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Titlestu's weather blog – thoughts about northern arizona's weather – mostly

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another long break and a long delay to monsoonal flow to flagstaff
unsettled weather could delay fire season
major snowstorm to hit flagstaff tonight
little pink dot means?
don’t forget! march is one of the wettest months.
finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range march outlook
one of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls
heavy snow to finish february
yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds
here’s an animation that makes the point.
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about stu’s blog http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?page_id=2
contact stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?page_id=1743
fires http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=85
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lake powell http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=81
monthly review http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=87
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outlooks http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=89
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uncategorized http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=1
winter storms http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=86
climate prediction center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
flagstaff schools’ snow schedule http://www.fusd1.org/snow/
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jet stream http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag192.html
navy nogaps forecasting https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html
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about stu’s blog http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?page_id=2
contact stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?page_id=1743
fires http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=85
flooding http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=88
lake powell http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=81
monthly review http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=87
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
outlooks http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=89
solar activity http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=62
uncategorized http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=1
winter storms http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=86
stu-in-flag.net http://stu-in-flag.net/
stu's monsoon mechanics page http://stu-in-flag.net/monsoon/monsoon.php
another long break and a long delay to monsoonal flow to flagstaff http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4272
el nino/la nina http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=94
lake powell http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=81
models http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=103
monsoon http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=101
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
outlooks http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=89
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joe d’aleo has written http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/heat_in_the_southwest_presages_the_southwest_monsoon_rains1/
monsoon mechanics http://stu-in-flag.net/monsoon/monsoon.php
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stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=1
unsettled weather could delay fire season http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4268
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4268
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
major snowstorm to hit flagstaff tonight http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4261
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4261
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
little pink dot means? http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4253
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
winter storms http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=86
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4253
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
don’t forget! march is one of the wettest months. http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4246
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4246
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range march outlook http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4243
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4243
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
one of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4237
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4237
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
heavy snow to finish february http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4234
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4234
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4230
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4230
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
here’s an animation that makes the point. http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4223
climate http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=97
models http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=103
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
outlooks http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=89
[…] http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4223
stu http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?author=16
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ibayernm52 http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/wxdailyhistory.asp?id=ibayernm52
local forecast http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getforecast?query=48.124386,11.566203
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another long break and a long delay to monsoonal flow to flagstaff http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4272
unsettled weather could delay fire season http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4268
major snowstorm to hit flagstaff tonight http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4261
little pink dot means? http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4253
don’t forget! march is one of the wettest months. http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4246
finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range march outlook http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4243
one of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4237
heavy snow to finish february http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4234
yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4230
here’s an animation that makes the point. http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?p=4223
climate http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=97
conspiracies http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=96
el nino/la nina http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=94
fires http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=85
flooding http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=88
hurricane http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=102
lake powell http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=81
models http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=103
monsoon http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=101
monthly review http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=87
northern arizona weather http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=3
outlooks http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=89
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uncategorized http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=1
white christmas http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=104
winter storms http://stu-in-flag.net/blog/?cat=86
flagstaff schools’ snow schedule http://www.fusd1.org/snow/
stu-in-flag.net http://stu-in-flag.net/
climate prediction center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
flagstaff schools’ snow schedule http://www.fusd1.org/snow/
icecap http://icecap.us/index.php
jet stream http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag192.html
navy nogaps forecasting https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html
pacific ocean conditions – el nino/la nina tracking http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/enso.shtml
