3.41 score from hupso.pl for:
cheaptalk.org



HTML Content


Titlecheap talk | a blog about economics, politics and the random interests of forty-something professors

Length: 100, Words: 14
Description pusty

Length: 0, Words: 0
Keywords pusty
Robots
Charset UTF-8
Og Meta - Title exist
Og Meta - Description exist
Og Meta - Site name exist
Tytuł powinien zawierać pomiędzy 10 a 70 znaków (ze spacjami), a mniej niż 12 słów w długości.
Meta opis powinien zawierać pomiędzy 50 a 160 znaków (łącznie ze spacjami), a mniej niż 24 słów w długości.
Kodowanie znaków powinny być określone , UTF-8 jest chyba najlepszy zestaw znaków, aby przejść z powodu UTF-8 jest bardziej międzynarodowy kodowaniem.
Otwarte obiekty wykresu powinny być obecne w stronie internetowej (więcej informacji na temat protokołu OpenGraph: http://ogp.me/)

SEO Content

Words/Characters 7294
Text/HTML 34.09 %
Headings H1 1
H2 30
H3 35
H4 1
H5 0
H6 0
H1
cheap talk
H2
trumprediction: the worst case scenario and a best response
jury duty tip at leighton court chicago
failure of big data
friday music: bad plus, “everybody wants to rule the world”
trumprediction: most likely outcome for trump presidency
trumprediction: nuclear proliferation
evangelicals can delete dominated strategies but greens cannot
friday music
trumprediction: isis
forecaster horse race
economics nobel 2016: oliver hart and bengt holmstrom
should republicans dump trump – a backward induction argument
thoughts left lying around about election forecasts
henry viii and brexit
trumpellence and the donald’s optimal strategy
why you don’t see ads for american idol on abc
i think i finally figured it out
what the contested convention odds tell us
who is the best republican presidential candidate for congressional republicans?
negative campaigning in multi-candidate elections
the establishment gop needs approval voting in the primaries
isil and its confused strategy
what i like about kellogg…
prisoner’s dilemma everywhere: surge pricing and the uber driver strike
purple pricing and my andy warhol minute
rugby in australia and perfect competition
commitment and extraction of ransoms
leaving things unsaid
sherlock holmes on the optimal use of finite memory
deutsch(x)it
H3
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
talk cheaply
top posts
tags
subscribe via rss
jeff’s twitter feed
email subscription
H4 state outcomes are highly correlated with one another, so polling errors in one state are likely to be replicated in other, similar states….if clinton loses pennsylvania despite having a big lead in the polls there, for instance, she might also have problems in michigan, north carolina and other swing states.
H5
H6
strong
jg: so there is some chance of more instability.
hk:
jg: the threat from isis is more serious now?
hk:
b
i
jg: so there is some chance of more instability.
hk:
jg: the threat from isis is more serious now?
hk:
em jg: so there is some chance of more instability.
hk:
jg: the threat from isis is more serious now?
hk:
Bolds strong 4
b 0
i 4
em 4
Zawartość strony internetowej powinno zawierać więcej niż 250 słów, z stopa tekst / kod jest wyższy niż 20%.
Pozycji używać znaczników (h1, h2, h3, ...), aby określić temat sekcji lub ustępów na stronie, ale zwykle, użyj mniej niż 6 dla każdego tagu pozycje zachować swoją stronę zwięzły.
Styl używać silnych i kursywy znaczniki podkreślić swoje słowa kluczowe swojej stronie, ale nie nadużywać (mniej niż 16 silnych tagi i 16 znaczników kursywy)

Statystyki strony

twitter:title pusty
twitter:description pusty
google+ itemprop=name pusty
Pliki zewnętrzne 30
Pliki CSS 7
Pliki javascript 23
Plik należy zmniejszyć całkowite odwołanie plików (CSS + JavaScript) do 7-8 maksymalnie.

Linki wewnętrzne i zewnętrzne

Linki 283
Linki wewnętrzne 1
Linki zewnętrzne 282
Linki bez atrybutu Title 199
Linki z atrybutem NOFOLLOW 0
Linki - Użyj atrybutu tytuł dla każdego łącza. Nofollow link jest link, który nie pozwala wyszukiwarkom boty zrealizują są odnośniki no follow. Należy zwracać uwagę na ich użytkowania

Linki wewnętrzne

Linki zewnętrzne

home https://cheaptalk.org/
who we are https://cheaptalk.org/about/
jeff’s intermediate micro course https://cheaptalk.org/jeffs-intermediate-micro-course/
behavioral economics reading list https://cheaptalk.org/behavioral-economics-reading-list/
crumbs https://cheaptalk.org/crumbs/
subscribe to feed https://cheaptalk.org/feed/
trumprediction: the worst case scenario and a best response https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/30/trumprediction-the-worst-case-scenario-and-a-best-response/
trumprediction https://cheaptalk.org/category/trumprediction/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/30/trumprediction-the-worst-case-scenario-and-a-best-response/#respond
bush presidency with some trumpian twists https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/16/trumprediction-most-likely-outcome-for-trump-presidency/
blog post https://econciv.wordpress.com/2016/11/22/a-memo-to-the-democratic-party/
blog post https://econciv.wordpress.com/2016/11/22/a-memo-to-the-democratic-party/
tweet https://twitter.com/share
jury duty tip at leighton court chicago https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/29/jury-duty-tip-at-leighton-court-chicago/
food and wine https://cheaptalk.org/category/food-and-wine/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/29/jury-duty-tip-at-leighton-court-chicago/#respond
tacqueria el milagr http://www.el-milagro.com/locations.html
tweet https://twitter.com/share
failure of big data https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/21/failure-of-big-data/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/21/failure-of-big-data/#respond
were wildly off http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/19/opinion/why-i-had-to-eat-a-bug-on-cnn.html
his theory of correlated forecasting errors http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/
tweet https://twitter.com/share
friday music: bad plus, “everybody wants to rule the world” https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/18/friday-music-bad-plus-everybody-wants-to-rule-the-world/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/18/friday-music-bad-plus-everybody-wants-to-rule-the-world/#respond
tweet https://twitter.com/share
trumprediction: most likely outcome for trump presidency https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/16/trumprediction-most-likely-outcome-for-trump-presidency/
trumprediction https://cheaptalk.org/category/trumprediction/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/16/trumprediction-most-likely-outcome-for-trump-presidency/#respond
trump is thin-skinned and hence a prime candidate for manipulation by terrorists who seek to escalate conflict https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/10/trumprediction-isis/
tweet https://twitter.com/share
trumprediction: nuclear proliferation https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/15/trumprediction-nuclear-proliferation/
trumprediction https://cheaptalk.org/category/trumprediction/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/15/trumprediction-nuclear-proliferation/#respond
if not, why not let these countries go nuclear? http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-transcript.html?_r=1
tweet https://twitter.com/share
evangelicals can delete dominated strategies but greens cannot https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/14/evangelicals-can-delete-dominated-strategies-but-greens-cannot/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
1 comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/14/evangelicals-can-delete-dominated-strategies-but-greens-cannot/#comments
michigan http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/michigan
wisconsin http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/wisconsin
jorg spenkuch http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/spenkuch/research/voting.pdf
tweet https://twitter.com/share
friday music https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/11/friday-music/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/11/friday-music/#respond
tweet https://twitter.com/share
trumprediction: isis https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/10/trumprediction-isis/
trumprediction https://cheaptalk.org/category/trumprediction/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/10/trumprediction-isis/#respond
it turns out henry kissinger agrees with me: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/12/the-lessons-of-henry-kissinger/505868/
tweet https://twitter.com/share
forecaster horse race https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/05/forecaster-horse-race/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
jeff https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheeptalk/
4 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2016/11/05/forecaster-horse-race/#comments
that’s a puzzle in itself https://cheaptalk.org/2016/07/21/thoughts-left-lying-around-about-election-forecasts/
every other forecaster http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0#other-forecasts
tweet https://twitter.com/share
economics nobel 2016: oliver hart and bengt holmstrom https://cheaptalk.org/2016/10/10/economics-nobel-2016-oliver-hart-and-bengt-holmstrom/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
1 comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/10/10/economics-nobel-2016-oliver-hart-and-bengt-holmstrom/#comments
several of these papers http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/math/discussion/author2.htm#h
collude http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/baliga/htm/decen.pdf
renegotiate http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/baliga/htm/nih50.pdf
work http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/baliga/htm/coord.pdf
tweet https://twitter.com/share
should republicans dump trump – a backward induction argument https://cheaptalk.org/2016/08/05/should-republicans-dump-trump-a-backward-induction-argument/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
1 comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/08/05/should-republicans-dump-trump-a-backward-induction-argument/#comments
tweet https://twitter.com/share
thoughts left lying around about election forecasts https://cheaptalk.org/2016/07/21/thoughts-left-lying-around-about-election-forecasts/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
jeff https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheeptalk/
3 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2016/07/21/thoughts-left-lying-around-about-election-forecasts/#comments
other forecaster https://cheaptalk.org/2012/10/13/martingales-dont-do-this/
infinitely many forecasters http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0#other-forecasts
tweet https://twitter.com/share
henry viii and brexit https://cheaptalk.org/2016/06/27/henry-viii-and-brexit/
art of office politics https://cheaptalk.org/category/art-of-office-politics/
banana seeds https://cheaptalk.org/category/banana-seeds/
tongue in cheek https://cheaptalk.org/category/tongue-in-cheek/
vapor mill https://cheaptalk.org/category/vapor-mill/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
2 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2016/06/27/henry-viii-and-brexit/#comments
tweet https://twitter.com/share
trumpellence and the donald’s optimal strategy https://cheaptalk.org/2016/06/16/trumpellence-and-the-donalds-optimal-strategy/
art of office politics https://cheaptalk.org/category/art-of-office-politics/
tongue in cheek https://cheaptalk.org/category/tongue-in-cheek/
vapor mill https://cheaptalk.org/category/vapor-mill/
current events https://cheaptalk.org/tag/current-events/
incentives https://cheaptalk.org/tag/incentives/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
1 comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/06/16/trumpellence-and-the-donalds-optimal-strategy/#comments
tweet https://twitter.com/share
why you don’t see ads for american idol on abc https://cheaptalk.org/2016/04/07/why-you-dont-see-ads-for-american-idol-on-abc/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
jeff https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheeptalk/
7 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2016/04/07/why-you-dont-see-ads-for-american-idol-on-abc/#comments
yesterday https://cheaptalk.org/2016/04/06/i-think-i-finally-figured-it-out/
tweet https://twitter.com/share
i think i finally figured it out https://cheaptalk.org/2016/04/06/i-think-i-finally-figured-it-out/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
jeff https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheeptalk/
2 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2016/04/06/i-think-i-finally-figured-it-out/#comments
tweet https://twitter.com/share
what the contested convention odds tell us https://cheaptalk.org/2016/04/06/what-the-contested-convention-odds-tell-us/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
jeff https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheeptalk/
4 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2016/04/06/what-the-contested-convention-odds-tell-us/#comments
primary.guide https://primary.guide
tweet https://twitter.com/share
who is the best republican presidential candidate for congressional republicans? https://cheaptalk.org/2016/03/16/who-is-the-best-republican-presidential-candidate-for-congressional-republicans/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/03/16/who-is-the-best-republican-presidential-candidate-for-congressional-republicans/#respond
tweet https://twitter.com/share
negative campaigning in multi-candidate elections https://cheaptalk.org/2016/02/10/negative-campaigning-in-multi-candidate-elections/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
4 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2016/02/10/negative-campaigning-in-multi-candidate-elections/#comments
tweet https://twitter.com/share
the establishment gop needs approval voting in the primaries https://cheaptalk.org/2016/02/08/the-establishment-gop-needs-approval-voting-in-the-primaries/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2016/02/08/the-establishment-gop-needs-approval-voting-in-the-primaries/#respond
from http://www.buzzfeed.com/tariniparti/the-dilemma-of-the-anti-trump-voter#.mup3wxwbvy
buzzfeed: http://www.buzzfeed.com/tariniparti/the-dilemma-of-the-anti-trump-voter#.mup3wxwbvy
perhaps the gop should adopt approval voting as suggested by my colleague bob weber where each voter can “approve” as many candidates as he likes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/approval_voting
tweet https://twitter.com/share
isil and its confused strategy https://cheaptalk.org/2015/11/17/isil-and-its-confused-strategy/
war https://cheaptalk.org/category/war/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
1 comment https://cheaptalk.org/2015/11/17/isil-and-its-confused-strategy/#comments
tweet https://twitter.com/share
what i like about kellogg… https://cheaptalk.org/2015/11/03/what-i-like-about-kellogg/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2015/11/03/what-i-like-about-kellogg/#respond
- https://cheeptalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screenshot-2015-11-03-09-04-21.png
robert mcdonald, associate dean for faculty, and jeff cohen performing “here comes the weekend” by dave edmunds and nick lowe and “what’s so funny about peace, love and understanding?” by nick lowe. https://www.dropbox.com/s/l0tj8r3str6qa1u/img_0945.m4v?dl=0
tweet https://twitter.com/share
prisoner’s dilemma everywhere: surge pricing and the uber driver strike https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/26/prisoners-dilemma-everywhere-surge-pricing-and-the-uber-driver-strike/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
teaching https://cheaptalk.org/tag/teaching/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/26/prisoners-dilemma-everywhere-surge-pricing-and-the-uber-driver-strike/#respond
- https://cheeptalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/12049560_1639842076275234_7933151579960732577_n.jpg
uber drivers tried to organize a strike to demand higher pay. http://www.freep.com/story/money/business/michigan/2015/10/15/some-uber-drivers-call-for-no-service-this-weekend-ride-share-work-stoppage-michigan-detroit/74004590/
tweet https://twitter.com/share
purple pricing and my andy warhol minute https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/20/purple-pricing-and-my-andy-warhol-minute/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
economics https://cheaptalk.org/tag/economics/
teaching https://cheaptalk.org/tag/teaching/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/20/purple-pricing-and-my-andy-warhol-minute/#respond
http://video.wttw.com/viralplayer/2365587170 http://video.wttw.com/viralplayer/2365587170
tweet https://twitter.com/share
rugby in australia and perfect competition https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/09/rugby-in-australia-and-perfect-competition-2/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
teaching https://cheaptalk.org/tag/teaching/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
1 comment https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/09/rugby-in-australia-and-perfect-competition-2/#comments
good for teaching: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/09/world/australia/dunedoo-australia-coal-new-south-wales.html?_r=0
tweet https://twitter.com/share
commitment and extraction of ransoms https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/01/commitment-and-extraction-of-ransoms/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
crime https://cheaptalk.org/tag/crime/
game theory https://cheaptalk.org/tag/game-theory/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
1 comment https://cheaptalk.org/2015/10/01/commitment-and-extraction-of-ransoms/#comments
new york times http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/opinion/sunday/how-my-mom-got-hacked.html
tweet https://twitter.com/share
leaving things unsaid https://cheaptalk.org/2015/09/30/leaving-things-unsaid/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
art of office politics https://cheaptalk.org/tag/art-of-office-politics/
cheap talk https://cheaptalk.org/tag/cheap-talk/
decision-making https://cheaptalk.org/tag/decision-making/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
leave a comment https://cheaptalk.org/2015/09/30/leaving-things-unsaid/#respond
tweet https://twitter.com/share
sherlock holmes on the optimal use of finite memory https://cheaptalk.org/2015/08/12/sherlock-holmes-on-the-optimal-use-of-finite-memory/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
decision-making https://cheaptalk.org/tag/decision-making/
economics https://cheaptalk.org/tag/economics/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
4 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2015/08/12/sherlock-holmes-on-the-optimal-use-of-finite-memory/#comments
from a study in scarlet: http://www.gutenberg.org/files/244/244-h/244-h.htm
tweet https://twitter.com/share
deutsch(x)it https://cheaptalk.org/2015/07/13/deutschxit/
uncategorized https://cheaptalk.org/category/uncategorized/
sandeep baliga https://cheaptalk.org/author/cheepsandeep/
2 comments https://cheaptalk.org/2015/07/13/deutschxit/#comments
 has offered two debt relief plans for greece. https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/620272062771429377/photo/1
deutschit signals that germany will take a somewhat costly action to help fellow ec members https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsgl3d4komk
tweet https://twitter.com/share
why is it a crime to park facing the wrong way? https://cheaptalk.org/2011/06/01/why-is-it-a-crime-to-park-facing-the-wrong-way/
what is the recommended serving temperature for guinness? https://cheaptalk.org/2009/06/20/what-is-the-recommended-serving-temperature-for-guinness/
how to shill on ebay https://cheaptalk.org/2010/02/12/how-to-shill-on-ebay/
the ornament game https://cheaptalk.org/2009/12/13/the-ornament-game/
pricing bareback https://cheaptalk.org/2009/10/01/pricing-bareback/
left, right, then left again https://cheaptalk.org/2009/07/20/left-right-then-left-again/
why exams should be open book https://cheaptalk.org/2009/04/29/why-exams-should-be-open-book/
why does the fastest swimmer anchor a relay? https://cheaptalk.org/2010/02/02/why-does-the-fastest-take-the-anchor-leg-of-a-relay/
who we are https://cheaptalk.org/about/
who gets more pleasure from sex? https://cheaptalk.org/2011/05/30/who-gets-more-pleasure-from-sex/
art https://cheaptalk.org/tag/art/
art of office politics https://cheaptalk.org/tag/art-of-office-politics/
banana seeds https://cheaptalk.org/tag/banana-seeds/
blog https://cheaptalk.org/tag/blog/
books https://cheaptalk.org/tag/books/
boston https://cheaptalk.org/tag/boston/
california https://cheaptalk.org/tag/california/
chicago https://cheaptalk.org/tag/chicago/
coffee https://cheaptalk.org/tag/coffee/
computers https://cheaptalk.org/tag/computers/
crime https://cheaptalk.org/tag/crime/
current events https://cheaptalk.org/tag/current-events/
decision-making https://cheaptalk.org/tag/decision-making/
economics https://cheaptalk.org/tag/economics/
education https://cheaptalk.org/tag/education/
evolution https://cheaptalk.org/tag/evolution/
family https://cheaptalk.org/tag/family/
financial crisis https://cheaptalk.org/tag/financial-crisis/
food and wine https://cheaptalk.org/tag/food-and-wine/
friends https://cheaptalk.org/tag/friends/
funny https://cheaptalk.org/tag/funny/
game theory https://cheaptalk.org/tag/game-theory/
incentives https://cheaptalk.org/tag/incentives/
iphone https://cheaptalk.org/tag/iphone/
kludge https://cheaptalk.org/tag/kludge/
language https://cheaptalk.org/tag/language/
law https://cheaptalk.org/tag/law/
marriage https://cheaptalk.org/tag/marriage/
maths https://cheaptalk.org/tag/maths/
movies https://cheaptalk.org/tag/movies/
music https://cheaptalk.org/tag/music/
obama https://cheaptalk.org/tag/obama/
politics https://cheaptalk.org/tag/politics/
psychology https://cheaptalk.org/tag/psychology/
publishing https://cheaptalk.org/tag/publishing/
sandeep has bad taste https://cheaptalk.org/tag/sandeep-has-bad-taste/
sanitation https://cheaptalk.org/tag/sanitation/
sport https://cheaptalk.org/tag/sport/
statistics https://cheaptalk.org/tag/statistics/
suicide https://cheaptalk.org/tag/suicide/
teaching https://cheaptalk.org/tag/teaching/
terrorism https://cheaptalk.org/tag/terrorism/
the web https://cheaptalk.org/tag/the-web/
tomatoes https://cheaptalk.org/tag/tomatoes/
travel https://cheaptalk.org/tag/travel/
tv https://cheaptalk.org/tag/tv/
vapor mill https://cheaptalk.org/tag/vapor-mill/
war https://cheaptalk.org/tag/war/
winter https://cheaptalk.org/tag/winter/
writing https://cheaptalk.org/tag/writing/
rss - posts https://cheaptalk.org/feed/
jeff’s twitter feed http://twitter.com/jeffely
1 week ago http://twitter.com/jeffely/statuses/803023610923413504
2 weeks ago http://twitter.com/jeffely/statuses/798863033007214592
twitter.com/realdonaldtrum… https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/796900183955095552
3 weeks ago http://twitter.com/jeffely/statuses/797062150065913857
3 weeks ago http://twitter.com/jeffely/statuses/796325184298975232
twitter.com/wpjenna/status… https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/795631491304878080
4 weeks ago http://twitter.com/jeffely/statuses/795793667906736128
follow @jeffely http://twitter.com/jeffely
« previous entries https://cheaptalk.org/page/2/
create a free website or blog at wordpress.com. https://wordpress.com/?ref=footer_website
subscribe to feed. https://cheaptalk.org/feed/

