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Titlenoise of the crowd noise of the crowd - interesting things about public opinion - interesting things about public opinion

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the lib dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of remain? latest polling matters
3 reasons there won’t be an early election
worries about climate change are at record levels. is this a new chapter in public opinion?
why fake news might not be such a problem for uk liberals: polling matters
tory governments age well in the memory. labour governments turn sour.
how past prime ministers are seen: polling matters
corbyn and may’s relative strengths: polling matters
winners and losers from 2016: polling matters
us election polls: what went wrong?
how low can labour’s support go? what past elections & european politics suggest – polling matters
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noise of the crowd http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/
the lib dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of remain? latest polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/lib-dem-fightback-high-can-support-go-party-remain-latest-polling-matters/
liberal democrats http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/liberal-democrats/
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3 reasons there won’t be an early election http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/3-reasons-wont-early-election/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/polling-matters/
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worries about climate change are at record levels. is this a new chapter in public opinion? http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/worries-climate-change-record-levels-new-chapter-public-opinion/
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climate and energy poll https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/public-attitudes-tracking-survey
annual poll https://www.lowyinstitute.org/lowyinstitutepollinteractive/climate-change-and-energy/
why fake news might not be such a problem for uk liberals: polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/fake-news-might-not-problem-uk-liberals-polling-matters/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/polling-matters/
yougov poll http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g9yhnt6pqu/channel4results_170130_fakenews_w.pdf
tory governments age well in the memory. labour governments turn sour. http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/tory-governments-age-well-memory-labour-governments-turn-sour/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
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how past prime ministers are seen: polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/past-prime-ministers-seen-polling-matters/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/polling-matters/
corbyn and may’s relative strengths: polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/corbyn-mays-relative-strengths-polling-matters/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/polling-matters/
is here http://opinium.co.uk/may-leads-corbyn-range-measures/
winners and losers from 2016: polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/winners-and-losers-from-2016-polling-matters/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/polling-matters/
us election polls: what went wrong? http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/us-election-polls-what-went-wrong/
bad polling http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/bad-polling/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/polling-matters/
u.s. http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/u-s/
how low can labour’s support go? what past elections & european politics suggest – polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/how-low-can-labours-support-go-what-past-elections-european-politics-suggest-polling-matters/
historical polls http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/historical-polls/
politics http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/politics/
polling matters http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/category/polling-matters/
previously compared http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/past-elections-suggest-labours-prospects-are-better-than-most-commentators-think/
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the climate debate has gone wrong – this year that can change http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/the-climate-debate-has-gone-wrong-this-year-that-can-change/
how decc is wasting money on its new opinion poll http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/how-decc-is-wasting-money-on-its-new-opinion-poll/
is euroscepticism collapsing, or is it just bad polling? http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/is-euroscepticism-collapsing-or-is-it-just-bad-polling/
don’t just believe what you’re told about polls http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/don%e2%80%99t-just-believe-what-you%e2%80%99re-told-about-polls/
‘belief’ in climate change is the wrong goal http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/%e2%80%98belief%e2%80%99-in-climate-change-is-the-wrong-goal/
climate change: the social attitudes survey is old news, but the lessons are important http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/the-social-attitudes-survey-is-old-news-but-the-lessons-are-important/
the limited impact of climategate http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/the-limited-impact-of-climategate/
fracking has hardly any public support – but opponents have a tough choice http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/fracking-has-hardly-any-public-support-but-opponents-have-a-tough-choice/
