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from the editor's desk about the magazine about the editor 02jan17 searching for clues on the future of tech by john falcioni 1 comment categories: engineering january is normally a month of change—new calendars, new resolutions. but this month, after a hard-fought presidential race, the inauguration of donald j. trump as the 45th president of the united states seems like a step into the unknown. even trump’s supporters feel largely uncertain about an administration led by a businessman who has never before held public office. predicting the positions of a trump administration, including matters relating to technology, is challenging because the only cues have been often-conflicting comments during the campaign. there are, however, clues to the future of the tech landscape under the new administration found in the early positions on five key areas: manufacturing and related jobs, space exploration, infrastructure, research and development, and the internet of things. for example, trump’s call for the return of manufacturing jobs to the u.s. found widespread support. but the genie may be out of the bottle. as this magazine and others have written, machines are learning to perform jobs previously held by factory workers. the washington post recently reported on a boston consulting group prediction that, by 2025, the operating cost of a welding robot will be less than $2 per hour, compared to the $25 per hour that a human welder earns today in the u.s. advanced manufacturing is transforming factory automation and there’s no going back. one technology area where trump has been specific has been his support for space exploration. last october, he told a rally in sanford, fla., “human exploration of our entire solar system by the end of this century should be nasa’s focus and goal.” trump has supported private-public partnerships to increase space activity and economic growth. a robust space initiative could spur national pride and boost interest in engineering and science careers, much as it did 50 years ago. a much-discussed infrastructure improvement measure has received general bipartisan support from lawmakers and the public. infrastructure spending would spur tech and blue-collar jobs. but trump’s trillion-dollar ten-year plan has some lawmakers concerned because the funding model is sketchy and leans on enticing the private sector with tax credits. early comments by the new administration on federal funding for r&d portends possible reexamination of government research priorities. initiatives such as manufacturing usa, which brings together industry, academia, and federal partners through a network of advanced manufacturing institutes, will be under a microscope. trump has been on record supporting u.s. manufacturing, so manufacturing usa’s $70 million budget should be safe. funding for research in other areas, especially those supported by the department of energy, may experience a different fate based on the new president’s comments on the energy sector. the fifth area i will be watching is how trump and his team deal with the complexities of applying the internet of things to u.s. industry. companies such as ge are trying to shed their old, industrial image, becoming instead global iot providers focusing on delivering software, networks, and artificial intelligence. (ge has become a major proponent of high-tech jobs training. read about its plans in this month’s cover story, “filling the talent gap,” beginning on page 28.) most candidates who gain elected office trade much of the rhetoric of the campaign for pragmatism imposed by the restrictions of the office they win. maybe they also discover that the words that got them elected don’t make as much sense after election day. that’s human nature—and also the game of politics. 01dec16 flipping the switch on renewables by john falcioni leave a comment categories: engineering imagine flipping on the light switch at home and wondering: will the lights come on? those of us lucky enough to live in parts of the world where the electric grid is robust rarely consider that question unless a strong storm or unusual circumstances cause a blackout. but we can’t take the grid for granted. it’s the world’s largest supply chain with zero inventory, says don sadoway, the professor of materials science and engineering at the massachusetts institute of technology who has been called the socrates of batteries. i met the dapper sadoway a few weeks back at the mit technology review emtech conference in cambridge, mass., but he’s no newcomer to the energy space (you can view both his emtech presentation and his 2012 ted talk online). his lab invented a liquid metal battery that some—including investor bill gates—think will revolutionize the way energy is stored and pave the way to broadening the use of renewable energy. sadoway’s company, ambri, promises to deliver electricity where and when it’s needed at low cost. storage is one of the hurdles renewables such as wind and solar have to overcome in order to become mainstream. just as energy storage may be the key enabler to promoting the diversity of our energy sources, technologies that increase the connection between electricity producers and end users are at the heart of the smart grid—a combination