Zdjęcia

Zdjęcia 7
Zdjęcia bez atrybutu ALT 3
Zdjęcia bez atrybutu TITLE 7
Korzystanie Obraz ALT i TITLE atrybutu dla każdego obrazu.

Zdjęcia bez atrybutu TITLE

https://cheeptalk.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/cropped-1802611311_706c775235_b1.jpg
https://s2.wp.com/wp-content/mu-plugins/wpcom-smileys/wordpress.svg
https://cheeptalk.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/img_1216.jpg?w=490
https://cheeptalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/screenshot-2015-11-03-09-04-21.png?w=490&h=272
https://cheeptalk.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/12049560_1639842076275234_7933151579960732577_n.jpg?w=200&h=300
https://sb.scorecardresearch.com/p?c1=2&c2=7518284&c3=&c4=&c5=&c6=&c15=&cv=2.0&cj=1
https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?v=noscript

Zdjęcia bez atrybutu ALT

https://cheeptalk.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/cropped-1802611311_706c775235_b1.jpg
https://sb.scorecardresearch.com/p?c1=2&c2=7518284&c3=&c4=&c5=&c6=&c15=&cv=2.0&cj=1
https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?v=noscript

Ranking:


Alexa Traffic
Daily Global Rank Trend
Daily Reach (Percent)









Majestic SEO











Text on page:

cheap talk a blog about economics, politics and the random interests of forty-something professors home who we are jeff’s intermediate micro course behavioral economics reading list crumbs subscribe to feed trumprediction: the worst case scenario and a best response november 30, 2016 in trumprediction | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment my prediction for the trump presidency is still that it will be a bush presidency with some trumpian twists (e.g. infrastructure spending). but there is a worse scenario. who thinks that president obama will say on january 20 that he is not stepping down because his “replacement” lost the popular vote and won the electoral college because of russian hacking?  the whole idea seems farfetched. on the other hand, if peotus trump loses the election in four years, who thinks he might say the election was rigged and try to stay on? this does not seem farfetched. so the most important job of congress is to check-and-balance peotus’s excesses. how should congress do so? as usual, roger myerson is ahead of the rest of us in thinking about this. in a blog post he writes: america’s constitutional system depends fundamentally on a balanced distribution of power between the separate branches of government. over the past century, a long expansion in the size and scope of federal agencies has entailed a steady growth of presidential power. now, with a president-elect who has never exercised public power within constitutional limits, our best hope is that the next four years should be a time for strengthening the effective authority of congress. for this vital goal, democrats today should support the constitutional right of congressional majorities to legally direct the policies and actions of the federal government, even when those majorities happen to be republican. his blog post makes many points including regarding the paradoxical impact of term limits for congress and the misuse of the filibuster. talk cheaplytweet jury duty tip at leighton court chicago november 29, 2016 in food and wine | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment eat at tacqueria el milagro: chile relleno tacos talk cheaplytweet failure of big data november 21, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment the poll aggregators were wildly off as they gave hillary clinton an over 90% chance of winning. nate silver was the most pessimistic because of his theory of correlated forecasting errors: state outcomes are highly correlated with one another, so polling errors in one state are likely to be replicated in other, similar states….if clinton loses pennsylvania despite having a big lead in the polls there, for instance, she might also have problems in michigan, north carolina and other swing states. the correlating factor appears to be the white working class vote which abandoned clinton in the rust belt states. for reasons we do not yet fully understand, this vote for trump did not appear in polls. the polls were then all off the mark in all rust belt states. the others poll aggregators assumed independence and gave less thought to a simple theory of voting that might generate independence let alone whether such a theory might be plausible. if they hand, it would have led them to a more plausible way to look at the data, like silver, and hence better predictions. (ht georgy egorov though i may not be doing justice to his point.) talk cheaplytweet friday music: bad plus, “everybody wants to rule the world” november 18, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment talk cheaplytweet trumprediction: most likely outcome for trump presidency november 16, 2016 in trumprediction | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment the most likely outcome for the trump presidency is that it will  (w) bush  2.0 with some trumpian twists. specifically: tax cuts for the wealthy: no brainer rolling back financial regulation: no-brainer comeuppance for 1 and 2: either another bubble like 2008 or huge deficits leading eventually to a tax increase (like reagan to (h.w.) bush). another war: trump is thin-skinned and hence a prime candidate for manipulation by terrorists who seek to escalate conflict. so, another war beckons. probably, syria in a coalition with putin. trumpian twists: construction: trump is will try to build roads, bridges, infrastructure etc. this is an anathema to paul ryan et al. they will try to prevent this so not clear how much will happen. democrats of course will be into this and will try to help trump achieve it. russia expansion: putin will co-opt baltic states. nato will not defend hence this will be the end of nato credibility. trade: token tariffs will be imposed. maybe carrier air conditioner will be made into an example. but given threat of retaliation by trading partners, ryan/mcconnell will dampen trade controls. whatever happens, there will be little impact on jobs as technological change means fewer workers needed in manufacturing. the wall: he will build a tall but small wall. tv crews will film it. construction will stop but trump will lie and say he built whole thing. racism will go up: no-brainer. talk cheaplytweet trumprediction: nuclear proliferation november 15, 2016 in trumprediction | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment president-elect trump main framework for organizing human interaction is the zero-sum game. if he gives you anything, he wants something in return. he will soon be able to apply this deal-making philosophy to our strategic partners like japan and south korea. we can measure the costs of the bases, the personnel and the nuclear weapons that are helping given them security. the benefits – stopping nuclear proliferation – are hard to measure. are we giving them something for free? that is trump’s perspective it seems. can he get a better deal? if not, why not let these countries go nuclear? from the perspective of out strategic partners, if the us is not holding them up, why not go nuclear? so, chances are, we will see nuclear proliferation among our “allies” in the trump presidency. talk cheaplytweet evangelicals can delete dominated strategies but greens cannot november 14, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | 1 comment evangelical christians knew who trump was, had seen the videos and ads and yet still voted for trump. their main issue is the make-up of the supreme court and trump gave them a list of potential nominees they liked . he was more likely to choose an anti-abortion justice than hillary. so, the vast majority worked out their constrained optimal choice and went for it. greens could register a protest vote for jill stein in the election or choose between one of two electable candidates. no doubt, jill, if elected, would have tried to implement a first-best environmental policy (and failed to get it past a republican congress) but realistically it was choice between hillary getting nothing done or trump ripping up the obama legacy. the obvious legacy of interest to greens is the paris agreement and this is now the paris disagreement. and in michigan and wisconsin, hillary’s margin of loss is smaller than jill stein’s vote. of course, this is not enough – robby mook would have to have had the foresight to get beyonce to come to philly not cleveland. so why are evangelicals better than greens at this kind of reasoning? are greens just crazier? my colleague jorg spenkuch found a clever way to measure the fraction of crazy greens in germany – i think he finds it is 60%. not sure if he has a way to measuring crazy german evangelicals (if they exist)! another theory would be based on learning. evangelicals have been around the block a while and have learned the optimal strategy but greens have not. but a counterargument is the gore vs bush florida battle where ralph nader played a crucial role. surely the greens voters could remember having screwed up the election of the person who would have been the best president on the environment ever? i parry this thrust by positing the greens who voted for jill stein are so young that bush v gore is not part of their recalled history. talk cheaplytweet friday music november 11, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment ht krugman talk cheaplytweet trumprediction: isis november 10, 2016 in trumprediction | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment i was discussing some forecasts of what might befall under a trump presidency with a friend. he was skeptical of one of them but it turns out henry kissinger agrees with me: jg: so there is some chance of more instability. hk: i would make a general statement: i think most of the world’s foreign policy has been in suspense for six to nine months, waiting for the outcome of our election. they have just watched us undergo a domestic revolution. they will want to study it for some period. but at some point, events will necessitate decision making once more. the only exception to this rule may be nonstate groups; they may have an incentive to provoke an american reaction that undermines our global position. jg: the threat from isis is more serious now? hk: nonstate groups may make the assessment that trump will react to a terror attack in a way that suits their purposes. talk cheaplytweet forecaster horse race november 5, 2016 in uncategorized | by jeff | 4 comments how do you assess whether a probabilistic forecast was successful?  put aside the question of sequential forecasts updated over time.  that’s a puzzle in itself but on monday night each forecaster will have its final probability estimate and there remains the question of deciding, on wednesday morning, which one was “right.” give no credibility to pronouncements by, say 538, that they correctly forecasted x out of 50 states.  according to 538’s own model these are not independent events.  indeed the distinctive feature of 538’s election model is that the statewide errors are highly correlated.  that’s why they are putting trump’s chances at 35% as of today when a forecast based on independence would put that probability closer to 1% based on the large number of states where clinton has a significant (marginal) probability of winning. so for 538 especially (but really for all the forecasters that assume even moderate correlation) tuesday’s election is one data point.  if i tell you the chance of a coin coming up armageddon tails is 35%, you toss it once and it comes up tails you certainly have not proven me right. the best we can do is set up a horserace among the many forecasters.  the question is how do you decide which forecaster was “more right” based on tuesday’s outcome?  of course if trump wins then 538 was more right than every other forecaster but we do have more to go on than just the binary outcome. each forecaster’s model defines a probability distribution over electoral maps. indeed they produce their estimates by simulating their models to generate that distribution and then just count the fraction of maps that come out with an electoral win for trump.  the outcome on tuesday will be a map.  and we can ask based on that map who was more right. what yardstick should be used?  i propose maximum likelihood.  each forecaster on monday night should publish their final forecasted distribution of maps.  then on wednesday morning we ask which forecaster assigned the highest probability to the realized map. that’s not the only way to do it of course, but (if you are listening 538, etc) whatever criterion they are going to use to decide whether their model was a success they should announce it in advance. talk cheaplytweet economics nobel 2016: oliver hart and bengt holmstrom october 10, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | 1 comment it was great to wake up this morning and find that oliver hart and bengt holmström were awarded the nobel prize in economics for 2016. their research is the bread and butter of modern economic theory and hence is taught in all first-year phd microeconomics courses and more applied versions are taught to mbas in electives on organizational economics. let me begin with the work of bengt holmström. the prize announcement begins with his work on the principal-agent model with moral hazard: an agent privately chooses an action that impacts the welfare of a principal. the principal observes noisy signals of the action and rewards the agent as a function of the signals to align incentives. holmström asks: which variables should be included by the principal is her performance measure and which should be omitted? in the “sufficient statistic” result, he shows that variables should be included if and only if they contain information about the action. adding more signals into a performance measure would add superfluous noise into payments which the a risk-averse agent would have to be compensated for. on the other hand, subtracting informative signals from a performance would eliminate useful information for aligning incentives. this result poses a puzzle which bengt turns to in later work: real-world contracts are rarely as complex as the informativeness principle would suggest. why is that the case? in joint work with paul milgrom, holmström introduced the multi-task principal agent model. the main innovation was to allow the agent to perform multiple tasks and to substitute from one to the other. holmström and milgrom show that in certain circumstances it is better not to may pay responsive to performance. suppose someone working in a fast food restaurant can look after the kitchen or sell burgers. burger sales are measurable but time spent looking after the kitchen is not. then making pay depend on burger sales can backfire as the agent substitutes away from looking after the kitchen. better to have low-powered incentives which are relatively flat in burger sales. bengt has made at least two other seminal contributions to moral hazard models. in his work on moral hazard in teams he shows that it might be impossible achieve total value maximizing outcomes when joint output is measurable but individual output is not. in his career concerns model, he shows that an agent trying to prove he is high ability to a market might work too hard at the start of his career and then tail off at the end. all these papers are workhorses of applied theory. they show holmström’s flair of coming up with models that serve as vehicles for others to make interesting contributions to understanding incentives. i want to end my appreciation of bengt holmström by pointing out that several of these papers were written when he was an assistant professor in the meds department at kellogg. roger myerson has already won a nobel prize for the work he did when he was in meds. oliver hart took contract theory in a different direction by emphasizing the role of property rights. in the principal-agent model, the principal might be an employer and the agent an employee. or the principal might be one firm and the agent an independent subcontracter. in other words, the model cannot address the question of when trade should take place within a firm or across two firms. building on some informal ideas of oliver williamson, oliver hart with sandy grossman and john moore used the idea that contracts are incomplete to offer a unified theory of the optimal allocation of property rights. the key idea is that ownership of an asset confers residual rights of control so you can use it for production should a relationship break down. suppose a buyer and a seller are trading a widget. they can both invest ex ante to increase the value of trade but because contracts are incomplete they must haggle over the price ex post. this means both are subject to hold-up: the benefit of any costly investment is shared with the other trading party. hence, both will underinvest. this underinvestment is mitigated by the fact that if a player owns an asset he can use it to trade with others so at least he can capture some value from his investment. so, if one player’s investment is particularly important for value creation he should be own all the assets and employ the other – so we have an integrated firm. if both players’ investments are important, then they should both own assets and then we have trade across two independent firms. debt and equity confer decision rights in different ways. so, oliver hart’s way of looking at control rights has proved to be very fruitful in corporate finance. but there is a lot to be done. in particular, without a theory of why contracts are incomplete there is a tension between the lessons of mechanism design and the ideas in grossman-hart-moore. this tension was pointed out by maskin and tirole. eric maskin was my phd advisor at harvard and oliver arrived at harvard just as i graduated. at that point, my friend, co-author and advisor tomas sjöström, who was sitting at the podium during the announcement as he is on the nobel committee, was an assistant professor at harvard and i would visit to work with him. we became interested in oliver’s ideas and also knew of the maskin-tirole critique. so, tomas and i wrote a few papers studying optimal decision rights when agents can collude or renegotiate inefficient outcomes without falling afoul of the maskin-tirole critique. i continue to work on these questions still. i would never have worked on those papers without oliver’s seminal insights to build on. so, i am particularly happy personally with this prize. talk cheaplytweet should republicans dump trump – a backward induction argument august 5, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | 1 comment trump excites the “base” but not independents or traditional republicans who believe in free markets etc. the temptation for congressional republicans up for election is to use “strategic ambiguity” and have their cake and eat it. that is, say you support the republican presidential nominee but not embrace his positions, e.g like ayotte and mccain. this way, you hope ticket-splitters vote for you to check and balance hillary. unfortunately, obama moves second. he will say trump is unfit to be president, is not a republican and will tar supporters with the same brush. this way he will seek to slice off the base vote from the non-base. a vote for a supporter is a vote for trump. how will they check and balance a demagogue when they are not splitting with him now? also – and somewhat unexpectedly – trump is helping obama out here by refusing to endorse congressional republicans employing strategic ambiguity. he refuses to endorse ayotte and mccain because of criticisms etc. hence,he is signaling to his base not to support them (not sure if his strategy makes sense but i will take him at face value). so, on the one hand, obama will attack anyone on the fence by saying they support trump (hoping to peel off independents, “real” republicans and ticket-splitters) and trump will attack anyone on the fence by saying they do not support him (hoping his base will not support them?!!). so, strategic ambiguity is going to backfire so you have to pick a side. which side? can you win if you support him and he loses your state? if the answer is a likely yes, you support trump (e.g. rubio) and if it is a no, you dump trump. the more likely your state is to go for hillary, the more plausible your “i will check and balance hillary” argument and the less costly it is to dump trump. hence, toomey and ayotte are likely in this category. if the state is 50-50 like az, your choice is difficult, eg mccain, but you have to pick a side otherwise both may not vote for you. talk cheaplytweet thoughts left lying around about election forecasts july 21, 2016 in uncategorized | by jeff | 3 comments suppose one forecaster says the probability trump wins is q and the other says the probability is p>q.  if trump in fact wins, who was “right?” suppose one forecaster says the probability is q and the other says the probability is 100%.  if trump in fact wins, who was right? suppose one forecaster said q in july and then revised to p in october.  the other said q’ < q in july but then also revised to p in october.  who was right? suppose one forecaster continually revised their probabilistic forecast then ultimately settled on p<1.  the other forecaster steadfastly insisted the probability was 1 from beginning to end.  trump wins.  who was right? suppose one forecaster’s probability estimates follow a martingale (as the laws of probability say that a true probability must do) and settles on a forecast of q.  the other forecaster‘s “probability estimates” have a predictable trend and eventually settles on a forecast of q’>q.  trump wins.  who was right? suppose there are infinitely many forecasters so that for every possible sequence of events there is at least one forecaster who predicted it with certainty.  