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Description a online journal about geopolitics from an american's perspective, discussing ways to reignite the spirit of a nation grown cold.

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fabius maximus website
robert reich’s program to save the left after a decade of defeats
as we start a new era, see the similarities between obama and trump
james bowman reviews disney’s “frozen”, & its frozen ideology
stratfor: trump risks a trade war with china that cannot be won
put the stories about record 2016 warming in a useful context
deciphering the scandalous rumors about trump in russia
populism is reshaping the west. here’s what we can expect to get.
H2

forecast
analysis
H3
“the life of the party: 7 truths for democrats“
a look at the obama administration
about the coming trump era
experts say trump has a narcissistic & authoritarian personality!
for more information
film review of frozen: “frozen in ideological time “
a trade war that cannot be won
current trends: what’s the weather doing now?
“is europe disintegrating?“
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H4 “it’s agreed. different presidents, same script for america!”
“the goldwater rule: why breaking it is unethical and irresponsible.”
by james bowman.
american spectator in the issue of 14 february 2014.
posted with his generous permission.
stratfor, 11 january 2017.
by timothy garton ash.
excerpt from the london review of books, 19 january 2017.
a review of what is populism? by jan-werner müller.
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editor of the fabius maximus website
tom hayden
joe bonham
marcus j. ranum
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editor of the fabius maximus website
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editor of the fabius maximus website
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fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/
home https://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/
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robert reich’s program to save the left after a decade of defeats https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/23/robert-reich-reforms-for-democratic-party/
19 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/23/robert-reich-reforms-for-democratic-party/#comments
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the life of the party:
7 truths for democrats
http://robertreich.org/post/156133931835
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/23/robert-reich-reforms-for-democratic-party/#more-101929
https://en.support.wordpress.com/about-these-ads/
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robert reich https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/robert-reich/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/23/robert-reich-reforms-for-democratic-party/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
as we start a new era, see the similarities between obama and trump https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/22/similarities-between-obama-and-trump/
10 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/22/similarities-between-obama-and-trump/#comments
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/trump-and-obama.jpg
wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/barack_obama_citizenship_conspiracy_theories
boosting employment in manufacturing https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/11/12/stratfor-trump-promise-manufacturing-trade/
rebalancing trade with china https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/20/stratfor-trump-risks-a-trade-war-with-china-that-cannot-be-won/
mass foreclosures using perjury and forgery https://fabiusmaximus.com/2010/09/22/21802/
use of the espionage act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/espionage_act_of_1917#21st_century
sales of firearm soared during obama’s years https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/docs/2016-firearms-commerce-united-states/download
ten right-wing predictions about obama that never came true http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/10-right-wing-predictions-about-obama-that-never-came-true/
source http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/01/music-notes-12
nyt https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/arts/music/sharon-jones-dap-kings-dead.html
lat story http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/music/la-et-ms-sharon-jones-gabriel-roth-last-days-20161119-story.html
has appointed a bog-standard far-right wing team https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/12/the-left-responds-to-trump/
fantasies of a fascist revolution https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/12/the-left-responds-to-trump/
source https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/822804504533823488
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/psychiatry.jpg
the principles of medical ethics: with annotations especially applicable to psychiatry https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0890421439/ref=as_li_tl?ie=utf8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeasin=0890421439&linkcode=as2&tag=thefabimaxiwe-20&linkid=12583787f8c68fd6770bb07431ad6e1f
the goldwater rule: why breaking it is unethical and irresponsible https://www.psychiatry.org/news-room/apa-blogs/apa-blog/2016/08/the-goldwater-rule
like us on facebook https://www.facebook.com/fabiusmaximuswebsite
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the obama years https://fabiusmaximus.com/america/candidates/