of sensors and controllers plus a process for using information and communication technologies to integrate the components across the electric system. those technological advances will contribute to what is expected to be the most fundamental change to the u.s. power system since its inception a century ago. engineers will be on the forefront of developing the new products to improve the efficiency and resiliency in the evolving grid. some of the products that make the grid more interconnected and responsive include advanced meters, automated feeder switches, voltage regulators, and other controls technology intended to give the grid stability and resilience. “by increasing the analytic data available to grid operators and energy users, smart technologies create an information bridge linking generation, transmission, and distribution with consumers,” concluded a report this year from the pew charitable trusts, an independent, non-partisan organization. “these capabilities allow grid managers and end users to make more informed decisions about how and when to use energy, based on grid requirements and price signals. and the additional information helps utilities manage their increasingly diverse generation portfolios.” improving the efficiency and robustness of the grid—and enhancing the capabilities of renewable energy sources that connect to it—is important, but even more critical is safeguarding it. grid and security experts agree that the grid is becoming increasingly and dangerously susceptible to cyber and physical threats. a few months ago, senior editor dan ferber took on the challenge to coordinate and serve as lead editor for a package of related articles addressing these important energy topics. this month’s comprehensive special focus on the grid is the culmination of ferber’s hard work. our coverage provides a glimpse of what the electric grid of tomorrow might look like, even if we haven’t yet fully flipped on the switch on renewable energy. 02nov16 a machine that thinks for you by john falcioni leave a comment categories: engineering i was visiting a friend a few weeks ago when he started bragging about how he set up an amazon echo in his home office. “alexa, what is the weather outside,” he volunteered unfettered—even as i could see the sun shining brightly out his window. in a few seconds, a rather pleasant computerized woman’s voice filled the room confirming my observation. “listen to this,” he continued. “alexa, play elton john’s ‘candle in the wind’.” a few moments later, the song came on. it was getting irritating, so i decided to have a little fun. before my friend could stop me, i commanded alexa to place an order for a brown, four-shelf bookshelf. “your order has been placed,” alexa responded. the next five minutes were frantic. my friend desperately fluttered on his keyboard trying to find customer support, but the answer was obvious. “alexa,” i said sternly, “cancel the bookshelf order.” she confirmed. google’s co-founder, larry page, once described the perfect search engine as a machine that “understands exactly what you mean and gives you back exactly what you want.” if he’s right, then the intersection of artificial intelligence and voice recognition is the pivot point. google, the largest purveyor of search results on the internet, has invested heavily—both dollars and engineering prowess—in data mining and artificial intelligence. the result is a technology likened to the talking computer on star trek, or a souped-up siri, apple’s voice-controlled virtual assistant. but google claims its google assistant will be ever-more powerful than apple’s siri, microsoft’s cortana, or amazon’s alexa. sundar pichai, google’s chief executive, says that machine learning is at a point where a virtual assistant is all we need to solve all our information-related needs. google assistant will learn our habits, our likes and dislikes, and have access to just about all our confidential information. it will have the processing strength to understand and contextualize what we want and how we want it. it will book a trip, buy a coat, order a pizza, and make an appointment with a favorite hairdresser. building something better than alexa, siri, and cortana is ambitious, but as henry lieberman, a pioneer of human-computer interaction at mit’s media lab, told associate editor alan brown in this month’s cover story, “language will become a means—not to help users understand a product more easily, but to have the product understand its users.” the impact of harnessing the power of voice—and cognitive—recognition on product and systems design is still unclear. but we’ve seen significant strides in deep neural networks, referred to as deep learning. these are software constructs that enable machines to teach themselves how to recognize complex patterns. they have also greatly improved speech recognition. responding to public concern over the impact of machine learning on robots and intelligent systems, including factory automation and self-driving cars, a consortium of technology companies, including amazon, facebook, google, ibm, and microsoft, recently formed the partnership on artificial intelligence to benefit people and society. its focus is on ways to protect humans in the face of rapid advances in ai, and the potential for government regulation of the technology. sure, alexa understood my command to cancel my joke order for the bookcase—that was trivial. but it’s critical that the engineering community recognizes the importance of building ai into the design of technologies in a way that doesn’t violate ethical mores. that’s no laughing matter. 