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Description a online journal about geopolitics from an american's perspective, discussing ways to reignite the spirit of a nation grown cold.

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fabius maximus website
stratfor: italy after the referendum. what comes next?
trump assembles a strategic and policy forum to better hear the 1%
trump prepares for a strong military response to jihadists. we’ll win anyway.
stratfor looks back at 2016, the breakout year for cybercrime
three important things to see in today’s jobs report
what happens to the losers of the public debate about climate change?
can the left adapt to the trump era? watch their climate activists for clues.
H2
H3
italy after the referendum stratfor, 6 december 2016.
we attack islam with invincible weapons
the year in cybercrime: exploiting the weakest link. by threat lens of stratfor, 30 november 2016.
see my full report at seeking alpha.
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global surface temperatures, flattish for 14 years (except for the 2015-16 el nino). october 2016 shows the el nino spike, but exaggerates the recent flatness. warming is concentrated in months of may, june, & july.
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stratfor: italy after the referendum. what comes next? https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/06/italy-after-the-referendum/
1 reply https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/06/italy-after-the-referendum/#comments
resign immediately after the results were announced https://www.stratfor.com/snapshots/italy-prime-minister-resigns-after-referendum-defeat
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/06/italy-after-the-referendum/#more-101003
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italy https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/italy/
matteo renzi https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/matteo-renzi/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/06/italy-after-the-referendum/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
trump assembles a strategic and policy forum to better hear the 1% https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/05/trump-strategic-and-policy-forum/
12 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/05/trump-strategic-and-policy-forum/#comments
lettres et opuscules inédits https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/b009jsq2pq/ref=as_li_tl?ie=utf8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeasin=b009jsq2pq&linkcode=as2&tag=thefabimaxiwe-20&linkid=0655aacd864c3fce284364d96de15361
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/20130823-project-new-america-e1432274246750.jpg
begin the process of changing our politics and our civic life http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/24/books/chapters/1224-1st-obama.html
spending projected to grow at over 2x faster than gdp http://fortune.com/2016/06/21/us-health-care-costs/
billionaires and far-right activists https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/11/16/new-about-team-trump/
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/05/trump-strategic-and-policy-forum/#more-100958
politics https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/politics/
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https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/05/trump-strategic-and-policy-forum/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
trump prepares for a strong military response to jihadists. we’ll win anyway. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/04/why-trumpswars-will-fail/
2 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/04/why-trumpswars-will-fail/#comments
speech by president bush http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/specials/attacked/transcripts/bushaddress_092001.html
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/20130924-crusade-jihad.jpg
pied piper http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/pied_piper_of_hamelin
a mass meme http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/meme
gulf states http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/arab_states_of_the_persian_gulf
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/04/why-trumpswars-will-fail/#more-100949
our long war https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/our-long-war/
clash of civilizations https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/clash-of-civilizations/
crusade https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/crusade/
donald trump https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/donald-trump/
islam https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/islam/
jihad https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/jihad/
samuel huntington https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/samuel-huntington/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/04/why-trumpswars-will-fail/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
stratfor looks back at 2016, the breakout year for cybercrime https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/03/stratfor-this-year-in-cybercrime/
1 reply https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/03/stratfor-this-year-in-cybercrime/#comments
threat lens https://www.stratfor.com/video/conversation-look-threat-lens-stratfors-newest-product
social engineering https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/watch-out-workplace-intruders
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/03/stratfor-this-year-in-cybercrime/#more-100930
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stratfor https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/stratfor/
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https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/03/stratfor-this-year-in-cybercrime/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
three important things to see in today’s jobs report https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/02/3-things-to-know-about-the-jobs-report/