trump and the new populism https://fabiusmaximus.com/america/trump-and-the-new-populism/
three big things to expect from the trump era. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/11/13/what-to-expect-from-trump/
see the warnings about trump’s infrastructure plan. it’s betraying populism. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/11/21/warning-about-trump-infrastructure-plan/
the left goes hysterical over trump, giving him a free ride as president. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/11/30/left-goes-hysterical-over-trump/
trump assembles a strategic and policy forum to better hear the 1%. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/05/trump-strategic-and-policy-forum/
trump is the next logical step as america becomes a plutocracy. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/18/usa-becomes-a-plutocracy/
the left sees president trump and goes mad. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2016/12/22/the-left-goes-mad-after-trump/
politics https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/politics/
barack obama https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/barack-obama/
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https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/22/similarities-between-obama-and-trump/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
james bowman reviews disney’s “frozen”, & its frozen ideology https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/21/review-of-disney-frozen-by-james-bowman/
4 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/21/review-of-disney-frozen-by-james-bowman/#comments
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available at amazon. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/b00g5g7k7o/ref=as_li_tl?ie=utf8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeasin=b00g5g7k7o&linkcode=as2&tag=thefabimaxiwe-20&linkid=8535aed6b390a3919cc4455b37a36191
announced nearly a decade ago http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/26/movies/26scot.html
according to disney https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/events-tours/downtown-disney/bibbidi-bobbidi-boutique-downtown/
fulminated against the move http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/columns/tanyagold/article1346715.ece
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/21/review-of-disney-frozen-by-james-bowman/#more-101893
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disney https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/disney/
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james bowman https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/james-bowman/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/21/review-of-disney-frozen-by-james-bowman/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
stratfor: trump risks a trade war with china that cannot be won https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/20/stratfor-trump-risks-a-trade-war-with-china-that-cannot-be-won/
10 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/20/stratfor-trump-risks-a-trade-war-with-china-that-cannot-be-won/#comments
president-elect donald trump https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/understanding-americas-global-role-age-trump
promised to correct it https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/trump-doctrine-work-progress
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/20/stratfor-trump-risks-a-trade-war-with-china-that-cannot-be-won/#more-101880
stratfor https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/stratfor/
china https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/china/
donald trump https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/donald-trump/
trade https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/trade/
trade war https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/trade-war/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/20/stratfor-trump-risks-a-trade-war-with-china-that-cannot-be-won/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
put the stories about record 2016 warming in a useful context https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/19/global-warming-status-report-december/
29 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/19/global-warming-status-report-december/#comments
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/global-warming.jpg
the global temperatures in 2016 were majorly influenced by strong el niño conditions… https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613
a particularly strong el niño event contributed about 0.2c to the annual average for 2016… http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2016-record-breaking-year-for-global-temperature
a graph by noaa https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/19/global-warming-status-report-december/#more-101865
science & nature https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/science-nature/
climate change https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/climate-change/
global temperature https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/global-temperature/
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https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/19/global-warming-status-report-december/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
deciphering the scandalous rumors about trump in russia https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/18/analysis-of-the-trump-russia-file/
20 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/18/analysis-of-the-trump-russia-file/#comments