opponents of scottish independence shouldn’t be complacent about winning http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/opponents-of-scottish-independence-shouldnt-be-complacent-about-winning/
climate change opinion is now up to pre-climategate levels http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/climate-change-opinion-is-now-up-to-pre-climategate-levels/
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noise of the crowd interesting things about public opinion search for: the lib dem fightback – how high can their support go as the party of remain? latest polling matters posted in liberal democrats, politics, polling matters on april 17th, 2017 by leo – be the first to comment this article was originally published on political betting. the snp lost a referendum and won a landslide. could the lib dems do something similar by becoming the party of remain voters? this week’s pb/polling matters opinium poll suggests the party could do well with a relentless focus on stopping brexit. but it also shows that a single-issue stop brexit party would be unlikely to win more than a quarter of voters. only around 11% currently say they’d vote lib dem, but the opinium poll found 41% of the public would definitely vote lib dem or would consider doing so, including 47% of current labour voters. winning over half of those considering the lib dems would put the party above even its record 2010 vote. so should the party try to gain these voters with a promise that they would keep the uk in the eu? in part the poll backs this up. among those who voted remain, 60% would at least consider the lib dems – around 29% of voters. but this overstates the opportunities for the lib dems in focusing on stopping brexit. most remainers don’t care enough about staying in the eu to put it above all other issues. in another question the poll found that only 22% agree with the statement “my top priority when deciding who to vote for is supporting a party that will try to stop brexit”. this 22% may be a more realistic limit for how far a stop brexit party could go. this still suggests the lib dems could double their vote share with an anti-brexit focus. even winning over just those who strongly agree with the statement, and aren’t already lib dem voters, would add 7pts to the lib dem vote. with labour now facilitating brexit, the field is clear for the lib dems to be the party of remain. the poll suggests this focus could serve the lib dems well, in comparison with their 2015 vote. but a single-issue stop brexit party is unlikely to win more than one in four voters. unless the uk’s exit goes so badly that public opinion changes, this focus can take a party from fourth to third, but it can’t take them from third to second. you can listen to the latest pb/polling matters podcast here: 3 reasons there won’t be an early election posted in politics, polling matters on march 28th, 2017 by leo – 5 comments the tories’ vast poll lead is prompting speculation theresa may will call an early election. despite the government’s repeated denials, the rumours won’t stop. but here are three reasons – which i haven’t seen mentioned elsewhere – why the government might not go ahead this year: 1. boundary changes won’t go through until after the september 2018 review. they will make elections easier for the tories. calling an election on the old boundaries would both forego the benefit of the changes for a few more years and would mean having to find candidates for seats that won’t exist at the next election. not impossible but an avoidable pain. 2. theresa may might hope to be pm for 8-12 years. that’s how long the most successful seem to be able to last. let’s say she’s thinking about the lower end of this and expects to stand down around 2024. if that’s the case, a 2017 election would mean fighting another by 2022. the first election might shock labour enough it gets rid of corbyn, elects a new leader and becomes a plausible opposition by 2022. that second election could be quite tough. on the other hand – if may thinks labour is unlikely to improve much by 2020 – holding off another three years means she might only have to fight one election. she can leave by mid-2024, giving her successor time to get ready for the following year’s election. this means, from the perspective of may’s entire prime ministership, the question isn’t just “will labour improve by 2020?”, but is also “will labour be better in 2020 than it would be in 2022 after having lost a 2017 election?”. of course if she wants to go beyond eight years she’ll have to fight at least two elections regardless. but then if she wanted to go past 11 years, an early election now would mean fighting three over her time in office. 3. the lib dems are mostly talked about as a threat to labour, but they’re more likely to stop may calling an early election. it’s certainly true that their pro-eu message appeals to some 2015 labour voters and potential converts. but the tories have 24 seats with a majority of less than 10,000 over the lib dems, compared with labour’s 6 seats. given the lib dems’ improvement since 2015, many of those seats are likely to fall. in an early election may could be confident that her gains from labour would outweigh these losses to the lib dems. but that won’t be much compensation to the 24 tory mps who might lose their seats and are, presumably, arguing against an early election. i talked about these issues, along with scotland and northern ireland, on this week’s polling matters podcast with keiran and rob: worries about climate change are at record levels. is this a new chapter in public opinion? posted in climate sock, u.s. on march 16th, 2017 by leo – comments off on worries about climate change are at