is that forecaster right? talk cheaplytweet henry viii and brexit june 27, 2016 in art of office politics, banana seeds, tongue in cheek, vapor mill | by sandeep baliga | 2 comments henry viii (the right-wing of the tory party) wanted to divorce his first wife (the eu) and marry anne boleyn (stop immigration and transfer payments to the eu ) but the catholic church (angela merkel) would not let him. so, he renounced catholicism and became a protestant, a new form of christianity conceived by martin luther (nigel farage). but then mary queen of scots (nicola sturgeon), a catholic, married a french prince when elizabeth i (boris johnson) eventually came to the throne. mary got beheaded and the elizabeth’s reign turned out pretty well. but here boris’s and elizabeth’s paths diverge. the protestant reformation was forward looking and emphasized the work ethic. faragism – to the extent it is a philosophy – is backward-looking and is about denying globalization. not clear then who gets beheaded, boris or nicola. talk cheaplytweet trumpellence and the donald’s optimal strategy june 16, 2016 in art of office politics, tongue in cheek, vapor mill | tags: current events, incentives | by sandeep baliga | 1 comment trump is the principal and a republican congress member is the agent. trump wants their support and wants to compel them to support him. there is no money to align incentives and all trump can do is shower with praise (e.g. people who cave in to him are “brave” like megyn kelly who went to visit him in trump tower after their dustup) or rain down abuse (e.g. the republican governor martinez of new mexico who dared to text during one of his speeches). from the agent perspective, since there is no money, there is only re-election probability. this leads to two cases. in one case, the agents reelection probability is increasing in being seen as pro-trump. then, trump should allocate praise and abuse in the natural way. in the other case, the agent’s re-election probability is decreasing in being seen as pro-trump but trump would still like republican support to increases his election chances. then, trump should visit the agent’s district if the agent does not support trump. he should say the agent is brave and lie and say the agent does support him. this threat maximizes compellence. marco rubio provides the most interesting example. he has lumped in with trump as he decides whether to run for re-election. if he throws his hat into the ring and trump’s polls tank in florida, donald should threaten to campaign there heavily if rubio shows signs of weakening in his support of trump. talk cheaplytweet why you don’t see ads for american idol on abc april 7, 2016 in uncategorized | by jeff | 7 comments what i wrote yesterday: when fox broadcasts the super bowl they advertise for their shows, like american idol. but those years in which, say, abc has the super bowl you will never see an ad for american idol during the super bowl broadcast. this is that sort of puzzle whose degree of puzzliness is non-monotonic in how good your economic intuition is. if you don’t think of it in economic terms at all it doesn’t seem at all like a puzzle. try it: ask your grandpa if he thinks that its odd that you never see networks advertising their shows on other networks.  of course they don’t do that. when you apply a little economics to it that’s when it starts to look like a puzzle. there is a price for advertising. the value of the ad is either higher or lower than the price. if its higher you advertise.  if its another network that price is the cost of advertising. if its your own network that price is still a cost: the opportunity cost is the price you would earn if instead you sold the ad to a third-party.  if it was worth it to advertise american idol when your own network has the super bowl then it should be worth it when some other network has it too. but a little more economics removes the puzzle.  networks have market power.  the way to use that market power for profit is to artificially restrict quantity and set price above marginal cost. (the marginal cost of running another 30 second ad is the cost in terms of viewership that would come from shortening, say, the halftime show by 30 seconds.) when a network chooses whether to run an ad for its own show on its own super bowl broadcast it compares the value of the ad to that marginal cost.  when a network chooses whether to run an ad on another network’s super bowl broadcast it compares the value to the price. indeed even if the total time for ads is given and not under control of the network (i.e. total quantity is fixed) the profit maximizing price for ads will typically only sell a fraction of that ad time.  then the marginal (opportunity) cost of the additional ads to pad that time is zero and even very low value ads like for american idol will be shown when fox has the super bowl and not when any other network does. in fact that last observation and the fact that you never ever see any network advertise its shows on another network tells us that the value of advertising television shows is very low.  perhaps that in fact tells us that the networks themselves understand (but their paying advertisers don’t) that the value of advertising in general is very low. talk cheaplytweet i think i finally figured it out april 6, 2016 in uncategorized | by jeff | 2 comments when fox broadcasts the super bowl they advertise for their shows, like american idol. but those years in which, say, abc has the super bowl you will never see an ad for american idol during the super bowl broadcast. more generally, networks advertise their own shows on their own network but never pay to advertise their shows on other networks.  i never understood this.  but i think i finally figured it out, there’s some very simple economics behind this. talk cheaplytweet what the contested convention odds tell us april 6, 2016 in uncategorized | by jeff | 4 comments right now at primary.guide, you can read the current betting market odds for a “contested convention” and a “brokered convention.”  the definitions are as follows.  a contested convention means that no candidate has 1237 delegates by the end of the last primary.  a brokered convention means that no candidate wins on the first ballot at the convention. right now the odds of a brokered convention are 50%.  note also that the odds of a trump nomination are 50% as well.  and trump is the only candidate with any chance of winning a majority on the first ballot (even if he doesn’t get 1237 bound delegates he will be close and no other candidate could combine their bound delegates with unbound delegates to get to a majority.) thus, if there is no brokered convention trump is the nominee.  the probability of no brokered convention is 50%.  thus the entire 50% probability of a trump nomination is accounted for by the event that he wins on the first ballot. in other words there is zero probability, according to betting markets, that trump wins a brokered convention. the odds of a contested convention are 80%. that means that betting markets think there is a 30% chance trump fails to get 1237 bound delegates but still wins on the first round.  i.e. according to betting markets we have the following three mutually exclusive events: trump gets to 1237 by june 7.  20% odds trump fails to get 1237 bound delegates but wins on the first ballot.  30% nobody wins on the first ballot and trump is not the nominee.  50% talk cheaplytweet who is the best republican presidential candidate for congressional republicans? march 16, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment donald trump: you are a lifelong republican and think trump is not a conservative. you would never vote for him. you go into the voting both and see clinton’s name and trump’s name. what do you do? either you bite the bullet and vote for clinton or you abstain. either way you have increased the probability that hillary wins – ok not by much but since you are in the voting booth in the first place, you’re not a fully rational voter and so you care about the infinitesimal impact you have. so, you decide to make sure she’s hamstrung by a republican congress. you vote for the republican congressional candidates. you would vote for cruz but suspect he is a bit nuts. you vote for the democratic congressional candidates to make sure cruz is ineffective. (kasich would actually be best all round but has no chance of making it.) talk cheaplytweet negative campaigning in multi-candidate elections february 10, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | 4 comments suppose politician c goes negative on politician m. politician’s m’s support declines..where do his supporters go? if there are just two candidates, they either go to politician c or stay at home. but if there are three or more candidates, they might go to politician a, b, or k etc etc. so, to a first order, it is less profitable to go negative the greater the number of candidates. this resembles the holmstrom teams model but with unproductive effort. talk cheaplytweet the establishment gop needs approval voting in the primaries february 8, 2016 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment from buzzfeed: henniker, new hampshire — in town halls, pizzerias, and high school auditoriums, hundreds of voters are carefully evaluating the three governors who have pinned their presidential hopes on tuesday’s primary in the granite state — jeb bush, chris christie, and john kasich. some have made their choice of the three; others are still undecided. but they all agree on one big thing: the republican party needs a strong contender coming out of new hampshire to take down donald trump. with the stakes so high, these “non-angry voters,” as described by some, are wrestling with whether to ultimately vote for their personal favorite — one of the three governors, or go by the polls in favor of a more practical favorite, sen. marco rubio. perhaps the gop should adopt approval voting as suggested by my colleague bob weber where each voter can “approve” as many candidates as he likes. of course, ted cruz and donald trump would disapprove or approval voting. talk cheaplytweet isil and its confused strategy november 17, 2015 in war | by sandeep baliga | 1 comment isil has taken war out of the middle east by bombing a russian plane and attacking paris. these attacks follow increased russian and western involvement in syria. what was the purpose of these attacks? it is useful to examine two polar opposite cases : isil’s acts seek to provoke or seek to deter. if they seek to provoke, the best case scenario for isil is that russia and the west respond by repressing muslims domestically. this anti-muslim fervor will generate propaganda that is useful for recruitment. but of course, the attacks will provoke a strong counter-response by france, russia and their allies in syria. finally, a russia-western coalition may even come into being. al qaeda’s diminished fate then awaits isil. a provocation cannot be targeted into only a domestic response and the international response will be so dramatic as to counterbalance any domestic response though, of course, it would also be wise not to give in to the temptation to cave in to anti-muslim fervor. if isil seek to deter – i.e. they are making us pay a price for increased involvement in syria and giving us an incentive to retreat – well that’s totally going to backfire. the french, british and russians are more likely to engage than less as i said above. in this case, isil’s strategy would be a complete misreading of the situation. so, either way, the isil strategy is going to fail. talk cheaplytweet what i like about kellogg… november 3, 2015 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment my colleagues are multi-talented: robert mcdonald, associate dean for faculty, and jeff cohen performing “here comes the weekend” by dave edmunds and nick lowe and “what’s so funny about peace, love and understanding?” by nick lowe. ht: bob mcdonald for telling me first song is also by dave edmunds. talk cheaplytweet prisoner’s dilemma everywhere: surge pricing and the uber driver strike october 26, 2015 in uncategorized | tags: teaching | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment uber drivers tried to organize a strike to demand higher pay. uber drivers are competing with each for fares. the smaller the number of other drivers on the road, the greater the chance a driver get business. also, when demand for rides outstrips supply of drivers, uber might activate surge pricing to increase supply. not only does a driver stand to get more business, he gets a higher fare/mile. the incentives to deviate from the strike are huge. so, in chicago, during the supposed strike, the number of uber drivers on the road was huge. surge pricing was not activated because it was not necessary. ht: an uber driver. talk cheaplytweet purple pricing and my andy warhol minute october 20, 2015 in uncategorized | tags: economics, teaching | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment i was on chicago tonight very briefly discussing purple pricing (see around 4 minute mark). http://video.wttw.com/viralplayer/2365587170 talk cheaplytweet rugby in australia and perfect competition october 9, 2015 in uncategorized | tags: teaching | by sandeep baliga | 1 comment good for teaching: in 2008, the new south wales government announced plans to build a coal mine here, promising jobs and cheap power. the coal business was booming because of demand from china. the government bought up 177 square miles of land for the mine project, boarding up 114 farms and homes. since then, coal prices have plummeted to their lowest level in years and the government has not been able to find a mining company willing to open a mine here. in 2013, the government abandoned its plans to develop the mine and last december appointed goldman sachs to sell the land. by then, the district had lost 95 families, about 10 percent of its population. a sense of loss pervades the town, and residents feel blindsided by forces beyond their control. talk cheaplytweet commitment and extraction of ransoms october 1, 2015 in uncategorized | tags: crime, game theory | by sandeep baliga | 1 comment party a steals something of value to party b and demands a ransom for its return. but once the ransom has been paid, what is to stop party a from coming back and demanding more? one mechanism that purchases commitment is reputation. party a has more ransoms to extract in the future and seeks to be seen as a fair player despite being an extortionist. an interesting example is provided by cryptowall. this “company” sends an email with a devious attachment, a virus that encrypts your harddrive if you click on it. they demand a ransom in bitcoin to send the decryption key. the price changes over time. the fact that they do not take your data means that they cannot come back and demand another ransom for the same data if you pay. because the price changes, there can be errors – you pay a ransom of 500 and by that time the price has gone up to 550 and you do not get the decryption key. what to do? a good credit card company would waive a late fee to keep a good reputation and so does cryptowall. from the new york times: use the cryptowall message interface to tell the criminals exactly what happened. be honest, in other words. so she did. she explained that the virus had struck the same week that a major snowstorm hit massachusetts and the thanksgiving holiday shut down the banks. she told them about the unexpected bitcoin shortfall and about dispatching her daughter to the coin cafe a.t.m. at the 11th hour. she swore she had really, really tried not to miss their deadline. and then a weird thing happened: her decryption key arrived. (ht: alex wearn) talk cheaplytweet leaving things unsaid september 30, 2015 in uncategorized | tags: art of office politics, cheap talk, decision-making | by sandeep baliga | leave a comment you are debating a point with a colleague. your colleague is wrong but to prove they are wrong you have to use information you know but cannot share. so, you leave things unsaid. of course, someone who does not know the facts would also leave things unsaid by definition. the listener knows that silence either conveys the fact that something is known but cannot be said or that nothing is known. their inference takes the fact that you might know something but cannot say it into account. they should give you the benefit of the doubt. the benefit depends on how likely you are to know things that cannot be said. hence, if the person leaving things unsaid is senior to the listener, the listener might defer to the speaker. hence, seniority leads to authority via the inference content from leaving things unsaid. talk cheaplytweet sherlock holmes on the optimal use of finite memory august 12, 2015 in uncategorized | tags: decision-making, economics | by sandeep baliga | 4 comments from a study in scarlet: “i consider that a man’s brain originally is like a little empty attic, and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose. a fool takes in all the lumber of every sort that he comes across, so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out, or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things so that he has a difficulty in laying his hands upon it. now the skillful workman is very careful indeed as to what he takes into his brain-attic. he will have nothing but the tools which may help him in doing his work, but of these he has a large assortment, and all in the most perfect order. it is a mistake to think that that little room has elastic walls and can distend to any extent. depend upon it there comes a time when for every addition of knowledge you forget something that you knew before. it is of the highest importance, therefore, not to have useless facts elbowing out the useful ones.” talk cheaplytweet deutsch(x)it july 13, 2015 in uncategorized | by sandeep baliga | 2 comments a gragreement has been semi-signed. originally, the eurozone/germany has offered two debt relief plans for greece. under plan a, greece votes on a number of structural reforms and puts e50blln of assets in a privatization fund in return for more bailout money and possible debt relief. assets are sold off to recapitalize the banks. under plan b, they get a time-out from the euro and debt relief. plan b is unpopular with the majority of voters in greece as they want to stay in the euro but may actually be better economically depending on the terms. (will the ec, ecb and imf actively help to create the new currency and give humanitarian aid? what are the terms of the debt relief?) but both plans have significant risk: plan a involves more austerity, declining gdp, greek groundhog day and probably eventual grexit; plan b causes the banks to collapse unless the troika comes up with some active help. a better plan is variation on plan b, if you will a plan g: germany should leave the euro. deutschit will not cause a bank run in germany as the mark will be strong and no depositors are at risk from a haircut. the euro will devalue helping not only greece but portugal, spain, italy, ireland and finland. the new eurozone can bail out greece and give debt relief. germany will not have to participate in any of this and this avoids one of the main political problems domestically. there is an economic downside for germany: the mark will appreciate so exports will be more expensive. but imports will be cheaper so there is less inflationary pressure. plus grexit would cause some appreciation of the euro anyway so even plan b has that implication. the main problem with plan g is it appears to signal the end of the eurozone. this is a blow to merkel’s record as chancellor. but deutschit makes the rest of the eurozone stronger as they can deal with the the overvaluation of their common currency. plan a, plan b and european economic performance post-2008 already demonstrate that monetary union without political and fiscal union does not work. in fact, deutschit signals that germany will take a somewhat costly action to help fellow ec members. it is more likely to stabilize the eurozone than the other options. it is success for europe if deutschit occurs not a failure. once the new eurozone has stabilized, germany can rejoin. of course, it will have to meet fiscal targets to be accepted by the new eurozone including greece. if germany can’t return because they carry too much debt, that would both be eironikos and cause for epichairekakia (schadenfreude). talk cheaplytweet top posts why is it a crime to park facing the wrong way? what is the recommended serving temperature for guinness? how to shill on ebay the ornament game pricing bareback left, right, then left again why exams should be open book why does the fastest swimmer anchor a relay? who we are who gets more pleasure from sex? tagsart art of office politics banana seeds blog books boston california chicago coffee computers crime current events decision-making economics education evolution family financial crisis food and wine friends funny game theory incentives iphone kludge language law marriage maths movies music obama politics psychology publishing sandeep has bad taste sanitation sport statistics suicide teaching terrorism the web tomatoes travel tv vapor mill war winter writingsubscribe via rssrss - posts jeff’s twitter feed biggest strategic blind spot in football: on first down players should be running out of bounds after gaining 9.5 yards. 1 week ago things that can be low-grade besides a fever: low-grade insomnia, low-grade epiphany, low-grade apocalypse. 2 weeks ago "job creation" twitter.com/realdonaldtrum… 3 weeks ago education is a public good 3 weeks ago worth reading twitter.com/wpjenna/status… 4 weeks ago follow @jeffelyemail subscription enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. join 1,735 other followers « previous entries create a free website or blog at wordpress.com.ben eastaugh and chris sternal-johnson. subscribe to feed. post to cancel