here are the facts so far about the trump-russia file https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/12/summary-trump-russia-scandal/
- https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2017/01/poster-of-trump-and-putin-in-vilnius.jpg
so excite the left http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/01/on-the-trump-intelligence-memo
in dune https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0441172717/ref=as_li_tl?ie=utf8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeasin=0441172717&linkcode=as2&tag=thefabimaxiwe-20&linkid=823d4bc1e2d3c1a0e071c1d9212190a2
how to read the trump dossier http://www.lrb.co.uk/2017/01/17/arthur-snell/how-to-read-the-trump-dossier
veteran of the uk foreign office https://www.gov.uk/government/people/arthur-snell#biography
pgi intelligence https://pgi-intelligence.com/
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/18/analysis-of-the-trump-russia-file/#more-101851
information & news https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/information-news/
arthur snell https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/arthur-snell/
donald trump https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/donald-trump/
intelligence agencies https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/intelligence-agencies/
trump-russia file https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/trump-russia-file/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/18/analysis-of-the-trump-russia-file/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
populism is reshaping the west. here’s what we can expect to get. https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/17/an-explanation-of-populism/
18 replies https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/17/an-explanation-of-populism/#comments
with progressivism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/progressivism
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available at amazon. https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0812248988/ref=as_li_tl?ie=utf8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeasin=0812248988&linkcode=as2&tag=thefabimaxiwe-20&linkid=f9f517335c657178526ff85e92fac7bf
is europe disintegrating? http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/01/19/is-europe-disintegrating/
what is populism? https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0812248988/ref=as_li_tl?ie=utf8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeasin=0812248988&linkcode=as2&tag=thefabimaxiwe-20&linkid=f9f517335c657178526ff85e92fac7bf
“i am your voice” http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/22/trump-claims-gop-nomination-tells-struggling-americans-am-your-voice.html
“enemies of the people.” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3903436/enemies-people-fury-touch-judges-defied-17-4m-brexit-voters-trigger-constitutional-crisis.html
continue reading https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/17/an-explanation-of-populism/#more-101836
politics https://fabiusmaximus.com/category/politics/
jan-werner müller https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/jan-werner-muller/
populism https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/populism/
timothy garton ash https://fabiusmaximus.com/tag/timothy-garton-ash/
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/01/17/an-explanation-of-populism/
editor of the fabius maximus website https://fabiusmaximus.com/author/fabiusmaximus2000/
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guns in america: blood vs regulations https://fabiusmaximus.com/america/guns-in-america-97527-2/
obama, his administration & policies https://fabiusmaximus.com/america/candidates/
politics in america https://fabiusmaximus.com/america/politics-2/
reforming america: steps to new politics https://fabiusmaximus.com/america/political-reform-67124-2/
trump & the new populism https://fabiusmaximus.com/america/trump-and-the-new-populism/
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europe: on the road to division or unification? https://fabiusmaximus.com/41237-2/
financial crisis: how will this end? https://fabiusmaximus.com/financial-crisis/
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a new industrial revolution has begun https://fabiusmaximus.com/future/next-industrial-revolution-68679-2/
end of the post-wwii geopolitical regime https://fabiusmaximus.com/future/economy-archive/
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cyberespionage, cyberwar, cybersecurity – a new era https://fabiusmaximus.com/defence-appartatus/cyberwar/
goals and benchmarks for our iraq war https://fabiusmaximus.com/defence-appartatus/iraq-goals/
intelligence agencies: how they work, & don’t https://fabiusmaximus.com/defence-appartatus/nie-archive/
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anthropologists go to war. some revolt. https://fabiusmaximus.com/science-nature/anthropology-war/
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antiwar.com http://antiwar.com
baffler http://thebaffler.com/
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cfan: climate forecast applications network http://www.cfanclimate.net/
chet richard's slightly east of new http://slightlyeastofnew.com/
chuck spinney's the blaster http://chuckspinney.blogspot.com/
gary brecher, the war nerd http://pando.com/author/garybrecher/
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pando https://pando.com/
project on government oversight (pogo) http://www.pogo.org/