record levels. is this a new chapter in public opinion? public opinion is rarely tidy but sometimes there are clear trends in the popular mood. a new poll suggests there has been a shift in public opinion about climate change, with a surge in worries about the threat. since polls began asking about climate change, worries about the issue in rich english-speaking countries (the places where denial has been prominent) have gone through the following broad stages: up to 2007: public discovery of the problem and increasing worries (with a peak around 2000, a fall after 9/11 and a recovery until around 2007) 2008-2010: rapid decline in worries, accelerated by copenhagen and the 2009 email hack 2011-2016: slow increase in worries, back to around 2009 levels the new poll – of the us public, by gallup – suggests we may be in a new stage. concern about climate change appears to have past 2009 levels and to now exceed all previous peaks. 2017-onwards: concern increasing to record levels (?) is that a justifiable conclusion? a problem is that this is just one poll. it’s the only one i’m aware of that shows concern to now be greater than it’s ever previously been. it might be a rogue result, outside the margin of error. but… it’s 8-points up on the previous year’s poll, and 4 above any previous. this poll would have to have been a real statistical fluke for the true level of public concern not be the highest since at least 2009. and a different poll, from the uk, suggests something similar. various people have asked the “is climate change real” question (fwiw, i don’t like the question – it’s confused by political identity and doesn’t reflect what people actually want done about emissions – but these results are so striking i can’t ignore it). since 2009 responses to this question were uncannily static. but in february this year eciu’s poll showed a sudden jump. so that’s more evidence that we’ve started a new chapter. yet i’m still not sure it’s definitive that worries are at record levels. we can probably say concern about climate change is greater than it’s been any time since 2010 – in the us at least – but there’s not enough evidence to be sure it’s at the highest level ever. one issue is gallup’s chart shows only the percentage that worry a great deal about climate change. in the equivalent chart last year they combined it with those that worry a fair amount. if we do the same for this year’s data, we find worries this year are no higher than they were in 2008 and are still lower than they were in 1999-2000. so if we’re still, if not on the fence, at least within touching distance of it, what more evidence might persuade us that worries really are smashing records? in the uk, the government’s quarterly climate and energy poll asks a question once a year on concern about climate change. the question uses the same wording that mori has run since 2005, giving a nice comparison that will allow us to test the theory. the next wave, due to be published in late april, should ask that question, so we’ll have more evidence soon about whether concern is rising. and in australia, the lowy institute has run the same climate question since 2006 in its annual poll. the next wave should be out in june. in both that and the uk poll, concern in 2016 was still some way below the pre-2010 peak, although the highest for a few years. i wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s data shows worries are up but not yet at record levels. putting it together, the evidence is clear that worries about climate change have been rising for several years. last year concern was around where it was in the late 2000s. this year, either worries have stopped increasing or they’re moving towards record levels. it may be too early to say for sure but the initial evidence suggests concern is still rising. why fake news might not be such a problem for uk liberals: polling matters posted in politics, polling matters on february 16th, 2017 by leo – comments off on why fake news might not be such a problem for uk liberals: polling matters on this week’s polling matters, keiran and i were joined by harry carr, who run’s sky’s polling. we talked about an interesting yougov poll on ‘fake news’, which suggested that people in the uk are relatively unlikely to believe made-up stories about immigrants and benefit scroungers. we also discussed the new polling matters/opinium poll on immigration, which found public opinion to be more nuanced than it might seem. tory governments age well in the memory. labour governments turn sour. posted in politics on february 12th, 2017 by leo – comments off on tory governments age well in the memory. labour governments turn sour. this article originally appeared on political betting no recent prime minister was popular as they approached the end of their time in power. each of the last five had net satisfaction scores – the proportion satisfied minus the proportion dissatisfied – of well below minus 20 points during their final month, according to mori’s satisfaction data. thatcher was the most unpopular, with 71% dissatisfied with the job she was doing. the least unpopular was gordon brown, who still had the support of 35% before the 2010 election. if it seems surprising that the scotsman was less reviled than the others, that’s because of what’s happened after his defeat. in the time since each prime minister left office, the collective memory of their effectiveness has been transformed. this week’s opinium poll for the pb / polling matters podcast found that thatcher has gone from being the least popular recent prime minister, when she left office, to the most popular now. over the same time, blair and brown have gone from the prime ministers with the joint-highest satisfaction scores (along with major) as they were leaving downing street, to being