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about stu’s blog contact stu categories fires flooding lake powell monthly review northern arizona weather outlooks solar activity uncategorized winter storms links climate prediction center flagstaff schools’ snow schedule icecap jet stream navy nogaps forecasting pacific ocean conditions – el nino/la nina tracking space weather stu-in-flag.net stu's monsoon mechanics page thoughts about northern arizona's weather – mostly about stu’s blog contact stu categories fires flooding lake powell monthly review northern arizona weather outlooks solar activity uncategorized winter storms stu's webpages stu-in-flag.net stu's monsoon mechanics page another long break and a long delay to monsoonal flow to flagstaff el nino/la nina, lake powell, models, monsoon, northern arizona weather, outlooks no responses » jun 242017 shareyes, my last post was on may 4. here we are several weeks, and european trips, later. since may 4th, i have travelled to prague, greece, italy, austria and the far south of germany. prague was a work trip to see some stunning work presented! greece was a week long sailing trip that came about because of the 40th birthday parties of a couple friends. athens is truly striking! italy was for a long weekend by the gardasee (lake garda). austria is in between, and with beautiful springtime green meadows against the rocky alps. ah! and now the weather! the parthenon at night, may 2017. of course it’s fire season. i’m surprised by the number of fires and the intensity of the fire near brian’s head. it’s been a fairly wet winter and spring for most of the southwest. one of the indicators of this is the meteoric rise in lake powell. it is the deepest it has been on this date since 2011. it could be the second deepest summer out of the last decade. the lake hit it’s low point, just shy of 3594 feet in early spring. currently, it is around the elevation of 3633 and still rising several inches per day. a wet year so far. lake powell water level from water-data.com. notice it’s more like the last 5 years. now, the monsoon season. i realize there have been several faux monsoon storms. they were more driven by frontal systems passing to the north of arizona, than a sustained moist flow from the south. the good news is that the heat has arrive to start the monsoon engine. joe d’aleo has written a nice summary of how the heat drives the flow. you can also take a look at my monsoon mechanics page. the less good news is that the current computer forecasts point to the flow starting very much to the east of flagstaff. it maybe after the 4th of july before the rains start in earnest. below is a recent gfs model out look for precipitation between now and july 4. you can see only a small amount of precipitation predicted during this time frame. precipitation outlook between now and july 4, 2017 from the gfs model on tropicaltidbits.com back to the better news, the outlook for the development of el nino is low. el nino conditions include the development of anomalous winds that can cut across the moisture flow, sending it elsewhere. hopefully, when the season starts it will be a normal one. oh wait, what is a normal monsoon season? share posted by stu at 4:21 am unsettled weather could delay fire season northern arizona weather comments off on unsettled weather could delay fire season may 042017 sharenext tuesday through thursday, a low pressure system is currently in the forecast to move across northern arizona. it should bring considerable water, but spread across the three day period. that should help with fire season after several weeks with high winds. i don’t write much about the spring winds. the driving force is the […] posted by stu at 8:04 pm major snowstorm to hit flagstaff tonight northern arizona weather comments off on major snowstorm to hit flagstaff tonight apr 012017 sharewelcome to april! unbelievably, all of the computer models have changed overnight. flagstaff will receive 5-7 feet of snow overnight! the national weather service is clearly scrambling to get a grip what they should do about this. no severe weather warnings have been issued. expect temperatures to drop severely this afternoon and early evening. snow […] posted by stu at 8:58 am little pink dot means? northern arizona weather, winter storms comments off on little pink dot means? mar 202017 sharecheck out the image below. the little pink dot over the flagstaff means that there is still a chance for march to have normal, or even a bit above normal precipitation. even with the warm temperatures over the weekend, there is a change coming. the storm track will be crossing arizona for the rest of […] posted by stu at 11:40 am don’t forget! march is one of the wettest months. northern arizona weather comments off on don’t forget! march is one of the wettest months. mar 152017 sharejuly and august are the wettest. they are followed by december and march. this is based on the average precipitation values at the flagstaff airport since 1950. the average precipitation for march is just barely over 2 inches. but wait! it’s been sunny and warm all month. way back when, it was sunny and warm […] posted by stu at 11:05 am finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range march outlook northern arizona weather comments off on finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range march outlook mar 092017 shareflagstaff has above average precipitation amounts for both the calendar year, and the water year (since 1 september). february had a final big storm at the end of the month to just cross the normal for the month. so far, march has been effectively dry. it looks like it’s going to stay the way for […] posted by stu at 12:00 pm one of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls northern arizona weather comments off on one of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls feb 282017 sharewith the flagstaff airport coming in at 16.3 inches, and many locations reporting similar results, for 8-12 inches in the actual weather service forecast, this was a heck of a foot on snow. this last storm was tricky to forecast with plenty of variability of the computer models. also, the track of the storm was […] posted by stu at 9:55 pm heavy snow to finish february northern arizona weather comments off on heavy snow to finish february feb 262017 sharefinally, the models have aligned. we’ll see if it holds. as you see below, heavy snowfall is on the way to the flagstaff area. a winter storm warning is in effect from monday evening through tuesday morning. as you look at the image below, you will notice that flagstaff is under the greenish section of […] posted by stu at 11:30 pm yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds northern arizona weather comments off on yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds feb 242017 sharemaybe one computer has made up it’s mind. the navy computer model is predicting a wet end to the february on a consistent basis. noaa’s gfs model is not repeatably predicting anything. on friday, two runs of the gfs model shows very light precipitation through the end of the month. then, there were two other […] posted by stu at 11:43 pm here’s an animation that makes the point. climate, models, northern arizona weather, outlooks comments off on here’s an animation that makes the point. feb 162017 sharethe computer gfs computer model is all over the place. here is an animation of 4 images. all 4 images report total project precipitation through next tuesday evening. notice, it hasn’t started to rain or snow at this time, so that the start time doesn’t matter. the precipitation amounts are widely different. it looks like […] posted by stu at 11:33 am older entries stuinflag stuinflag nws flagstaff weather story nws flagstaff weather storymunich, germanyglockenbachviertel, münchen, bayern temp: 74.4 f (23.6 c) (23.6) humidity: 55% wind: calm pressure: 27.88" (944.0 mb) station: ibayernm52 hardware: acurite pro weather center updated: june 27, 12:21 pm cest local forecastglobal sea surface temperatures/anomaly global sea surface temperatures/anomalydaily sunrise/sunset current time 03:23 current event night time astronomical twilight starts 03:25 nautical twilight starts 04:06 civil twilight starts 04:43 sunrise 05:13 sunset 19:46 civil twilight ends 20:16 nautical twilight ends 20:53 astronomical twilight ends 21:34 flagstaff, az recent posts another long break and a long delay to monsoonal flow to flagstaff unsettled weather could delay fire season major snowstorm to hit flagstaff tonight little pink dot means? don’t forget! march is one of the wettest months. finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range march outlook one of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls heavy snow to finish february yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds here’s an animation that makes the point. categories climate conspiracies el nino/la nina fires flooding hurricane lake powell models monsoon monthly review northern arizona weather outlooks pontification record shark oil barometer skew-t solar activity storm glass uncategorized white christmas winter storms archives archives select month june 2017 may 2017 april 2017 march 2017 february 2017 january 2017 december 2016 november 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 october 2008 september 2008 general links flagstaff schools’ snow schedule stu-in-flag.net weather/climate links climate prediction center flagstaff schools’ snow schedule icecap jet stream navy nogaps forecasting pacific ocean conditions – el nino/la nina tracking space weather stu's monsoon mechanics page log-in/log-out/etc log in entries rss comments rss wordpress.org home about stu’s blog contact stu total petition signatures © 2011 stu's weather blog suffusion theme by sayontan sinha 5 visitors online now 2 guests, 3 bots, 0 members max visitors today: 6 at 12:34 am utc this month: 42 at 06-26-2017 03:31 pm utc this year: 86 at 03-09-2017 03:59 pm utc all time: 1611 at 04-27-2012 06:53 pm utc


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