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fabius maximus website menu skip to content home about us authors our politics predictions: hits forecast fails & smackdowns contact us robert reich’s program to save the left after a decade of defeats 19 replies summary: here one of the left’s top political analysts sketches out a path forward for the democratic policy after its well-deserved defeats during the past decade. while tactically sound, he ignores the two weaknesses that prevent the reform of america. “the life of the party: 7 truths for democrats“ by robert reich. at his website, 20 january 2017. the ongoing contest between the hillary clinton and bernie sanders wings of the democratic party continues to divide democrats. it’s urgent democrats stop squabbling and recognize seven basic truths: the party is on life support. democrats are in the minority in both the house and senate, with no end in sight. since the start of the obama administration they’ve lost 1,034 state and federal seats. they hold only 16 governorships, and face 32 state legislatures fully under gop control. no one speaks for the party as a whole. the party’s top leaders are aging, and the back bench is thin. (1)  the future is bleak unless the party radically reforms itself. … (2)  the strongest and most powerful force in american politics is a rejection of the status quo, a repudiation of politics as usual, and a deep and profound distrust of elites, including the current power structure of america. {he conflates populism and progressivism, different but overlapping phenomena both rooted in rebellion against elites.} … (3)  the economy is not working for most americans. … continue reading → this entry was posted in politics and tagged democratic party, political reform, robert reich on 23 january 2017 by editor of the fabius maximus website. as we start a new era, see the similarities between obama and trump 10 replies summary: america has begun a new era with a new president. the similarities between obama in 2008 and trump today are remarkable. more precisely, between how we saw obama and see trump, with the left and right swapping roles. perhaps another 4 or 8 years of crushing disappointment will teach us lessons we failed to learn from obama. then the reform of america can begin. “it’s agreed. different presidents, same script for america!” tens of millions of americans believed obama was not a legitimate president, being born outside the usa (wikipedia). tens of millions of americans believe that president trump is not a legitimate president due to russian interference in the election; large numbers believe trump is an agent of russia (stories have him compromised in a variety of different ways). the parallels go deeper. obama won the presidency campaigning as the one bringing “hope and change”. trump won the presidency (with a minority in the popular vote) making a wide range of big populist promises — many of which will be difficult or impossible to fulfill (e.g., boosting employment in manufacturing, and rebalancing trade with china). neither entered office with a plan to fulfill their promises. a look at the obama administration obama delivered on some of his promises, most notably by enacting obamacare, expanding the war in afghanistan (unsuccessfully), and various leftist social policies. on some he failed to deliver, such as closing the concentration camp at guantanamo bay. he betrayed his followers on many key issues: the banker-friendly bailout (esp. allowing mass foreclosures using perjury and forgery, illegal assassination of an american citizen, increased illegal domestic surveillance, and the promised “most transparent administration” (staging an unprecedented crackdown on whistleblowers, including use of the espionage act). the right went bonkers during the obama years, with fantasies about obama as hitler — and the horrific deeds he would do. sales of firearm soared during obama’s years, as they prepared for obama’s mass confiscation of guns. there are scores much nightmares that convative leaders used to terrify and so mobilize their flocks. for a partial list see brian tashman’s “ten right-wing predictions about obama that never came true“. about the coming trump era “remember that the first person donald trump killed due to his presidency was sharon jones.” {source.} — she died on november 18 at age 60 of pancreatic cancer (nyt). the source of the rumor was an lat story: “jones, roth said in an interview saturday, suffered a stroke on nov. 8 — election night — as she was watching the returns. …’she told the people that were there that trump gave her the stroke,’ said roth, laughing.” both aspects of these aspects of the obama era are likely to repeat in the next four years, with left and right swapping places in this dance. those hoping for populist reforms are dreaming. people are policy in washington, and trump has appointed a bog-standard far-right wing team. meanwhile the left has gone bonkers, screaming fantasies of a fascist revolution — including trump’s mass imprisonment of his enemies and calling off the 2020. every day their fantasies get wilder, doubling down on the fear barrage the failed so spectacularly during the election campaign. “when one starts with ‘issuing a new decree’, it’s clear one has neither understanding nor respect for constitutional separation of powers.” {source.