10oct16 rewriting the rules of product development by john falcioni leave a comment categories: engineering it was last november when those of us who still subscribe to the print edition of the new york times received a relatively uninspiring cardboard insert with our sunday papers. the instructions provided—“fold here, bend there”—were hardly different from those printed on a u-haul cardboard packing box. but the times promised the reward would be worth the effort. after assembling it, downloading the smartphone app, and inserting my phone in the box, the payoff was unexpected. before my eyes, the box and smartphone were transformed into a 21st century view-master. but this wasn’t my mother’s stereoscope, it was an addictive immersive experience. the virtual-reality initiative is a collaboration between the times and google on a project called nyt vr. more than one million google cardboard viewers were shipped to times readers last year, showcasing a unique way to experience powerful storytelling. the first story the times delivered, “the displaced,” captured the plight of children from south sudan, eastern ukraine, and syria who were caught in the global refugee crisis. it immersed the viewer virtually inside the striking video images. you could look up to see the sky on the video or look down to see the soil. you could look back behind you or to the sides. other films followed, including a visual account of the candlelight vigils following the november 2015 terrorist attack on paris. today, nyt vr is also being used in many classrooms to help students learn about the world in visually powerful ways. by collaborating with google and other virtual-reality developers on this unique project, the 165-year-old newspaper, often referred to as the gray lady, leapfrogged online and digital storytellers. this is one of the ways, outside of the electronic gaming industry, in which the benefits of the immersive power of virtual reality has reached consumers. for years, engineers have saved time and money using simulation and optimization software tools. these tools have brought virtual models to the screen and have fostered powerful multidisciplinary and collaborative product-development processes for designers. the use of virtual-reality technologies, however, has been an elusive goal. but now there is a clearer understanding of what that technology can deliver. major backing from nasa, autodesk and microsoft on industry research—combined with support from apple, facebook, and sony on the development of lower-cost mixed reality systems—is helping to bring design and visualization closer together. the technologies that comprise these advanced computing platforms, ranging from virtual reality to augmented or mixed reality, are beginning to rewrite the rules of product development. as our cover promises this month, we are sharing with you some of the leading developments of this transformative trend. and even if we’re not providing you with a do-it-yourself vr viewer with the magazine, the word pictures that our writers and editors have painted are sure to stimulate all your senses. 20sep16 the human capital of manufacturing by john falcioni leave a comment categories: engineering even if politics isn’t your cup of tea, this year’s presidential election has been hard to ignore. its twists and turns wickedly resemble more the new j.k. rowling fantasy novel than a noble competition to lead the most powerful country in the world. one of the salvos being slung from one camp to the other involves opinions on the value of the north american free trade agreement (nafta). at its core, the debate centers on whether nafta is bad for american manufacturers and workers because it enables cheap-labor countries like mexico to take manufacturing jobs away from the united states. putting politics aside—and that’s no small feat given the existing climate—opinions on the causes of middle-income job losses in the united states include both economic forces and, some will argue, technology advances. a recent column in the wall street journal points to two interesting perspectives worth considering. one is an essay in foreign affairs by dartmouth economist douglas a. irwin, who says that between 2007 and 2009, the united states lost nearly nine million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate up to 10 percent and, seven years later, the economy is still recovering. even as trade commands broad public support, a significant minority of the electorate—about a third—opposes it. these critics come from both sides of the political divide, but they tend to be lower-income, blue-collar workers who are the most vulnerable to economic change. for these workers, “neither political party has taken their concerns seriously, and both parties have struck trade deals that the workers think have cost jobs,” says irwin. he argues that trade is but one reason some blue collar workers have lost their jobs. another is technological advances that impact millions