Here you find all texts from your page as Google (googlebot) and others search engines seen it.

Words density analysis:

Numbers of all words: 7267

One word

Two words phrases

Three words phrases

the - 8% (581)
and - 3.15% (229)
for - 1.86% (135)
hat - 1.53% (111)
her - 1.38% (100)
that - 1.27% (92)
not - 1.09% (79)
trump - 1.03% (75)
can - 1.02% (74)
you - 1% (73)
are - 0.95% (69)
all - 0.92% (67)
but - 0.84% (61)
his - 0.81% (59)
will - 0.81% (59)
one - 0.67% (49)
out - 0.66% (48)
with - 0.59% (43)
other - 0.58% (42)
they - 0.54% (39)
work - 0.52% (38)
have - 0.51% (37)
this - 0.5% (36)
ted - 0.5% (36)
use - 0.48% (35)
here - 0.48% (35)
was - 0.48% (35)
art - 0.47% (34)
our - 0.47% (34)
cheap - 0.47% (34)
end - 0.45% (33)
talk - 0.44% (32)
has - 0.44% (32)
comment - 0.41% (30)
forecast - 0.41% (30)
their - 0.41% (30)
cheaplytweet - 0.41% (30)
who - 0.4% (29)
like - 0.39% (28)
any - 0.39% (28)
would - 0.37% (27)
two - 0.36% (26)
more - 0.36% (26)
sandeep - 0.36% (26)
vote - 0.34% (25)
how - 0.34% (25)
win - 0.34% (25)
some - 0.34% (25)
see - 0.34% (25)
there - 0.34% (25)
baliga - 0.34% (25)
side - 0.33% (24)
should - 0.33% (24)
own - 0.32% (23)
2016 - 0.32% (23)
then - 0.32% (23)
ability - 0.32% (23)
ever - 0.3% (22)
uncategorized - 0.3% (22)
thing - 0.3% (22)
right - 0.3% (22)
get - 0.29% (21)
low - 0.29% (21)
probability - 0.29% (21)
when - 0.29% (21)
public - 0.28% (20)
from - 0.28% (20)
come - 0.28% (20)
agent - 0.28% (20)
its - 0.26% (19)
even - 0.26% (19)
say - 0.26% (19)
forecaster - 0.26% (19)
republican - 0.25% (18)
economic - 0.25% (18)
support - 0.25% (18)
 the - 0.25% (18)
what - 0.25% (18)
network - 0.25% (18)
did - 0.23% (17)
part - 0.23% (17)
now - 0.23% (17)
plan - 0.23% (17)
state - 0.23% (17)
leave - 0.23% (17)
show - 0.23% (17)
into - 0.22% (16)
over - 0.22% (16)
so, - 0.22% (16)
way - 0.22% (16)
on. - 0.22% (16)
form - 0.22% (16)
election - 0.21% (15)
 a - 0.21% (15)
day - 0.21% (15)
eat - 0.21% (15)
 i - 0.19% (14)
fact - 0.19% (14)
euro - 0.19% (14)
new - 0.19% (14)
price - 0.19% (14)
which - 0.19% (14)
candidate - 0.19% (14)
might - 0.19% (14)
– - 0.19% (14)
many - 0.18% (13)
first - 0.18% (13)
very - 0.18% (13)
him - 0.18% (13)
off - 0.18% (13)
model - 0.18% (13)
cause - 0.18% (13)
congress - 0.18% (13)
wins - 0.18% (13)
under - 0.18% (13)
lie - 0.18% (13)
value - 0.18% (13)
depend - 0.18% (13)
sure - 0.17% (12)
november - 0.17% (12)
think - 0.17% (12)
economics - 0.17% (12)
set - 0.17% (12)
mark - 0.17% (12)
time - 0.17% (12)
course - 0.17% (12)
your - 0.17% (12)
them - 0.17% (12)
cost - 0.17% (12)
event - 0.17% (12)
theory - 0.15% (11)
chance - 0.15% (11)
put - 0.15% (11)
convention - 0.15% (11)
take - 0.15% (11)
let - 0.15% (11)
action - 0.15% (11)
base - 0.15% (11)
super - 0.15% (11)
high - 0.15% (11)
war - 0.15% (11)
shows - 0.15% (11)
rest - 0.15% (11)
does - 0.15% (11)
about - 0.15% (11)
another - 0.14% (10)
prediction - 0.14% (10)
likely - 0.14% (10)
each - 0.14% (10)
bowl - 0.14% (10)
pay - 0.14% (10)
incentive - 0.14% (10)
ask - 0.14% (10)
suppose - 0.14% (10)
german - 0.14% (10)
eric - 0.14% (10)
mine - 0.14% (10)
may - 0.14% (10)
said - 0.14% (10)
ago - 0.14% (10)
why - 0.14% (10)
than - 0.12% (9)
principal - 0.12% (9)
trump. - 0.12% (9)
road - 0.12% (9)
driver - 0.12% (9)
only - 0.12% (9)
list - 0.12% (9)
back - 0.12% (9)
jeff - 0.12% (9)
make - 0.12% (9)
hence - 0.12% (9)
germany - 0.12% (9)
2015 - 0.12% (9)
outcome - 0.12% (9)
president - 0.12% (9)
ads - 0.12% (9)
because - 0.12% (9)
both - 0.12% (9)
she - 0.12% (9)
able - 0.12% (9)
give - 0.12% (9)
oliver - 0.12% (9)
these - 0.12% (9)
know - 0.12% (9)
best - 0.12% (9)
never - 0.12% (9)
point - 0.12% (9)
greens - 0.12% (9)
comments - 0.12% (9)
also - 0.12% (9)
comes - 0.11% (8)
just - 0.11% (8)
donald - 0.11% (8)
acts - 0.11% (8)
post - 0.11% (8)
ring - 0.11% (8)
help - 0.11% (8)
isil - 0.11% (8)
party - 0.11% (8)
hillary - 0.11% (8)
market - 0.11% (8)
poll - 0.11% (8)
clear - 0.11% (8)
etc - 0.11% (8)
incentives - 0.11% (8)
look - 0.11% (8)
russia - 0.11% (8)
making - 0.11% (8)
things - 0.11% (8)
case - 0.11% (8)
advertise - 0.11% (8)
american - 0.11% (8)
trumprediction - 0.11% (8)
tar - 0.11% (8)
less - 0.11% (8)
led - 0.11% (8)
want - 0.11% (8)
cannot - 0.11% (8)
lot - 0.1% (7)
something - 0.1% (7)
debt - 0.1% (7)
still - 0.1% (7)
idol - 0.1% (7)
read - 0.1% (7)
course, - 0.1% (7)
power - 0.1% (7)
it. - 0.1% (7)
run - 0.1% (7)
invest - 0.1% (7)
odd - 0.1% (7)
rain - 0.1% (7)
count - 0.1% (7)
eurozone - 0.1% (7)
perform - 0.1% (7)
seek - 0.1% (7)
demand - 0.1% (7)
whether - 0.1% (7)
holmström - 0.1% (7)
attack - 0.1% (7)
fee - 0.1% (7)
most - 0.1% (7)
better - 0.1% (7)
major - 0.1% (7)
tags: - 0.1% (7)
once - 0.1% (7)
too - 0.1% (7)
signal - 0.1% (7)
down - 0.1% (7)
either - 0.1% (7)
candidates - 0.1% (7)
ransom - 0.1% (7)
states - 0.1% (7)
week - 0.1% (7)
increase - 0.1% (7)
big - 0.1% (7)
october - 0.1% (7)
been - 0.08% (6)
follow - 0.08% (6)
bengt - 0.08% (6)
hart - 0.08% (6)
puzzle - 0.08% (6)
map - 0.08% (6)
every - 0.08% (6)
try - 0.08% (6)
538 - 0.08% (6)
right? - 0.08% (6)
add - 0.08% (6)
had - 0.08% (6)
events - 0.08% (6)
rights - 0.08% (6)
strategy - 0.08% (6)
obama - 0.08% (6)
asset - 0.08% (6)
contract - 0.08% (6)
margin - 0.08% (6)
prove - 0.08% (6)
player - 0.08% (6)
idea - 0.08% (6)
interest - 0.08% (6)
decision - 0.08% (6)
republicans - 0.08% (6)
balance - 0.08% (6)
optimal - 0.08% (6)
bush - 0.08% (6)
choose - 0.08% (6)
presidency - 0.08% (6)
gets - 0.08% (6)
tell - 0.08% (6)
voter - 0.08% (6)
networks - 0.08% (6)
congressional - 0.08% (6)
government - 0.08% (6)
uber - 0.08% (6)
pricing - 0.08% (6)
term - 0.08% (6)
broadcast - 0.08% (6)
late - 0.08% (6)
trade - 0.08% (6)
hit - 0.08% (6)
odds - 0.08% (6)
means - 0.08% (6)
delegates - 0.08% (6)
voting - 0.08% (6)
politics - 0.08% (6)
main - 0.08% (6)
bound - 0.08% (6)
strategic - 0.08% (6)
clinton - 0.08% (6)
round - 0.08% (6)
blog - 0.08% (6)
brokered - 0.08% (6)
nuclear - 0.08% (6)
greece - 0.08% (6)
east - 0.07% (5)
person - 0.07% (5)
agree - 0.07% (5)
teaching - 0.07% (5)
looking - 0.07% (5)
lowe - 0.07% (5)
after - 0.07% (5)
domestic - 0.07% (5)
role - 0.07% (5)
where - 0.07% (5)
care - 0.07% (5)
firm - 0.07% (5)
chris - 0.07% (5)
 if - 0.07% (5)
drivers - 0.07% (5)
brain - 0.07% (5)
were - 0.07% (5)
decide - 0.07% (5)
number - 0.07% (5)
top - 0.07% (5)
independent - 0.07% (5)
that’s - 0.07% (5)
final - 0.07% (5)
relief - 0.07% (5)
polls - 0.07% (5)
stand - 0.07% (5)
question - 0.07% (5)
unsaid - 0.07% (5)
states. - 0.07% (5)
signals - 0.07% (5)
three - 0.07% (5)
land - 0.07% (5)
coal - 0.07% (5)
useful - 0.07% (5)
happen - 0.07% (5)
performance - 0.07% (5)
politician - 0.07% (5)
based - 0.07% (5)
little - 0.07% (5)
air - 0.07% (5)
during - 0.07% (5)
him. - 0.07% (5)
control - 0.07% (5)
e.g - 0.07% (5)
marginal - 0.07% (5)
advertising - 0.07% (5)
hence, - 0.07% (5)
evangelical - 0.07% (5)
is. - 0.07% (5)
good - 0.07% (5)
response - 0.07% (5)
measure - 0.07% (5)
mary - 0.07% (5)
 but - 0.07% (5)
data - 0.07% (5)
colleague - 0.07% (5)
years - 0.07% (5)
investment - 0.07% (5)
ballot - 0.07% (5)
1237 - 0.07% (5)
50% - 0.07% (5)
build - 0.07% (5)
john - 0.06% (4)
going - 0.06% (4)
announce - 0.06% (4)
nobel - 0.06% (4)
terms - 0.06% (4)
eventual - 0.06% (4)
says - 0.06% (4)
benefit - 0.06% (4)
takes - 0.06% (4)
july - 0.06% (4)
return - 0.06% (4)
west - 0.06% (4)
 and - 0.06% (4)
tuesday - 0.06% (4)
higher - 0.06% (4)
don’t - 0.06% (4)
indeed - 0.06% (4)
office - 0.06% (4)
bank - 0.06% (4)
rubio - 0.06% (4)
key - 0.06% (4)
bit - 0.06% (4)
low-grade - 0.06% (4)
being - 0.06% (4)
weeks - 0.06% (4)
coming - 0.06% (4)
coin - 0.06% (4)
deutschit - 0.06% (4)
prize - 0.06% (4)
trumprediction: - 0.06% (4)
tail - 0.06% (4)
complete - 0.06% (4)
burger - 0.06% (4)
contested - 0.06% (4)
sell - 0.06% (4)
assets - 0.06% (4)
employ - 0.06% (4)
strong - 0.06% (4)
understand - 0.06% (4)
strike - 0.06% (4)
without - 0.06% (4)
maskin - 0.06% (4)
subscribe - 0.06% (4)
betting - 0.06% (4)
plans - 0.06% (4)
total - 0.06% (4)
contracts - 0.06% (4)
(e.g. - 0.06% (4)
last - 0.06% (4)
markets - 0.06% (4)
nominee - 0.06% (4)
papers - 0.06% (4)
then, - 0.06% (4)
check - 0.06% (4)
game - 0.06% (4)
feed - 0.06% (4)
email - 0.06% (4)
hand, - 0.06% (4)
earn - 0.06% (4)
russian - 0.06% (4)
join - 0.06% (4)
between - 0.06% (4)
seen - 0.06% (4)
choice - 0.06% (4)
etc. - 0.06% (4)
lead - 0.06% (4)
wants - 0.06% (4)
majority - 0.06% (4)
estimate - 0.06% (4)
job - 0.06% (4)
errors - 0.06% (4)
evangelicals - 0.06% (4)
voters - 0.06% (4)
impact - 0.06% (4)
others - 0.06% (4)
trump’s - 0.06% (4)
those - 0.06% (4)
presidential - 0.06% (4)
provoke - 0.06% (4)
syria - 0.06% (4)
though - 0.06% (4)
distribution - 0.06% (4)
done - 0.06% (4)
stop - 0.06% (4)
nate - 0.06% (4)
threat - 0.06% (4)
jill - 0.06% (4)
seem - 0.06% (4)
chicago - 0.06% (4)
power. - 0.04% (3)
money - 0.04% (3)
puzzle. - 0.04% (3)
elizabeth - 0.04% (3)
came - 0.04% (3)
perspective - 0.04% (3)
boris - 0.04% (3)
current - 0.04% (3)
sort - 0.04% (3)
member - 0.04% (3)
giving - 0.04% (3)
say, - 0.04% (3)
abc - 0.04% (3)
proliferation - 0.04% (3)
tuesday’s - 0.04% (3)
helping - 0.04% (3)
scenario - 0.04% (3)
since - 0.04% (3)
fox - 0.04% (3)
re-election - 0.04% (3)
hard - 0.04% (3)
case, - 0.04% (3)
april - 0.04% (3)
partners - 0.04% (3)
 is - 0.04% (3)
martin - 0.04% (3)
twists - 0.04% (3)
paris - 0.04% (3)
nothing - 0.04% (3)
harvard - 0.04% (3)
tried - 0.04% (3)
visit - 0.04% (3)
candidates. - 0.04% (3)
stein - 0.04% (3)
dump - 0.04% (3)