} — every president has used executive orders as a powerful tool (they are “decrees”). what will happen in 2020 if the left’s forecasts of fascism prove false, and instead of nazis we get traditional conservatism (i.e., rolling back the new deal, a stronger plutocracy)? will their years of wild unsupported predictions discredit them as a serious alternative government? they have wagered their credibility. experts say trump has a narcissistic & authoritarian personality! “on occasion psychiatrists are asked for an opinion about an individual who is in the light of public attention or who has disclosed information about himself/herself through public media. in such circumstances, a psychiatrist may share with the public his or her expertise about psychiatric issues in general. however, it is unethical for a psychiatrist to offer a professional opinion unless he or she has conducted an examination and has been granted proper authorization for such a statement. “the ‘goldwater rule’” in the principles of medical ethics: with annotations especially applicable to psychiatry, 2001 edition. “the goldwater rule: why breaking it is unethical and irresponsible.” by maria a. oquendo, m.d., ph.d. at the american psychiatric assn website. 3 august 2016. red emphasis added. “since 1973, the american psychiatric association and its members have abided by a principle commonly known as “the goldwater rule,” which prohibits psychiatrists from offering opinions on someone they have not personally evaluated. the rule is so named because of its association with an incident that took place during the 1964 presidential election. during that election, fact magazine published a survey in which they queried some 12,356 psychiatrists on whether candidate sen. barry goldwater, the gop nominee, was psychologically fit to be president. a total of 2,417 of those queried responded, with 1,189 saying that goldwater was unfit to assume the presidency. “while there was no formal policy in place at the time that survey was published, the ethical implications of the goldwater survey, in which some responding doctors even issued specific diagnoses without ever having examined him personally, became immediately clear. this large, very public ethical misstep by a significant number of psychiatrists violated the spirit of the ethical code that we live by as physicians, and could very well have eroded public confidence in psychiatry. “we live in an age where information on a given individual is easier to access and more abundant than ever before, particularly if that person happens to be a public figure. with that in mind, i can understand the desire to get inside the mind of a presidential candidate. i can also understand how a patient might feel if they saw their doctor offering an uninformed medical opinion on someone they have never examined. a patient who sees that might lose confidence in their doctor, and would likely feel stigmatized by language painting a candidate with a mental disorder (real or perceived) as “unfit” or “unworthy” to assume the presidency. “simply put, breaking the goldwater rule is irresponsible, potentially stigmatizing, and definitely unethical.” for more information if you liked this post, like us on facebook and follow us on twitter. see all posts about the obama years, about trump and the new populism, and especially these… three big things to expect from the trump era. see the warnings about trump’s infrastructure plan. it’s betraying populism. the left goes hysterical over trump, giving him a free ride as president. trump assembles a strategic and policy forum to better hear the 1%. trump is the next logical step as america becomes a plutocracy. the left sees president trump and goes mad. this entry was posted in politics and tagged barack obama, donald trump on 22 january 2017 by editor of the fabius maximus website. james bowman reviews disney’s “frozen”, & its frozen ideology 4 replies summary:  james bowman reviews disney’s frozen, looking beneath the animation to show how it reflects the changing nature of women in america. that makes the film even more interesting — to people interesting in the new america rising on the ashes of the america-that-once-was. better or worse? you decide. available at amazon. film review of frozen: “frozen in ideological time “ by james bowman. american spectator in the issue of 14 february 2014. posted with his generous permission. …the very concept of “seriousness” as applied to the arts hardly has any meaning now, ever since — as the times’s film critic a.o. scott announced nearly a decade ago — “children’s entertainment has become the cornerstone of the american movie industry, not only commercially, but artistically as well.” but cartoons and the cartoon-like dominate to the extent that they do not only because so much of the movie audience today is made up of juveniles but also because they are the means of re-mythologizing the culture along progressivist lines with the help of the sort of fantasy known as ideology. star wars was a big part of that effort, of course, as was star trek. thirty years ago when i was a teacher, i once assigned a class to do a presentation on someone each pupil regarded as a hero. one boy gave his talk on captain james t. kirk. i made him go away and re-do it on someone real, as i thought he was mocking the assignment; but i wonder now if, even then, he simply had no better idea of heroism. certainly you would be surprised nowadays if any child didn’t assume that what was wanted was an account of his favorite superhero. real heroes, being no longer politically correct and gaining no advantage from their mere reality, can no longer compete with the fantastical kind. the job that has been done on girls, while less well-recognized has been no less thorough than that which has been done on boys. princesses are to girls what superheroes are to boys: objects of admiration not in spite of but because of their unreality. recently