and occurs without enough formal retraining of displaced workers. still, “technological change is far from the only factor affecting u.s. labor markets in the last 15 years,” argues mit economist david h. autor in a paper published last year in the journal of economic perspectives. he notes the deceleration of wage growth, changes in occupational patterns, and dislocations in the u.s. labor market brought on by rapid globalization as the main reasons, but admits that in various ways these are linked with the spread of automation and technology. “advances in information and communications technologies have changed job demands in u.s. workplaces directly and also indirectly … altering competitive conditions for u.s. manufacturers and workers.” but “jobs are made up of many tasks,” autor says, and while automation and computerization can substitute for some of them, understanding the interaction between technology and employment requires thinking about more than just substitution. in the end, technology has replaced some traditionally middle-education jobs, but this is the group that is also easiest to retrain. engineers have radically simplified manufacturing environments allowing for more autonomous and streamlined operations. but as autor puts it, “human capital investment must be at the heart of any long-term strategy for producing skills that are ‘complemented by’ rather than ‘substituting for’ by technological change.” 02aug16 enabling technology for a better fit by john falcioni leave a comment categories: engineering with the trepidation of an old dog in a new home, i strapped a fitbit on my wrist a few months ago hoping i’d find its religion. i haven’t looked back since. mind you, it’s not like the activity-monitoring device has turned me into a triathlete. i’m no more an avid runner or cyclist today than i was at the beginning of the year, but i’ve certainly become more aware of my activity. my fitbit tells me how many steps i take, how many miles i walk, how many stairs i climb, how often my heart beats, and how long and how well i sleep. it also counts the calories i burn and tells me when i’m slacking off from my daily routine so i can get back to my personal peak performance level. with the sensing device on my wrist i’m more motivated to opt to walk up and down stairs instead of taking the escalator; i go for more frequent and longer walks than i used to; and try to get up from behind my desk now and do a little stretching every hour or so. i won’t say that the goal of 10,000 steps daily, recommended by the american heart association, has become an obsession, but it’s now an objective i care about. my fitbit is essentially my personal internet of things. like a fitbit for the factory floor, the industrial iot, with its network of internet sensors and tracking technologies, monitors the health of machines and manufacturing equipment. it detects malfunctions, deviations, and malnutrition when supplies are low. but unlike personal devices that will track a person’s activity regardless of age or fitness level, it’s not always easy to connect or retrofit plant equipment in a way for it to embrace and engage the iot. connecting a fitbit or other similar health tracking device to its enabling software is a lot easier than connecting a milling machine to the cloud. in some cases, it isn’t even that the equipment is too old to connect to sensors. some equipment as young as 20 or even 10 years old can’t easily be hooked up to monitoring sensors and connect it to the internet. some manufacturers also fear that sensors can occasionally be finicky and make plant equipment difficult to troubleshoot. that said, a recent ic market drivers report projected that worldwide systems revenues for applications connecting to the iot will nearly double between 2015 and 2019, and could be more than $124 billion by 2020. the report, which is published by ic insights, a semiconductor market research company, said that during that same time period, new connections to the iot could grow from about 1.7 billion in 2015 to nearly 3.1 billion in 2019. ultimately, the business case for the iot is there: reduce manufacturing costs and improve roi, and that’s true even in cases when investments are necessary to retrofit equipment. i’ve lost 10 pounds since i’ve been wearing my tracking device, so i’ve seen the roi of being connected. but like some manufacturing equipment, i too get a little finicky, especially on those days when my fitbit is telling me something i don’t want to know. 07jul16 where’s the beef? by john falcioni leave a comment categories: engineering the last time i remember my son wanting to stop at a mcdonald’s, he was mostly interested in the happy meal toy—he just graduated college, so it’s been a while. but we were in the car together a few weeks ago when we got hungry and pulled up to the first restaurant we saw, the one with the golden arches. to our surprise, that mcdonald’s had gone high-tech. i’m late to the party on this, but i subsequently learned that mcdonald’s create-your-taste has been around for a couple of years, mainly in southern california and before that in global test markets australia and new zealand. about 2,000 u.s. locations have kiosks that give customers the option to create their own burger by selecting the kind