argument - 0.04% (3)
free - 0.04% (3)
protest - 0.04% (3)
could - 0.04% (3)
ayotte - 0.04% (3)
same - 0.04% (3)
trumpian - 0.04% (3)
catholic - 0.04% (3)
small - 0.04% (3)
(the - 0.04% (3)
mill - 0.04% (3)
vapor - 0.04% (3)
politics, - 0.04% (3)
chances - 0.04% (3)
june - 0.04% (3)
possible - 0.04% (3)
mccain - 0.04% (3)
 trump - 0.04% (3)
 who - 0.04% (3)
revised - 0.04% (3)
knew - 0.04% (3)
left - 0.04% (3)
ambiguity - 0.04% (3)
wall. - 0.04% (3)
ideas - 0.04% (3)
tall - 0.04% (3)
decryption - 0.04% (3)
wrong - 0.04% (3)
decision-making - 0.04% (3)
leaving - 0.04% (3)
home - 0.04% (3)
cryptowall - 0.04% (3)
rust - 0.04% (3)
example - 0.04% (3)
said. - 0.04% (3)
fully - 0.04% (3)
appear - 0.04% (3)
land. - 0.04% (3)
company - 0.04% (3)
business - 0.04% (3)
makes - 0.04% (3)
listener - 0.04% (3)
via - 0.04% (3)
generate - 0.04% (3)
deal - 0.04% (3)
gave - 0.04% (3)
twitter - 0.04% (3)
web - 0.04% (3)
crime - 0.04% (3)
posts - 0.04% (3)
success - 0.04% (3)
problem - 0.04% (3)
finite - 0.04% (3)
risk - 0.04% (3)
food - 0.04% (3)
correlated - 0.04% (3)
banks - 0.04% (3)
outcomes - 0.04% (3)
relief. - 0.04% (3)
independence - 0.04% (3)
plausible - 0.04% (3)
change - 0.04% (3)
finally - 0.04% (3)
words - 0.04% (3)
winning - 0.04% (3)
convention. - 0.04% (3)
reading - 0.04% (3)
much - 0.04% (3)
hope - 0.04% (3)
made - 0.04% (3)
name - 0.04% (3)
agreement - 0.04% (3)
zero - 0.04% (3)
trading - 0.04% (3)
second - 0.04% (3)
profit - 0.04% (3)
worth - 0.04% (3)
according - 0.04% (3)
increased - 0.04% (3)
surge - 0.04% (3)
primary - 0.04% (3)
ht: - 0.04% (3)
well - 0.04% (3)
i.e. - 0.04% (3)
attacks - 0.04% (3)
favor - 0.04% (3)
16, - 0.04% (3)
— - 0.04% (3)
eventually - 0.04% (3)
approval - 0.04% (3)
brainer - 0.04% (3)
negative - 0.04% (3)
2008 - 0.04% (3)
huge - 0.04% (3)
cruz - 0.04% (3)
given - 0.04% (3)
governor - 0.04% (3)
this. - 0.04% (3)
moral - 0.04% (3)
horse - 0.04% (3)
interesting - 0.04% (3)
chooses - 0.04% (3)
not. - 0.04% (3)
certain - 0.04% (3)
estimates - 0.04% (3)
models - 0.04% (3)
study - 0.04% (3)
fast - 0.04% (3)
incomplete - 0.04% (3)
used - 0.04% (3)
maps - 0.04% (3)
hazard - 0.04% (3)
night - 0.04% (3)
important - 0.04% (3)
general - 0.04% (3)
professor - 0.04% (3)
least - 0.04% (3)
morning - 0.04% (3)
sales - 0.04% (3)
constitutional - 0.04% (3)
across - 0.04% (3)
begin - 0.04% (3)
place - 0.04% (3)
henry - 0.04% (3)
kitchen - 0.04% (3)
backfire - 0.04% (3)
electoral - 0.04% (3)
around - 0.04% (3)
music - 0.04% (3)
fraction - 0.04% (3)
thinks - 0.04% (3)
information - 0.04% (3)
find - 0.04% (3)
great - 0.04% (3)
forecasters - 0.04% (3)
really - 0.04% (3)
forecasts - 0.04% (3)
10, - 0.04% (3)
incentives. - 0.04% (3)
end. - 0.04% (3)
costly - 0.04% (3)
isis - 0.04% (3)
loses - 0.04% (3)
race - 0.04% (3)
right. - 0.04% (3)
terror - 0.04% (3)
time. - 0.04% (3)
stay - 0.04% (3)
align - 0.04% (3)
wise - 0.03% (2)
(ht - 0.03% (2)
assess - 0.03% (2)
farfetched. - 0.03% (2)
such - 0.03% (2)
thought - 0.03% (2)
direct - 0.03% (2)
deter - 0.03% (2)
purple - 0.03% (2)
dave - 0.03% (2)
today - 0.03% (2)
edmunds - 0.03% (2)
phd - 0.03% (2)
nick - 0.03% (2)
simple - 0.03% (2)
democrats - 0.03% (2)
activate - 0.03% (2)
funny - 0.03% (2)
majorities - 0.03% (2)
applied - 0.03% (2)
taught - 0.03% (2)
mcdonald - 0.03% (2)
pay. - 0.03% (2)
supply - 0.03% (2)
huge. - 0.03% (2)
particularly - 0.03% (2)
allies - 0.03% (2)
february - 0.03% (2)
myerson - 0.03% (2)
hampshire - 0.03% (2)
needs - 0.03% (2)
gop - 0.03% (2)
greater - 0.03% (2)
candidates, - 0.03% (2)
m’s - 0.03% (2)
financial - 0.03% (2)
no-brainer - 0.03% (2)
governors - 0.03% (2)
actually - 0.03% (2)
included - 0.03% (2)
whole - 0.03% (2)
react - 0.03% (2)
groups - 0.03% (2)
congress. - 0.03% (2)
variables - 0.03% (2)
do? - 0.03% (2)
authority - 0.03% (2)
town - 0.03% (2)
tax - 0.03% (2)
fervor - 0.03% (2)
western - 0.03% (2)
anti-muslim - 0.03% (2)
domestically. - 0.03% (2)
announcement - 0.03% (2)
doing - 0.03% (2)
isil’s - 0.03% (2)
cases - 0.03% (2)
purpose - 0.03% (2)
syria. - 0.03% (2)
andy - 0.03% (2)
principal-agent - 0.03% (2)
rule - 0.03% (2)
justice - 0.03% (2)
friday - 0.03% (2)
bad - 0.03% (2)
jeff’s - 0.03% (2)
bob - 0.03% (2)
perhaps - 0.03% (2)
favorite - 0.03% (2)
personal - 0.03% (2)
seems - 0.03% (2)
involvement - 0.03% (2)
open - 0.03% (2)
minute - 0.03% (2)
create - 0.03% (2)
 of - 0.03% (2)
large - 0.03% (2)
silver - 0.03% (2)
35% - 0.03% (2)
forecaster’s - 0.03% (2)
active - 0.03% (2)
maps. - 0.03% (2)
probably - 0.03% (2)
economics, - 0.03% (2)
political - 0.03% (2)
538’s - 0.03% (2)
highly - 0.03% (2)
court - 0.03% (2)
greece. - 0.03% (2)
other, - 0.03% (2)
13, - 0.03% (2)
addition - 0.03% (2)
careful - 0.03% (2)
upon - 0.03% (2)
bail - 0.03% (2)
plus - 0.03% (2)
originally - 0.03% (2)
seeds - 0.03% (2)
aggregators - 0.03% (2)
failure - 0.03% (2)
assume - 0.03% (2)
players - 0.03% (2)
blind - 0.03% (2)
law - 0.03% (2)
evolution - 0.03% (2)
education - 0.03% (2)
book - 0.03% (2)
grexit - 0.03% (2)
tails - 0.03% (2)
(but - 0.03% (2)
wine - 0.03% (2)
europe - 0.03% (2)
stabilize - 0.03% (2)
fiscal - 0.03% (2)
union - 0.03% (2)
winning. - 0.03% (2)
significant - 0.03% (2)
knowledge - 0.03% (2)
despite - 0.03% (2)
perfect - 0.03% (2)
monday - 0.03% (2)
key. - 0.03% (2)
send - 0.03% (2)
bitcoin - 0.03% (2)
virus - 0.03% (2)
yet - 0.03% (2)
cryptowall. - 0.03% (2)
peotus - 0.03% (2)
extract - 0.03% (2)
ransoms - 0.03% (2)
belt - 0.03% (2)
commitment - 0.03% (2)
 that’s - 0.03% (2)
30% - 0.03% (2)
level - 0.03% (2)
holmstrom - 0.03% (2)
roger - 0.03% (2)
here, - 0.03% (2)
including - 0.03% (2)
probabilistic - 0.03% (2)
changes - 0.03% (2)
highest - 0.03% (2)
four - 0.03% (2)
credibility - 0.03% (2)
forecasted - 0.03% (2)
senior - 0.03% (2)
map. - 0.03% (2)
having - 0.03% (2)
inference - 0.03% (2)
known - 0.03% (2)
538, - 0.03% (2)
facts - 0.03% (2)
unsaid. - 0.03% (2)
wednesday - 0.03% (2)
abandoned - 0.03% (2)
tip - 0.03% (2)
problems - 0.03% (2)
appears - 0.03% (2)
publish - 0.03% (2)
 then - 0.03% (2)
unexpected - 0.03% (2)
banks. - 0.03% (2)
working - 0.03% (2)
limits - 0.03% (2)
fails - 0.03% (2)
primary. - 0.03% (2)
now? - 0.03% (2)
firms. - 0.03% (2)
ultimately - 0.03% (2)
rights. - 0.03% (2)
q’ - 0.03% (2)
october. - 0.03% (2)
address - 0.03% (2)
role. - 0.03% (2)
wins, - 0.03% (2)
voted - 0.03% (2)
expansion - 0.03% (2)
wins. - 0.03% (2)
“i - 0.03% (2)
hillary. - 0.03% (2)
pick - 0.03% (2)
21, - 0.03% (2)
(hoping - 0.03% (2)
saying - 0.03% (2)
fence - 0.03% (2)
anyone - 0.03% (2)
face - 0.03% (2)
property - 0.03% (2)
among - 0.03% (2)
grossman - 0.03% (2)
bengt holmström - 0.03% (2)
serve - 0.03% (2)
french - 0.03% (2)
understanding - 0.03% (2)
federal - 0.03% (2)
30, - 0.03% (2)
appreciation - 0.03% (2)
) but - 0.03% (2)
nuclear? - 0.03% (2)
tory - 0.03% (2)
assistant - 0.03% (2)
settles - 0.03% (2)
cheek, - 0.03% (2)
tongue - 0.03% (2)
banana - 0.03% (2)
meds - 0.03% (2)
already - 0.03% (2)
size - 0.03% (2)
viii - 0.03% (2)
different - 0.03% (2)
environment - 0.03% (2)
sense - 0.03% (2)
endorse - 0.03% (2)
beheaded - 0.03% (2)
policy - 0.03% (2)
maskin-tirole - 0.03% (2)
oliver’s - 0.03% (2)
became - 0.03% (2)
smaller - 0.03% (2)
tomas - 0.03% (2)
arrived - 0.03% (2)
loss - 0.03% (2)
advisor - 0.03% (2)
past - 0.03% (2)
wrote - 0.03% (2)
pointed - 0.03% (2)
mechanism - 0.03% (2)
tension - 0.03% (2)
party. - 0.03% (2)
michigan - 0.03% (2)
infrastructure - 0.03% (2)
confer - 0.03% (2)
legacy - 0.03% (2)
owns - 0.03% (2)
critique. - 0.03% (2)
few - 0.03% (2)
florida - 0.03% (2)
gore - 0.03% (2)
somewhat - 0.03% (2)
moore - 0.03% (2)
supporters - 0.03% (2)
worked - 0.03% (2)
moves - 0.03% (2)
offer - 0.03% (2)
went - 0.03% (2)
ticket-splitters - 0.03% (2)
way, - 0.03% (2)
temptation - 0.03% (2)
agents - 0.03% (2)
(if - 0.03% (2)
depends - 0.03% (2)
independents - 0.03% (2)
august - 0.03% (2)
ante - 0.03% (2)
backward - 0.03% (2)
must - 0.03% (2)
crazy - 0.03% (2)
long - 0.03% (2)
got - 0.03% (2)
elizabeth’s - 0.03% (2)
payments - 0.03% (2)
cost. - 0.03% (2)
milgrom - 0.03% (2)
low. - 0.03% (2)
tells - 0.03% (2)
example. - 0.03% (2)
point, - 0.03% (2)
compares - 0.03% (2)
someone - 0.03% (2)
running - 0.03% (2)
partners, - 0.03% (2)
substitute - 0.03% (2)
above - 0.03% (2)
quantity - 0.03% (2)
election. - 0.03% (2)
sold - 0.03% (2)
whatever - 0.03% (2)
opportunity - 0.03% (2)
jobs - 0.03% (2)
hk: - 0.03% (2)
price. - 0.03% (2)
figured - 0.03% (2)
out, - 0.03% (2)
advertising. - 0.03% (2)
result - 0.03% (2)
ballot. - 0.03% (2)
micro - 0.03% (2)
nominee. - 0.03% (2)
close - 0.03% (2)
effective - 0.03% (2)
informative - 0.03% (2)
global - 0.03% (2)
nomination - 0.03% (2)
50%. - 0.03% (2)
coalition - 0.03% (2)
nato - 0.03% (2)
poses - 0.03% (2)
creation - 0.03% (2)
paul - 0.03% (2)
ryan - 0.03% (2)
joint - 0.03% (2)
al. - 0.03% (2)
nonstate - 0.03% (2)
achieve - 0.03% (2)
putin - 0.03% (2)
lower - 0.03% (2)
networks. - 0.03% (2)
reign - 0.03% (2)
model, - 0.03% (2)
brave - 0.03% (2)
district - 0.03% (2)
pro-trump - 0.03% (2)
popular - 0.03% (2)
agent’s - 0.03% (2)
maximizing - 0.03% (2)
output - 0.03% (2)
leads - 0.03% (2)
career - 0.03% (2)
abuse - 0.03% (2)
turns - 0.03% (2)
lost - 0.03% (2)
cave - 0.03% (2)
praise - 0.03% (2)
compel - 0.03% (2)
discussing - 0.03% (2)
start - 0.03% (2)
extent - 0.03% (2)
protestant - 0.03% (2)
well. - 0.03% (2)
marco - 0.03% (2)
president-elect - 0.03% (2)
measurable - 0.03% (2)
shows, - 0.03% (2)
jg: - 0.03% (2)
construction - 0.03% (2)
doesn’t - 0.03% (2)
won - 0.03% (2)
within - 0.03% (2)
up: - 0.03% (2)