leave a reply https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/02/3-things-to-know-about-the-jobs-report/#respond
my full report at seeking alpha http://seekingalpha.com/article/4027857-ignore-media-chatter-see-3-things-investors-see-todays-jobs-report
economics https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/economics-2/
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seeking alpha https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/seeking-alpha/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/02/3-things-to-know-about-the-jobs-report/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
what happens to the losers of the public debate about climate change? https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/02/effects-of-losing-the-climate-debate/
4 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/02/effects-of-losing-the-climate-debate/#comments
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/couverture_turning_the_tide_on_climate_change.jpg
turning the tide on climate change https://www.flickr.com/photos/47499059@n06/4350397427
james hansen’s famous senate testimony https://fabiusmaximus.com/2010/02/19/crusade/
little of the extreme weather activists predicted https://fabiusmaximus.com/2014/10/30/climate-change-good-news-botkin-72571/
surge of hurricanes after katrina https://fabiusmaximus.com/2014/12/02/climate-change-warnings-hurricanes-pause-activists-73724/
the predictions https://fabiusmaximus.com/2014/12/02/climate-change-warnings-hurricanes-pause-activists-73724/
the methane monster https://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/08/20/ipcc-defeats-the-methane-monster-apocalypse-88620/
see yesterday’s post https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/01/climate-change-advocacy-in-trump-era/
5 stages of grief for their campaign. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/12/04/5-stages-grief-for-climate-change-campaign-91571/
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/noaa-global-temperature-anomalies-october.png
from noaa https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/1/10/1955-2016
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/02/effects-of-losing-the-climate-debate/#more-100905
politics https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/politics/
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https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/02/effects-of-losing-the-climate-debate/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
can the left adapt to the trump era? watch their climate activists for clues. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/01/climate-change-advocacy-in-trump-era/
4 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/01/climate-change-advocacy-in-trump-era/#comments
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/climate-change-activist.jpg
no questions about climate change in the presidential debates https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/19/where-is-climate-change-in-the-trump-v-clinton-presidential-debates
environmental issues were not in the top 12 issues people associate with clinton http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/197108/issues-critical-trump-clinton.aspx
ranked near the bottom of the us public’s major policy concerns http://www.gallup.com/poll/167843/climate-change-not-top-worry.aspx
in october http://www.gallup.com/poll/196430/americans-continue-cite-economy-top-problem.aspx
november 28 column at slate http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/11/28/interview_on_cbc_about_trump_s_plan_to_gut_earth_science_at_nasa.html
ipcc’s ar5 working group i https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahukewjd2ctstnlqahvm0fqkhvahbtqqfggdmaa&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.climatechange2013.org%2fimages%2freport%2fwg1ar5_spm_final.pdf&usg=afqjcngqkdjyfm-1f-kd8kywk8a5hurauw&sig2=arjjj-7guzc8mdt2bmr-qg
4 scenarios described in ar5 https://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/07/13/coal-climate-apocalypse-87192/
the worst of these https://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/11/05/visions-of-dark-climate-future-90153/
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/01/climate-change-advocacy-in-trump-era/#more-100870
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about the great monetary policy experiment https://fabiusmaximus.com/financial-crisis/monetary-policy-experiment/
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a new industrial revolution has begun https://fabiusmaximus.com/future/next-industrial-revolution-68679-2/
end of the post-wwii geopolitical regime https://fabiusmaximus.com/future/economy-archive/
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fabius maximus website menu skip to content home about us authors our politics predictions: hits forecast fails & smackdowns contact us stratfor: italy after the referendum. what comes next? 1 reply summary:  brexit and trump’s election were followed by hysterical predictions of doom by experts, helping journalists manufacture exciting news for their apathetic audiences. italy’s citizens defied their centrist technocratic leaders, producing yet another round of ominous forecasts. for those who like their news straight and sober, here is an analysis of italy’s situation by stratfor. italy after the referendum stratfor, 6 december 2016. introduction italy’s voters have spoken loud and clear. during sunday’s referendum on constitutional reforms, more than 65% of the country’s electorate turned out. nearly 60% of voters rejected the measures, prompting prime minister matteo renzi to resign immediately after the results were announced, as promised. renzi’s quick resignation, coupled with the international market’s staid response to the vote’s outcome, suggests that the immediate repercussions will not be as dramatic as some in italy and abroad had expected. nevertheless, italy’s political and financial troubles will endure, as will its threat to the eurozone. continue