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bespoke brunch reads: 2/19/17
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the closer 2/17/17 – end of week charts
etf trends: fixed income, currencies, and commodities – 2/17/17
leading/coincident indicator rises in january
one down, 47 (or 95) left to go
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with $15 left in the bank, a baby boomer makes peace with less by timothy w. martin (wsj)
boomers stuck in a circular unfunded liability they will never break out of… by deux et vingt (macro ramblings from the ‘burbs)
hot, sticky, & sweet by keaton lamle (bitter southerner)
how serious is the threat to global financial stability from a border-adjustment tax? by brad setser (council on foreign relations)
about face: a history of america’s curious relationship with china, from nixon to clinton by james h. mann (foreign affairs)
blackstone ceo throws himself ‘the party of the century’ by emily smith (page six)
howard stern sued for broadcasting woman’s conversation with irs by eriq gardner (the hollywood reporter)
how resilient is the u.s. housing market now? by andreas fuster, eilidh geddes, benedict guttman-kenney, and andrew haughwout (ny fed liberty street economics)
mortgage rates monday, feb. 13: higher; lower-credit borrowers discouraged by deborah kearns (nerdwallet)
are gains in black homeownership history? by laurie goodman, jun zhu, and rolf pendall (urban institute)
dopamine labs slings tools to boost and reduce app addiction by jonathan shieber (techcrunch)
defaults slash returns for online loan investors by peter rudegeair (wsj)
now facebook wants to be your weather app by michael grothus (fast company)
elon musk is really boring by max chafkin (bloomberg)
rob arnott says you’ll be sorry for ignoring smart beta warnings by dani burger (bloomberg)
oil producers promised output cuts. here’s the reality. by brian wingfield, samuel dodge and hayley warren (bloomberg)
it’s a moment of truth for u.s. companies by oliver renick (bloomberg)
u.s. flight cancellations, baggage problems fall to historic lows by david shepardson (reuters)
the rise and fall of a k street renegade by brody mullins (wsj)
le pen is on course to be france’s next president, fund manager says from ai analysis by everett rosenfeld and nyshka chandran (cnbc)
gop may cap insurance tax break as aca repeal bill nears by anna edney, billy house and arit john (bloomberg)
stephen miller is a ‘true believer’ behind core trump policies by glenn thrush and jennifer steinhauer (nyt)
q&a: melinda gates on the world’s missing data about women by megan murphy (bloomberg)
closer
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with $15 left in the bank, a baby boomer makes peace with less by timothy w. martin (wsj)
boomers stuck in a circular unfunded liability they will never break out of… by deux et vingt (macro ramblings from the ‘burbs)
hot, sticky, & sweet by keaton lamle (bitter southerner)
how serious is the threat to global financial stability from a border-adjustment tax? by brad setser (council on foreign relations)
about face: a history of america’s curious relationship with china, from nixon to clinton by james h. mann (foreign affairs)
blackstone ceo throws himself ‘the party of the century’ by emily smith (page six)
howard stern sued for broadcasting woman’s conversation with irs by eriq gardner (the hollywood reporter)
how resilient is the u.s. housing market now? by andreas fuster, eilidh geddes, benedict guttman-kenney, and andrew haughwout (ny fed liberty street economics)
mortgage rates monday, feb. 13: higher; lower-credit borrowers discouraged by deborah kearns (nerdwallet)
are gains in black homeownership history? by laurie goodman, jun zhu, and rolf pendall (urban institute)
dopamine labs slings tools to boost and reduce app addiction by jonathan shieber (techcrunch)
defaults slash returns for online loan investors by peter rudegeair (wsj)
now facebook wants to be your weather app by michael grothus (fast company)
elon musk is really boring by max chafkin (bloomberg)
rob arnott says you’ll be sorry for ignoring smart beta warnings by dani burger (bloomberg)
oil producers promised output cuts. here’s the reality. by brian wingfield, samuel dodge and hayley warren (bloomberg)
it’s a moment of truth for u.s. companies by oliver renick (bloomberg)