broadcast. - 0.03% (2)
which, - 0.03% (2)
idol. - 0.03% (2)
flat - 0.03% (2)
south - 0.03% (2)
human - 0.03% (2)
broadcasts - 0.03% (2)
seminal - 0.03% (2)
contributions - 0.03% (2)
return. - 0.03% (2)
apply - 0.03% (2)
philosophy - 0.03% (2)
campaign - 0.03% (2)
teams - 0.03% (2)
point. - 0.03% (2)
of the - 0.47% (34)
talk cheaplytweet - 0.41% (30)
sandeep baliga - 0.34% (25)
by sandeep - 0.34% (25)
baliga | - 0.34% (25)
and the - 0.33% (24)
on the - 0.32% (23)
in uncategorized - 0.3% (22)
uncategorized | - 0.3% (22)
2016 in - 0.29% (21)
at the - 0.26% (19)
in the - 0.23% (17)
| leave - 0.19% (14)
a comment - 0.19% (14)
leave a - 0.19% (14)
there is - 0.19% (14)
is the - 0.19% (14)
as the - 0.18% (13)
to the - 0.18% (13)
if the - 0.18% (13)
the agent - 0.18% (13)
the other - 0.18% (13)
will be - 0.18% (13)
that the - 0.17% (12)
vote for - 0.17% (12)
for the - 0.17% (12)
super bowl - 0.14% (10)
is not - 0.12% (9)
should be - 0.12% (9)
trump is - 0.12% (9)
2015 in - 0.12% (9)
the euro - 0.12% (9)
the super - 0.11% (8)
is that - 0.11% (8)
but the - 0.11% (8)
have to - 0.11% (8)
like a - 0.11% (8)
| tags: - 0.1% (7)
the price - 0.1% (7)
the principal - 0.1% (7)
the probability - 0.1% (7)
by the - 0.1% (7)
1 comment - 0.1% (7)
the first - 0.1% (7)
that a - 0.1% (7)
american idol - 0.1% (7)
with a - 0.1% (7)
of course, - 0.1% (7)
who was - 0.1% (7)
plan b - 0.08% (6)
he will - 0.08% (6)
seek to - 0.08% (6)
if you - 0.08% (6)
from the - 0.08% (6)
with the - 0.08% (6)
the new - 0.08% (6)
fact that - 0.08% (6)
you have - 0.08% (6)
brokered convention - 0.08% (6)
might be - 0.08% (6)
or trump - 0.08% (6)
to get - 0.08% (6)
one forecaster - 0.08% (6)
the value - 0.08% (6)
art of - 0.08% (6)
the fact - 0.08% (6)
are in - 0.07% (5)
in fact - 0.07% (5)
first ballot - 0.07% (5)
they are - 0.07% (5)
wins on - 0.07% (5)
number of - 0.07% (5)
value of - 0.07% (5)
one of - 0.07% (5)
6, 2016 - 0.07% (5)
bound delegates - 0.07% (5)
way to - 0.07% (5)
when a - 0.07% (5)
jeff | - 0.07% (5)
based on - 0.07% (5)
by jeff - 0.07% (5)
suppose one - 0.07% (5)
would have - 0.07% (5)
this is - 0.07% (5)
out the - 0.07% (5)
you are - 0.07% (5)
trump presidency - 0.07% (5)
oliver hart - 0.07% (5)
the most - 0.07% (5)
chance of - 0.07% (5)
and then - 0.07% (5)
probability is - 0.07% (5)
things unsaid - 0.07% (5)
after the - 0.06% (4)
support him - 0.06% (4)
4 comments - 0.06% (4)
does not - 0.06% (4)
not to - 0.06% (4)
whether to - 0.06% (4)
so you - 0.06% (4)
the republican - 0.06% (4)
to end - 0.06% (4)
during the - 0.06% (4)
that you - 0.06% (4)
he was - 0.06% (4)
in other - 0.06% (4)
the question - 0.06% (4)
out of - 0.06% (4)
the ad - 0.06% (4)
shows on - 0.06% (4)
republican congress - 0.06% (4)
to use - 0.06% (4)
has the - 0.06% (4)
of office - 0.06% (4)
so that - 0.06% (4)
for american - 0.06% (4)
all the - 0.06% (4)
more likely - 0.06% (4)
was right? - 0.06% (4)
right? suppose - 0.06% (4)
a puzzle - 0.06% (4)
contracts are - 0.06% (4)
he has - 0.06% (4)
says the - 0.06% (4)
comment i - 0.06% (4)
should a - 0.06% (4)
their shows - 0.06% (4)
support the - 0.06% (4)
the election - 0.06% (4)
likely to - 0.06% (4)
the end - 0.06% (4)
going to - 0.06% (4)
each for - 0.06% (4)
i think - 0.06% (4)
do not - 0.06% (4)
the benefit - 0.06% (4)
will a - 0.06% (4)
it was - 0.06% (4)
will not - 0.06% (4)
try to - 0.06% (4)
because of - 0.06% (4)
that he - 0.06% (4)
that it - 0.06% (4)
in trumprediction - 0.06% (4)
office politics - 0.06% (4)
weeks ago - 0.06% (4)
a republican - 0.06% (4)
trumprediction | - 0.06% (4)
contested convention - 0.06% (4)
and no - 0.06% (4)
the best - 0.06% (4)
means that - 0.06% (4)
now the - 0.06% (4)
if there - 0.04% (3)
the banks - 0.04% (3)
strategic ambiguity - 0.04% (3)
that no - 0.04% (3)
from a - 0.04% (3)
odds of - 0.04% (3)
leaving things - 0.04% (3)
very low - 0.04% (3)
end of - 0.04% (3)
ad for - 0.04% (3)
they should - 0.04% (3)
the listener - 0.04% (3)
but cannot - 0.04% (3)
a brokered - 0.04% (3)
use the - 0.04% (3)
not support - 0.04% (3)
check and - 0.04% (3)
support trump - 0.04% (3)
will have - 0.04% (3)
are incomplete - 0.04% (3)
is very - 0.04% (3)
of advertising - 0.04% (3)
we have - 0.04% (3)
who we - 0.04% (3)
at harvard - 0.04% (3)
i would - 0.04% (3)
us that - 0.04% (3)
dump trump - 0.04% (3)
congressional republicans - 0.04% (3)
new eurozone - 0.04% (3)
you support - 0.04% (3)
as they - 0.04% (3)
and balance - 0.04% (3)
the same - 0.04% (3)
a ransom - 0.04% (3)
that they - 0.04% (3)
never see - 0.04% (3)
the three - 0.04% (3)
to run - 0.04% (3)
you would - 0.04% (3)
of new - 0.04% (3)
there are - 0.04% (3)
to make - 0.04% (3)
you will - 0.04% (3)
betting markets - 0.04% (3)
donald trump - 0.04% (3)
according to - 0.04% (3)
other words - 0.04% (3)
a trump - 0.04% (3)
the cost - 0.04% (3)
get 1237 - 0.04% (3)
if its - 0.04% (3)
price for - 0.04% (3)
my colleague - 0.04% (3)
cannot be - 0.04% (3)
other forecaster - 0.04% (3)
the number - 0.04% (3)
seen as - 0.04% (3)
has been - 0.04% (3)
 who was - 0.04% (3)
party a - 0.04% (3)
a forecast - 0.04% (3)
 the other - 0.04% (3)
the government - 0.04% (3)
at least - 0.04% (3)
use it - 0.04% (3)
cost of - 0.04% (3)
vapor mill - 0.04% (3)
16, 2016 - 0.04% (3)
to increase - 0.04% (3)
surge pricing - 0.04% (3)
the odds - 0.04% (3)
uber drivers - 0.04% (3)
of winning - 0.04% (3)
subscribe to - 0.04% (3)
the only - 0.04% (3)
do you - 0.04% (3)
he shows - 0.04% (3)
a time - 0.04% (3)
was more - 0.04% (3)
for trump. - 0.04% (3)
for congress - 0.04% (3)
probability of - 0.04% (3)
will try - 0.04% (3)
moral hazard - 0.04% (3)
the polls - 0.04% (3)
burger sales - 0.04% (3)
we can - 0.04% (3)
it would - 0.04% (3)
the main - 0.04% (3)
fraction of - 0.04% (3)
nuclear proliferation - 0.04% (3)
cheaplytweet trumprediction: - 0.04% (3)
shows that - 0.04% (3)
if trump - 0.04% (3)
more right - 0.04% (3)
the trump - 0.04% (3)
on tuesday - 0.04% (3)
with some - 0.04% (3)
and hence - 0.04% (3)
his work - 0.04% (3)
in all - 0.04% (3)
to build - 0.04% (3)
10, 2016 - 0.04% (3)
5, 2016 - 0.04% (3)
that is - 0.04% (3)
say the - 0.04% (3)
of these - 0.04% (3)
up with - 0.04% (3)
want to - 0.04% (3)
the person - 0.04% (3)
the optimal - 0.04% (3)
of congress - 0.04% (3)
trump will - 0.04% (3)
jill stein - 0.04% (3)
question of - 0.04% (3)
but trump - 0.03% (2)
figured it - 0.03% (2)
needs a - 0.03% (2)
voted for - 0.03% (2)
right now - 0.03% (2)
and john - 0.03% (2)
to help - 0.03% (2)
on tuesday’s - 0.03% (2)
three governors - 0.03% (2)
of voters - 0.03% (2)
new hampshire - 0.03% (2)
and say - 0.03% (2)
build a - 0.03% (2)
are 50% - 0.03% (2)
i finally - 0.03% (2)
are so - 0.03% (2)
this and - 0.03% (2)
on other - 0.03% (2)
cheaplytweet friday - 0.03% (2)
not clear - 0.03% (2)
to advertise - 0.03% (2)
involvement in - 0.03% (2)
was the - 0.03% (2)
useful to - 0.03% (2)
their own - 0.03% (2)
case scenario - 0.03% (2)
russia and - 0.03% (2)
anti-muslim fervor - 0.03% (2)
is useful - 0.03% (2)
greater the - 0.03% (2)
convention means - 0.03% (2)
no candidate - 0.03% (2)
convention are - 0.03% (2)
of loss - 0.03% (2)
in michigan - 0.03% (2)
the paris - 0.03% (2)
and this - 0.03% (2)
for jill - 0.03% (2)
the nominee. - 0.03% (2)
trump nomination - 0.03% (2)
them a - 0.03% (2)
in germany - 0.03% (2)
the us - 0.03% (2)
why not - 0.03% (2)
that trump - 0.03% (2)
brokered convention. - 0.03% (2)
fails to - 0.03% (2)
not sure - 0.03% (2)
politician c - 0.03% (2)
first ballot. - 0.03% (2)
would be - 0.03% (2)
not the - 0.03% (2)
republican presidential - 0.03% (2)
have been - 0.03% (2)
would never - 0.03% (2)
the voting - 0.03% (2)
either way - 0.03% (2)
measure the - 0.03% (2)
you decide - 0.03% (2)
you vote - 0.03% (2)
make sure - 0.03% (2)
up the - 0.03% (2)
a majority - 0.03% (2)
but of - 0.03% (2)
pricing and - 0.03% (2)
domestic response - 0.03% (2)
terms of - 0.03% (2)
not only - 0.03% (2)
mark will - 0.03% (2)
the rest - 0.03% (2)
blog post - 0.03% (2)
distribution of - 0.03% (2)
a better - 0.03% (2)
four years - 0.03% (2)
to stay - 0.03% (2)
appreciation of - 0.03% (2)
plan b, - 0.03% (2)
under plan - 0.03% (2)
the highest - 0.03% (2)
upon it - 0.03% (2)
his blog - 0.03% (2)
likely you - 0.03% (2)
and wine - 0.03% (2)
comment the - 0.03% (2)
an economic - 0.03% (2)
plan g - 0.03% (2)
things unsaid. - 0.03% (2)
why is - 0.03% (2)
we are - 0.03% (2)
that can - 0.03% (2)
game theory - 0.03% (2)
current events - 0.03% (2)
banana seeds - 0.03% (2)
to feed - 0.03% (2)
is still - 0.03% (2)
presidency with - 0.03% (2)
some trumpian - 0.03% (2)
appears to - 0.03% (2)
but there - 0.03% (2)
once the - 0.03% (2)
will take - 0.03% (2)
who thinks - 0.03% (2)
plan a, - 0.03% (2)
of their - 0.03% (2)
obama will - 0.03% (2)
he might - 0.03% (2)
poll aggregators - 0.03% (2)
are highly - 0.03% (2)
course, it - 0.03% (2)
tags: teaching - 0.03% (2)
the road - 0.03% (2)
drivers on - 0.03% (2)
most likely - 0.03% (2)
outcome for - 0.03% (2)
a driver - 0.03% (2)
presidency is - 0.03% (2)
tried to - 0.03% (2)
it out - 0.03% (2)
purple pricing - 0.03% (2)
dave edmunds - 0.03% (2)
comment my - 0.03% (2)
cheaplytweet what - 0.03% (2)
candidate for - 0.03% (2)
an incentive - 0.03% (2)
a price - 0.03% (2)
cave in - 0.03% (2)
would also - 0.03% (2)
was not - 0.03% (2)
plans to - 0.03% (2)
are likely - 0.03% (2)
a theory - 0.03% (2)
the banks. - 0.03% (2)
rust belt - 0.03% (2)
off the - 0.03% (2)
decryption key. - 0.03% (2)
and you - 0.03% (2)
because the - 0.03% (2)
belt states. - 0.03% (2)
back and - 0.03% (2)
price changes - 0.03% (2)