of beef patties they want, and then choosing among the trademark special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions, plus others: freshly roasted tomatoes, avocado, grilled mushrooms, and more. creating a made-to-order burger from a kiosk in a mcdonald’s, then having it delivered to your table by a friendly server, isn’t just a novelty. it is part of the giant fast-food chain’s surge to capitalize on a growing global food culture that includes fresher ingredients and healthier options. the most recent change in how we grow what we eat and how we consume it evolved with the trend toward organic products and through television food shows and chefs who helped celebritize the art of cooking and eating. the evolution of food, well before emeril lagasse and rachel ray, goes back to the development of the first commercially successful steel plow by john deere in 1837, and to the invention of pasteurization in 1864. what has been described as the second food epoch, or food 2.0, occurred in the 1900s when the agricultural revolution ushered in mechanization, chemical fertilizers, plant breeding, and hybrid crops. today’s wave of agricultural advancements, some of which are described in senior editor dan ferber’s article, “watching the crops grow,” on page 28, may be the bellwether of food 3.0. the use of sophisticated robotics and drones for certain crop-breeding processes is helping the farming industry pave the way to serve a growing population on earth, expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. but farmers alone are not the only ones concerned with whether there will be enough food to go around. in her captivating article, “re-engineering what we eat,” on page 34, contributor sara goudarzi reports that scientists and other researchers fear that earth itself may prove incapable of sourcing all the food we’ll need to feed ourselves, especially as the population grows in the next 35 years. without sufficient land and water to produce beef, the alternative may be to engineer in vitro meat in the lab from precursor cells. extensive research is also being conducted to genetically grow other meats and fish, as well as plants, in laboratory environments. a large amount of research is also being conducted on food printing, a process similar to the burgeoning 3-d printing we have become familiar with. even as i fancy myself a foodie, mcdonald’s—high-tech or not—remains a guilty pleasure, even when there is no one around hankering for a happy meal. but as the notion of ordering a “high-tech burger” grows, i can’t help but feel nostalgic over the old mcdonald’s jingle and fearful of what one featuring a synthetic meat burger and fries might sound like. « previous entries blogroll asme asmenews memagazine recent posts searching for clues on the future of tech flipping the switch on renewables a machine that thinks for you rewriting the rules of product development the human capital of manufacturing the editor john g. falcioni is editor-in-chief of mechanical engineering magazine, the flagship publication of the american society of mechanical engineers. archives january 2017 december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 october 2011 september 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 november 2009 february 201 january 2017 m t w t f s s « dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 twitter from john falcioni rt@billgates a lot to be optimistic about in 2017. life getting better for more people on our planet. @engineering4change 1 week ago well done. rt@ideo commuting plays an active role in making us creatively productive: ideo.to/dwvv4t by @cilimingras via @qz 2 weeks ago my column, "searching for clues on the future of tech" memagazineblog.org 2 weeks ago what but floppy disk car could sit in front of @medialab before #emtechmit tomorrow? is it @jason_pontin's? https://t.co/7cvcnlzwgl 3 months ago keep a close eye on this: rt@popsci white house sizes up future of a.i. po.st/xebllb… twitter.com/i/web/status/7… 3 months ago my column this month, "the human capital of manufacturing," is posted on memagazineblog.org 3 months ago an increase in customer retention by just 5% can lead to an increase in profits of 25% to 95% via @harvardhbs contentmarketinginstitute.com/2016/04/inboun… 8 months ago follow @johnfalcionitwitter from engineering for change rt @wssccouncil: why do communities slip back into unhygienic behaviours & how can they find the way back to #odf? new paper shows: https:/… 29 minutes ago rt @sv_socent: q5: tech - done mindfully - created equitably creates equity and provides access to the world #scalexdesign 31 minutes ago rt @ideorg: a5: #tech creates more opportunities for #socialenterprise (mobile sms) #socent #scalexdesign 31 minutes ago how to put people at the center of the design process twitter.com/kiwanja/status… 32 minutes ago how does tech affect scale of products? twitter.com/ideorg/status/… 32 minutes ago follow @engineer4changefriend us on facebook friend us on facebook friend asme friend asme friend engineering for change friend engineering for change friend asme nanotechnology institute friend asme nanotechnology institute blog at wordpress.com. from the editor's desk blog at wordpress.com. post to cancel


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