seen as the ones that did the worst job. with cameron moving up the ranking, the picture is clear – tory governments are remembered increasingly well over time, while labour governments become less popular. the reason for this is labour voters. while current tory voters have views that you’d expect – overwhelmingly believing tory prime ministers did a good job and thinking the opposite of labour ones – labour voters are more reluctant to support their party’s leaders. only one in three thinks blair did a good job (he’s more popular among lib dems) while even fewer think the same of gordon brown. this ambivalence does labour no good. tory voters can draw on several examples of what they consider successful prime ministers from their side. if even the currently diminished ranks of labour voters don’t believe that past labour governments were worthwhile, it’s hard to see who will resist the accusation that labour administrations spend too much for too little benefit. there are many reasons that labour supporters might come up with to justify their doubts about blair and brown’s governments. but tory voters have forgotten their previous reservations about the woman who left office as the least popular prime minister in recent history. if labour is to become an election-winning machine again, it will need to do the same for its own past leaders. how past prime ministers are seen: polling matters posted in politics, polling matters on february 8th, 2017 by leo – comments off on how past prime ministers are seen: polling matters this week’s episode discussed the latest opinium/polling matters data, which looked at how past prime ministers are seen. we also talked about the chances of a possible labour leadership challenge and whether there’ll be a vote of no confidence in the speaker. the first part of the show covered german politics, where the spd’s new leader has given the party a rapid boost in the polls. corbyn and may’s relative strengths: polling matters posted in politics, polling matters on february 1st, 2017 by leo – comments off on corbyn and may’s relative strengths: polling matters polling matters is running weekly polls with opinium. this week we talked about new data showing that corbyn trails may on a series of characteristics that people might want in a leader – strength, caring about people like me, and capable as/of being prime minister. the opinium data is here. the first half of the show discusses northern ireland in the context of its forthcoming election and the complications of brexit. winners and losers from 2016: polling matters posted in politics, polling matters on december 17th, 2016 by leo – comments off on winners and losers from 2016: polling matters in the last episode of the year, keiran, rob and i talked about a listeners’ poll of 2016’s winners and losers, and the defining moments of the year: us election polls: what went wrong? posted in bad polling, politics, polling matters, u.s. on november 9th, 2016 by leo – comments off on us election polls: what went wrong? keiran and i recorded a polling matters podcast at 5am on election morning, responding to the results and debating what went wrong with the polls. you can listen here: how low can labour’s support go? what past elections & european politics suggest – polling matters posted in historical polls, politics, polling matters on october 27th, 2016 by leo – comments off on how low can labour’s support go? what past elections & european politics suggest – polling matters on polling matters this week i talked about what might happen to labour’s support over the rest of the parliament. regular readers of this site might remember that i’ve previously compared how oppositions have stood in the polls 18 months after elections with how they then did at the subsequent election (using mark pack’s brilliant collection of historical polling data). for this week’s episode i updated this analysis with the 2015 election (which was an outlier, as labour underperformed how they’d be expected to do – largely because of the polling miss). the analysis suggests that, between this point in a parliament and the subsequent election, polling leads typically roughly halve. this happens regardless of whether it’s the government or the opposition that’s leading in the polls at this point. i found this surprising and it seemed like it can’t be right. i had thought that this was typically a low point for governments, and that they usually recover support by the time an election comes. but the evidence doesn’t really seem to bear that out – and it appears the opposition did gain ground ahead of the 2001 and 2005 elections. obviously this is a crude model. it doesn’t take into account many things. but for what it’s worth it suggests that labour – currently about 12pts down – is on course for a 6pt election defeat, which is less than i’d expected. but here’s another view on the question of labour’s polling floor. if we look at other centre-left european parties that, like labour, were scoring between 35-45% in the late ’90s and early ’00s, we don’t see much evidence that labour is currently at the lowest point it can get. all of those parties have scored lower than labour in national parliamentary elections. most of the others have gone below 25%. clearly different electoral systems – and national politics – are an enormous factor. what happens in one country isn’t inevitably replicated in another. but this alone suggests that labour has no assurance it can call on the support of 30% of the public at a general election. other major centre-left parties have found that the ground can indeed fall away beneath them. i talked about this, along with ukip and theresa may’s in-tray, with keiran and asa bennett of the telegraph. audio: video: « 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