may not - 0.03% (2)
the decryption - 0.03% (2)
on it. - 0.03% (2)
interesting example - 0.03% (2)
them to - 0.03% (2)
a more - 0.03% (2)
ransom for - 0.03% (2)
to look - 0.03% (2)
the mine - 0.03% (2)
april 6, - 0.03% (2)
an asset - 0.03% (2)
finally figured - 0.03% (2)
that in - 0.03% (2)
a side - 0.03% (2)
to pick - 0.03% (2)
to perform - 0.03% (2)
state is - 0.03% (2)
and to - 0.03% (2)
more plausible - 0.03% (2)
your state - 0.03% (2)
pick a - 0.03% (2)
comments suppose - 0.03% (2)
to backfire - 0.03% (2)
is going - 0.03% (2)
looking after - 0.03% (2)
contributions to - 0.03% (2)
output is - 0.03% (2)
saying they - 0.03% (2)
fence by - 0.03% (2)
attack anyone - 0.03% (2)
a blog - 0.03% (2)
work with - 0.03% (2)
support them - 0.03% (2)
 trump wins. - 0.03% (2)
many forecasters - 0.03% (2)
wins.  who - 0.03% (2)
forecast of - 0.03% (2)
principal-agent model - 0.03% (2)
action that - 0.03% (2)
settles on - 0.03% (2)
probability estimates - 0.03% (2)
the action - 0.03% (2)
to align - 0.03% (2)
other hand, - 0.03% (2)
be included - 0.03% (2)
variables should - 0.03% (2)
revised to - 0.03% (2)
in july - 0.03% (2)
said q - 0.03% (2)
a performance - 0.03% (2)
fact wins, - 0.03% (2)
trump in - 0.03% (2)
i will - 0.03% (2)
his career - 0.03% (2)
it with - 0.03% (2)
nobel prize - 0.03% (2)
the maskin-tirole - 0.03% (2)
to work - 0.03% (2)
was an - 0.03% (2)
at that - 0.03% (2)
assistant professor - 0.03% (2)
harvard and - 0.03% (2)
roger myerson - 0.03% (2)
assets and - 0.03% (2)
maskin-tirole critique. - 0.03% (2)
he should - 0.03% (2)
he can - 0.03% (2)
theory in - 0.03% (2)
investment is - 0.03% (2)
benefit of - 0.03% (2)
property rights. - 0.03% (2)
agent an - 0.03% (2)
of property - 0.03% (2)
i wrote - 0.03% (2)
when he - 0.03% (2)
his base - 0.03% (2)
will say - 0.03% (2)
and mccain - 0.03% (2)
to endorse - 0.03% (2)
with him - 0.03% (2)
balance a - 0.03% (2)
a vote - 0.03% (2)
the base - 0.03% (2)
this way - 0.03% (2)
and will - 0.03% (2)
to prove - 0.03% (2)
on. so, - 0.03% (2)
to check - 0.03% (2)
for you - 0.03% (2)
but not - 0.03% (2)
these papers - 0.03% (2)
and have - 0.03% (2)
election is - 0.03% (2)
of bengt holmström - 0.03% (2)
comment trump - 0.03% (2)
for every - 0.03% (2)
in art - 0.03% (2)
think i - 0.03% (2)
your own - 0.03% (2)
that would - 0.03% (2)
30 second - 0.03% (2)
marginal cost. - 0.03% (2)
and set - 0.03% (2)
network has - 0.03% (2)
 if it - 0.03% (2)
how do - 0.03% (2)
probabilistic forecast - 0.03% (2)
run an - 0.03% (2)
price is - 0.03% (2)
network that - 0.03% (2)
over time. - 0.03% (2)
the price. - 0.03% (2)
on monday - 0.03% (2)
on wednesday - 0.03% (2)
are not - 0.03% (2)
when you - 0.03% (2)
network chooses - 0.03% (2)
is more - 0.03% (2)
you the - 0.03% (2)
incentive to - 0.03% (2)
cheaplytweet i - 0.03% (2)
so there - 0.03% (2)
the outcome - 0.03% (2)
they will - 0.03% (2)
on another - 0.03% (2)
at some - 0.03% (2)
you can - 0.03% (2)
have an - 0.03% (2)
and even - 0.03% (2)
its own - 0.03% (2)
is zero - 0.03% (2)
that time - 0.03% (2)
the marginal - 0.03% (2)
the network - 0.03% (2)
time for - 0.03% (2)
value to - 0.03% (2)
compares the - 0.03% (2)
broadcast it - 0.03% (2)
other networks. - 0.03% (2)
you never - 0.03% (2)
hart and - 0.03% (2)
him in - 0.03% (2)
monday night - 0.03% (2)
the agent’s - 0.03% (2)
as pro-trump - 0.03% (2)
being seen - 0.03% (2)
case, the - 0.03% (2)
then, trump - 0.03% (2)
leads to - 0.03% (2)
of his - 0.03% (2)
can do - 0.03% (2)
agent does - 0.03% (2)
no money - 0.03% (2)
support him. - 0.03% (2)
wednesday morning - 0.03% (2)
which forecaster - 0.03% (2)
and bengt - 0.03% (2)
looking and - 0.03% (2)
not let - 0.03% (2)
in cheek, - 0.03% (2)
lie and - 0.03% (2)
with an - 0.03% (2)
a puzzle. - 0.03% (2)
say, abc - 0.03% (2)
at all - 0.03% (2)
you don’t - 0.03% (2)
bowl broadcast. - 0.03% (2)
idol during - 0.03% (2)
coming up - 0.03% (2)
and it - 0.03% (2)
comes up - 0.03% (2)
 of course - 0.03% (2)
in which, - 0.03% (2)
and trump’s - 0.03% (2)
those years - 0.03% (2)
idol. but - 0.03% (2)
like american - 0.03% (2)
their shows, - 0.03% (2)
advertise for - 0.03% (2)
bowl they - 0.03% (2)
fox broadcasts - 0.03% (2)
his support - 0.03% (2)
cheap talk - 0.03% (2)
sandeep baliga | - 0.34% (25)
by sandeep baliga - 0.34% (25)
| by sandeep - 0.34% (25)
in uncategorized | - 0.3% (22)
uncategorized | by - 0.22% (16)
2016 in uncategorized - 0.19% (14)
| leave a - 0.19% (14)
leave a comment - 0.19% (14)
baliga | leave - 0.19% (14)
2015 in uncategorized - 0.11% (8)
the super bowl - 0.11% (8)
baliga | 1 - 0.1% (7)
| 1 comment - 0.1% (7)
there is a - 0.1% (7)
on the first - 0.08% (6)
uncategorized | tags: - 0.08% (6)
wins on the - 0.07% (5)
by jeff | - 0.07% (5)
| by jeff - 0.07% (5)
the first ballot - 0.07% (5)
suppose one forecaster - 0.07% (5)
the fact that - 0.07% (5)
2016 in trumprediction - 0.06% (4)
says the probability - 0.06% (4)
trumprediction | by - 0.06% (4)
| 4 comments - 0.06% (4)
has the super - 0.06% (4)
you have to - 0.06% (4)
for american idol - 0.06% (4)
in trumprediction | - 0.06% (4)
art of office - 0.06% (4)
who was right? - 0.06% (4)
was right? suppose - 0.06% (4)
the probability is - 0.04% (3)
odds of a - 0.04% (3)
the odds of - 0.04% (3)
a republican congress - 0.04% (3)
vote for the - 0.04% (3)
check and balance - 0.04% (3)
contracts are incomplete - 0.04% (3)
5, 2016 in - 0.04% (3)
trump is the - 0.04% (3)
| 2 comments - 0.04% (3)
is that the - 0.04% (3)
the question of - 0.04% (3)
10, 2016 in - 0.04% (3)
of office politics, - 0.04% (3)
the end of - 0.04% (3)
will try to - 0.04% (3)
 who was right? - 0.04% (3)
the new eurozone - 0.04% (3)
of the euro - 0.04% (3)
of the ad - 0.04% (3)
right? suppose one - 0.04% (3)
ad for american - 0.03% (2)
never see an - 0.03% (2)
who we are - 0.03% (2)
finally figured it - 0.03% (2)
bowl you will - 0.03% (2)
which, say, abc - 0.03% (2)
those years in - 0.03% (2)
american idol. but - 0.03% (2)
their shows, like - 0.03% (2)
they advertise for - 0.03% (2)
when fox broadcasts - 0.03% (2)
i think i - 0.03% (2)
that the value - 0.03% (2)
tells us that - 0.03% (2)
value of advertising - 0.03% (2)
us that the - 0.03% (2)
fact that you - 0.03% (2)
broadcast it compares - 0.03% (2)
idol during the - 0.03% (2)
to get 1237 - 0.03% (2)
super bowl broadcast. - 0.03% (2)
seek to provoke - 0.03% (2)
the rest of - 0.03% (2)
this is a - 0.03% (2)
leave things unsaid - 0.03% (2)
the price changes - 0.03% (2)
the decryption key. - 0.03% (2)
comment i was - 0.03% (2)
drivers on the - 0.03% (2)
| tags: teaching - 0.03% (2)
by dave edmunds - 0.03% (2)
3, 2015 in - 0.03% (2)
is going to - 0.03% (2)
involvement in syria - 0.03% (2)
the three governors - 0.03% (2)
on other networks. - 0.03% (2)
the greater the - 0.03% (2)
if there are - 0.03% (2)
go to politician - 0.03% (2)
to make sure - 0.03% (2)
bound delegates but - 0.03% (2)
bowl broadcast it - 0.03% (2)
a contested convention - 0.03% (2)
no brokered convention - 0.03% (2)
chance of winning - 0.03% (2)
of a trump - 0.03% (2)
means that no - 0.03% (2)
convention means that - 0.03% (2)
think i finally - 0.03% (2)
compares the value - 0.03% (2)
7, 2016 in - 0.03% (2)
to run an - 0.03% (2)
on wednesday morning - 0.03% (2)
fence by saying - 0.03% (2)
anyone on the - 0.03% (2)
a vote for - 0.03% (2)
1 comment trump - 0.03% (2)
of the maskin-tirole - 0.03% (2)
at harvard and - 0.03% (2)
but there is - 0.03% (2)
can use it - 0.03% (2)
the agent an - 0.03% (2)
principal might be - 0.03% (2)
an assistant professor - 0.03% (2)
when he was - 0.03% (2)
work on the - 0.03% (2)
oliver hart and - 0.03% (2)
on monday night - 0.03% (2)
the fence by - 0.03% (2)
will be a - 0.03% (2)
was more right - 0.03% (2)
an incentive to - 0.03% (2)
so there is - 0.03% (2)
would have to - 0.03% (2)
most likely outcome - 0.03% (2)
talk cheaplytweet friday - 0.03% (2)
rust belt states. - 0.03% (2)
are highly correlated - 0.03% (2)
a comment the - 0.03% (2)
food and wine - 0.03% (2)
on the other - 0.03% (2)
that it will - 0.03% (2)
for the trump - 0.03% (2)
attack anyone on - 0.03% (2)
to pick a - 0.03% (2)
network chooses whether - 0.03% (2)
subscribe to feed - 0.03% (2)
is the cost - 0.03% (2)
a price for - 0.03% (2)
their shows on - 0.03% (2)
that you never - 0.03% (2)
during the super - 0.03% (2)
see an ad - 0.03% (2)
you will never - 0.03% (2)
say, abc has - 0.03% (2)
years in which, - 0.03% (2)
idol. but those - 0.03% (2)
shows, like american - 0.03% (2)
advertise for their - 0.03% (2)
super bowl they - 0.03% (2)
fox broadcasts the - 0.03% (2)
say the agent - 0.03% (2)
21, 2016 in - 0.03% (2)
then, trump should - 0.03% (2)
seen as pro-trump - 0.03% (2)
in art of - 0.03% (2)
in cheek, vapor - 0.03% (2)
2016 in art - 0.03% (2)
 trump wins.  who - 0.03% (2)
settles on a - 0.03% (2)
a forecast of - 0.03% (2)
wins.  who was - 0.03% (2)
p in october. - 0.03% (2)
revised to p - 0.03% (2)
in fact wins, - 0.03% (2)
the other says - 0.03% (2)
forecaster says the - 0.03% (2)
things that can - 0.03% (2)

Here you can find chart of all your popular one, two and three word phrases. Google and others search engines means your page is about words you use frequently.

Copyright © 2015-2016 hupso.pl. All rights reserved. FB | +G | Twitter

Hupso.pl jest serwisem internetowym, w którym jednym kliknieciem możesz szybko i łatwo sprawdź stronę www pod kątem SEO. Oferujemy darmowe pozycjonowanie stron internetowych oraz wycena domen i stron internetowych. Prowadzimy ranking polskich stron internetowych oraz ranking stron alexa.