harrod’s teamed up with disney to introduce a disney-world-style “bibbidi bobbidi boutique” to london — “a magical beauty salon,” according to disney, “where any little girl can make her dream of becoming a princess come true.” that should tell you something about the disney concept of truth. tanya gold of the london sunday times fulminated against the move as a politically retrograde step, but she must not have seen many disney princesses of recent years. now they don’t just look pretty until prince charming comes along. they’re more like “princess” leia of star wars, their faux-royalism mere camouflage as they doff their tiaras to lead the revolution. the latest example comes with frozen, which is similarly a tale of disenchantment masquerading as enchantment. getting real would truly be a momentous step for disney if real meant real, but of course it doesn’t; it means getting ideological. continue reading → this entry was posted in book, film, & tv reviews and tagged disney, frozen, james bowman on 21 january 2017 by editor of the fabius maximus website. stratfor: trump risks a trade war with china that cannot be won 10 replies summary: trump’s big promises won him the presidency, much as obama’s promises of “hope and change”. here is a second article by stratfor looking at trump’s ability to do better than obama at delivering on them. will trump fail gracefully, like obama, or catastrophically? a trade war that cannot be won stratfor, 11 january 2017. forecast protectionist trade policies toward china would do little to achieve the incoming u.s. administration’s stated goal of reviving u.s. manufacturing. beijing would use various means — in particular, harassing u.s. companies that operate in china and depend on the country’s growing consumer market — to retaliate against protectionism in the united states. president-elect donald trump’s administration will likely focus on curbing chinese steel imports, a policy that could boost u.s. manufacturing without doing much damage to china’s economy. analysis the trade relationship between the united states and china is a cornerstone of the global economy and a linchpin of the economic, social and political order in both countries. but in recent years, and particularly during the runup to the 2016 u.s. presidential election, the partnership has come under fire in the united states. leaders such as president-elect donald trump have criticized washington’s trade ties with beijing as unfavorable, since china’s exports to the united states exceed its imports from it. trump has decried the negative effects of this trade imbalance and promised to correct it, for instance by imposing a 45% tariff on chinese imports. despite the backlash that such a drastic measure would invite from beijing, trump argues that the united states is better poised to weather a prolonged trade dispute than is china, thanks to their lopsided trade relationship. a closer look at u.s. trade activities with china casts doubt on this idea, however. changes in the composition of chinese exports to the united states, the structure of manufacturing supply chains and the aims of u.s. corporate investment in china have evened the field between washington and beijing. as each side tries to achieve increasingly contrary political and economic goals, neither would be immune from the fallout of a trade war. china has just as many options to retaliate against protectionist u.s. policies as the united states has to punish beijing. the challenge is to understand which tactics the countries’ leaders are likely to choose — and to what end. continue reading → this entry was posted in stratfor and tagged china, donald trump, trade, trade war on 20 january 2017 by editor of the fabius maximus website. put the stories about record 2016 warming in a useful context 29 replies summary: alarmists have gone hysterical about the third year of record global warming. should we be hysterical? fortunately noaa and nasa provide graphics showing us the temperature record, so we can put the current warming in a larger context. the temperature trend is not the only piece in the climate change puzzle, but it’s an important one — worth taking a few minutes to understand. the climate does not care about our politics, and will have the last work in the policy debate. current trends: what’s the weather doing now? the big news is that 2016 temperature anomaly was a record high: 0.07°f warmer than 2015 and 0.04°f warmer than the previous el nino peak in 1998. measuring temperatures from el nino peak to peak is a crude but effect measure of warming because enso cycles are so powerful. noaa “the global temperatures in 2016 were majorly influenced by strong el niño conditions…“.uk met office: “a particularly strong el niño event contributed about 0.2c to the annual average for 2016…” also, neither increase is even close to statistically significant. the 2016 anomaly was 1.69°f  ±  0.27°f). alarmists ignore the actual numbers, preferring to make alarming pronouncements about the coming climate apocalypse (vagueness is the alarmist’s best friend). there is no one true way to show trends in global temperature. here are three different perspectives; all give roughly similar results. first, a graph by noaa of the global average surface temperature in decembers (their excellent interactive website shows data since the reliable instrument era began in 1880). this graph minimizes the overall warming trend, which is concentrated in the months of may, june, & july. click to enlarge. continue reading → this entry was posted in science & nature and tagged climate change, global