reading → this entry was posted in europe, stratfor and tagged european union, italy, matteo renzi on 6 december 2016 by editor of the fabius maximus website. trump assembles a strategic and policy forum to better hear the 1% 12 replies summary: trump appoints an all-plutocrat “strategic and policy forum”. no need to guess what comes next. congratulate trump for running as a populist, the most effective political con in us history. it is the inevitable next step as our elites explore and exploit our gullibility. this can inspire us to push for reform of american politics, while we still can. “every nation has the government it deserves.” — joseph de maistre (lawyer, diplomat, philosopher), letter #76 dated 13 august 1811, published in lettres et opuscules inédits. in 2008 the world saw the strange spectacle of the left fantasizing about the coming era of obama. elected despite his minimal experience in office, they saw him as the one bringing hope and change, to “begin the process of changing our politics and our civic life“. this culminated in the mad award of the nobel peace prize to him in october 2009. in 8 years he broadened our wars, beginning unprecedented programs of surveillance, assassination, and suppression of whistle-blowers — plus the giving the health care industry the unaffordable cornucopia of obamacare (covering more people, but with health care spending projected to grow at over 2x faster than gdp). now the right does the same. elected as a populist, he prepares to rule as a ring-wing plutocrat, assisted by solid conservative majorities in both houses of congress — one of the largest political cons in us history. we need not guess what comes next. his executive appointees for domestic policy are mostly billionaires and far-right activists. in washington people are policy. continue reading → this entry was posted in politics and tagged donald trump, plutocracy, populism on 5 december 2016 by editor of the fabius maximus website. trump prepares for a strong military response to jihadists. we’ll win anyway. 2 replies summary: trump’s two key defense appointees, general michael flynn as national security advisor and general james mattis, suggest trump will intensify our war with jihadists. obama did so, and only helped spread the jihadist struggle. trump is unlikely to do better because this is primarily a cultural conflict — with america the overwhelming favorite to win. this is a repost from may 2015, about a lesson refused to learn. “they hate our freedoms: our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.” — speech by president bush, 20 september 2001. we attack islam with invincible weapons the people of fundamentalist islamic regimes suffer an unrelenting bombardment by a callous great power that casually and thoughtlessly destroys their society with high-tech weapons against which they have no defense. it attacks at a people’s most vulnerable point: their children, interrupting the delicate transfer of beliefs from one generation to another. radio, television, rock music, hollywood blockbusters, video games, the internet — all bombard their children with images of affluence, of easy sex, of enjoyable booze and drugs, of freedom from patriarchal authority — showing them a more attractive way of life. we attack them like a high-tech pied piper. western culture acts as a virus, with the american strain its most virulent. a more accurate analogy is that our culture acts as a mass meme displacing weaker ones. in silicon valley they speak of “mindspace.” america exports our ways to fill the minds of the world’s people — crowding out their native culture. martin van creveld describes this as “colonizing the future.” the vital centers of middle eastern islamic culture — egypt, iraq, iran, syria — adapt, albeit slowly and painfully. but what of the more fragile and rigid societies? such as saudi arabia (and the other gulf states)? to survive in the 21st century their leadership class must understand western methods. so they send their young men to western schools, from which most return infected with western values. they hide their vices behind the walls of their wealth, with weekends in paris and bahrain. but their people nonetheless know. this undermines the princes’ shallow authority and inevitably weakenes the princes’ alliance with the wahhabi ulema, the state’s foundation. continue reading → this entry was posted in our long war and tagged clash of civilizations, crusade, donald trump, islam, jihad, samuel huntington on 4 december 2016 by editor of the fabius maximus website. stratfor looks back at 2016, the breakout year for cybercrime 1 reply summary:the media and military experts thrill to news about the a-10 and the latest nuclear submarine. meanwhile new tools for cybercrime and cyberwar reshape the world. the fm website has covered these stories, puncturing the myths that fit them into a useful narrative for governments. here stratfor summarizes the events of 2016, the breakout year for cybercrime. the year in cybercrime: exploiting the weakest link. by threat lens of stratfor, 30 november 2016. forecast hackers will continue to rely on social engineering tactics to exploit their victims. state and state-sponsored actors will turn increasingly to cybercrime to advance their national interests. technological improvements to counter cybercrime will not protect against human vulnerability. analysis the rise of the internet and related technologies has transformed the world, revolutionizing nearly all aspects of everyday life, including crime. in september, the global cyber security leaders summit in berlin highlighted the cyberattack tactics that pose the greatest concern to security professionals. many of these coincide with the threats that we have covered over the past year on threat lens, stratfor’s new security portal. some transcend criminal activity and involve state or state-sponsored actors using tricks of the cybercriminal trade to advance their countries’ agendas. though the weapons used to conduct cyberattacks are relatively new — and rapidly evolving — the tactics have been around for centuries. over the past year, several major crimes have combined the new platforms and greater access that the information age affords with the age-old art of social engineering. the tactics described below are by no means the most sophisticated of their kind, but they have proved to be some of the most successful and enduring. continue reading → this entry was posted in cybersecurity & cyberwar, stratfor and tagged cybercrime on 3 december 2016 by editor of the fabius maximus website. three important things to see in today’s jobs report leave a reply the monthly jobs report creates a flood of exciting news stories.  