temperature, global warming, surface atmosphere temperature on 19 january 2017 by editor of the fabius maximus website. deciphering the scandalous rumors about trump in russia 20 replies summary: stories about the trump-russia scandal continue to roil the media. it might dominate the vital start of the trump administration. even if it does not, these events are rich with lessons about hidden aspects of america’s politics. here is an expert’s analysis, a follow-up to here are the facts so far about the trump-russia file. ints kalnins/reuters. the story of the trump-russia file is among the most significant news of 2017. not because it is yet another disreputable story about trump (credulously believed by the left). not because of its salacious details (which so excite the left). the involvement of us intelligence agencies makes it important. we can only guess at their motives for publicizing this unverified information. they move like the sandworms in dune, giant beasts visible only by their wake on the surface. as usual with scandals (real or imagined), the british press have covered this more closely than their us cousins. mostly by speculation, but the better elements have presented intriguing analysis. such as this in yesterday’s london review of books: “how to read the trump dossier” by arthur snell — a veteran of the uk foreign office, now a managing director of corporate intelligence firm pgi intelligence. this provides the strongest case i have seen for taking the trump-russia file seriously. it goes off the rails at the beginning. “none of the claims made in the dossier has yet been verified, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take it seriously. intelligence is information, from a privileged source, that supports decision-making. it is seldom verifiable because that information is rarely in the public domain.” why should we take this file seriously if it has no verification? here is the closest snell gets to an answer. it’s quite daft. continue reading → this entry was posted in information & news and tagged arthur snell, donald trump, intelligence agencies, trump-russia file on 18 january 2017 by editor of the fabius maximus website. populism is reshaping the west. here’s what we can expect to get. 18 replies summary: suppressed for generations, the greed and incompetence of the west’s elites allowed populism to re-emerge. but few understand it. many confuse it with progressivism. elites consider it “the bad thing”, when the proles slip their leash. populism is reshaping western nations. we should understand it. to help us, here is a clear introduction in which a professor at oxford reviews a new book about populism by a professor at princeton. available at amazon. “is europe disintegrating?“ by timothy garton ash. excerpt from the london review of books, 19 january 2017. a review of what is populism? by jan-werner müller. i have used the word “populist” several times without pausing to define it. but isn’t it just a woolly, catch-all term for parties, movements, and presidential candidates we don’t like? what is populism? this is the question addressed in an excellent short book by jan-werner müller, a german scholar who now teaches at princeton. müller recalls that richard hofstadter once gave a talk titled “everyone is talking about populism, but no one can define it” {at the london school of economics, 1967}, yet he makes the best effort i have seen to give the term a coherent contemporary meaning. populists speak in the name of “the people,” and claim that their direct legitimation from “the people” trumps (the verb has acquired a new connotation) all other sources of legitimate political authority, be it constitutional court, head of state, parliament, or local and state government. donald trump’s “i am your voice” is a classic populist statement. but so is the turkish prime minister’s riposte to eu assertions that a red line had been crossed by his government’s clampdown on media freedom: “the people draw the red lines.” so is the daily mail’s front-page headline denouncing three british high court judges who ruled that parliament must have a vote on brexit as “enemies of the people.” meanwhile, polish right-wing nationalists justify an ongoing attempt to neuter poland’s constitutional court on the grounds that the people are “the sovereign.” continue reading → this entry was posted in politics and tagged jan-werner müller, populism, timothy garton ash on 17 january 2017 by editor of the fabius maximus website. post navigation ← older posts subscribe to the fm website! enter your email to receive email notices about new posts. subscribe to our rss feed rss - posts give a tip to fabius maximus: via paypal archive by month archive by month select month january 2017 december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 october 2008 september 2008 august 2008 july 2008 june 2008 may 2008 april 2008 march 2008 february 2008 january 2008 december 2007 november 2007 october 2007 september 2007 july 2007 may 2007 april 2007 march 2007 january 2007 december 2006 november 2006 july 2006 march 2006 january 2006 december 2005 november 2005 october 2005 july 2005 november 2003 october 2003 september 2003 categoriescategories select category 3rd industrial revolution 4gw america art, myth, & literature book, film, & tv reviews cybersecurity & cyberwar demography economics europe geopolitical news good news grand strategy history information & news internal internet’s impacts iraq & afghanistan oil & energy other issues our long war our military politics post-wwii era over? 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