most of these discuss small fluctuations in its many numbers, most of which are just statistical noise. here are three things you need to know about job and wage growth. they are the key trends seldom mentioned in the news. see my full report at seeking alpha. free registration at seeking alpha requires only an email address. this entry was posted in economics and tagged employment, seeking alpha on 2 december 2016 by editor of the fabius maximus website. what happens to the losers of the public debate about climate change? 4 replies summary: liberals believed that 2017 would mark a new start for us public policy to manage climate change. now conservatives agree, in a different sense. both are wrong. the weather will determine who will win. the stakes for both sides are large (as are the possible effects on the world). the consequences for the losers will be severe. just as we are unprepared for climate change (even repeat of past extreme weather), both sides are unprepared for defeat. this is an update and expansion of a post from march. cover of “turning the tide on climate change” by robert kandel (2009). “the future is not what is coming at us, but what we are headed for.” — jean-marie guyau in le genèse de l’idée du temps, translated by astragale. the us public policy debate about climate has run for 28 years, from james hansen’s famous senate testimony to trump’s threat to cut nasa’s climate research. this is one of the largest publicity campaigns in american history. many people assume that us politics will determine the eventual winner, skeptics or alarmists. i disagree: the weather will determine who wins the public policy debate. so far the weather has sided with the skeptics, with little of the extreme weather activists predicted. no surge of hurricanes after katrina (despite the predictions). no sign of the methane monster; little evidence that we have passed the long-predicted tipping points. so, despite the efforts of government agencies, academia, and many ngo’s, the public’s policy priorities have been unaffected (see yesterday’s post). as a result, activists are going thru the 5 stages of grief for their campaign. global surface temperatures, flattish for 14 years (except for the 2015-16 el nino). october 2016 shows the el nino spike, but exaggerates the recent flatness. warming is concentrated in months of may, june, & july. from noaa. temperature in october of each year. reference period is the 20th century. continue reading → this entry was posted in politics, science & nature and tagged climate change, donald trump, extreme weather, forecasts on 2 december 2016 by editor of the fabius maximus website. can the left adapt to the trump era? watch their climate activists for clues. 4 replies summary: much depends on the left’s ability to resist trump, making arguments that mobilize public opinion. their actions since the election suggest that will not happen soon. climate change is both the left’s signature initiative and its greatest failure (failing to change the us public’s policy priorities). how (or if) the left changes their climate advocacy will show if they can adapt to the trump era. london, 6 december 2009. photo by franck robichon/epa. astronomer phil plait writes at slate, one of the left’s better-known climate propagandists. his recent columns at slate show why the left has failed to mobilize public opinion — and that they have learned nothing from the election. there were no questions about climate change in the presidential debates. clinton said little about climate change during the entire campaign. accordingly, gallup found that environmental issues were not in the top 12 issues people associate with clinton. there are good reasons for this. climate change has consistently ranked near the bottom of the us public’s major policy concerns. gallup asks people “what do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?” in october only 3% listed an environmental or pollution-related issues (including climate); economic issues were #1, totaling 17%. his november 28 column at slate, plait discussed trump’s plan to get nasa out of climate change research. he played the same song climate activists have sung for a decade. he began by invoking the consensus of climate scientists, which he should state (but doesn’t). as expressed by the ipcc’s ar5 working group i… “it is extremely likely (95 – 100% certain) that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2010.” this is important. but the relevant public policy question concerns future warming: what are the odds of various amounts of warming during different time horizons of the 21st century? there is no easy answer to this, let alone a consensus of climate scientists about it. so climate activists either ignore the research (such as the 4 scenarios described in ar5) or focus on the worst of these (the truly horrific rcp8.5), ignoring its unlikely assumptions. continue reading → this entry was posted in politics, science & nature and tagged climate change, phil plait on 1 december 2016 by editor of the fabius maximus website. post navigation ← older posts subscribe to the fm website! enter your email to receive email notices about new posts. subscribe to our rss feed rss - posts give a tip to fabius maximus: via paypal archive by month archive by month select month december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 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