u.s. flight cancellations, baggage problems fall to historic lows by david shepardson (reuters)
the rise and fall of a k street renegade by brody mullins (wsj)
le pen is on course to be france’s next president, fund manager says from ai analysis by everett rosenfeld and nyshka chandran (cnbc)
gop may cap insurance tax break as aca repeal bill nears by anna edney, billy house and arit john (bloomberg)
stephen miller is a ‘true believer’ behind core trump policies by glenn thrush and jennifer steinhauer (nyt)
q&a: melinda gates on the world’s missing data about women by megan murphy (bloomberg)
closer
bespoke market timing model
the closer
etf trends
etf trends
see bespoke’s full daily etf trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
closer
the closer
i
with $15 left in the bank, a baby boomer makes peace with less by timothy w. martin (wsj)
boomers stuck in a circular unfunded liability they will never break out of… by deux et vingt (macro ramblings from the ‘burbs)
hot, sticky, & sweet by keaton lamle (bitter southerner)
how serious is the threat to global financial stability from a border-adjustment tax? by brad setser (council on foreign relations)
about face: a history of america’s curious relationship with china, from nixon to clinton by james h. mann (foreign affairs)
blackstone ceo throws himself ‘the party of the century’ by emily smith (page six)
howard stern sued for broadcasting woman’s conversation with irs by eriq gardner (the hollywood reporter)
how resilient is the u.s. housing market now? by andreas fuster, eilidh geddes, benedict guttman-kenney, and andrew haughwout (ny fed liberty street economics)
mortgage rates monday, feb. 13: higher; lower-credit borrowers discouraged by deborah kearns (nerdwallet)
are gains in black homeownership history? by laurie goodman, jun zhu, and rolf pendall (urban institute)
dopamine labs slings tools to boost and reduce app addiction by jonathan shieber (techcrunch)
defaults slash returns for online loan investors by peter rudegeair (wsj)
now facebook wants to be your weather app by michael grothus (fast company)
elon musk is really boring by max chafkin (bloomberg)
rob arnott says you’ll be sorry for ignoring smart beta warnings by dani burger (bloomberg)
oil producers promised output cuts. here’s the reality. by brian wingfield, samuel dodge and hayley warren (bloomberg)
it’s a moment of truth for u.s. companies by oliver renick (bloomberg)
u.s. flight cancellations, baggage problems fall to historic lows by david shepardson (reuters)
the rise and fall of a k street renegade by brody mullins (wsj)
le pen is on course to be france’s next president, fund manager says from ai analysis by everett rosenfeld and nyshka chandran (cnbc)
gop may cap insurance tax break as aca repeal bill nears by anna edney, billy house and arit john (bloomberg)
stephen miller is a ‘true believer’ behind core trump policies by glenn thrush and jennifer steinhauer (nyt)
q&a: melinda gates on the world’s missing data about women by megan murphy (bloomberg)
closer
bespoke market timing model
the closer
etf trends
etf trends
see bespoke’s full daily etf trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
closer
the closer
em with $15 left in the bank, a baby boomer makes peace with less by timothy w. martin (wsj)
boomers stuck in a circular unfunded liability they will never break out of… by deux et vingt (macro ramblings from the ‘burbs)
hot, sticky, & sweet by keaton lamle (bitter southerner)
how serious is the threat to global financial stability from a border-adjustment tax? by brad setser (council on foreign relations)
about face: a history of america’s curious relationship with china, from nixon to clinton by james h. mann (foreign affairs)
blackstone ceo throws himself ‘the party of the century’ by emily smith (page six)
howard stern sued for broadcasting woman’s conversation with irs by eriq gardner (the hollywood reporter)
how resilient is the u.s. housing market now? by andreas fuster, eilidh geddes, benedict guttman-kenney, and andrew haughwout (ny fed liberty street economics)
mortgage rates monday, feb. 13: higher; lower-credit borrowers discouraged by deborah kearns (nerdwallet)
are gains in black homeownership history? by laurie goodman, jun zhu, and rolf pendall (urban institute)
dopamine labs slings tools to boost and reduce app addiction by jonathan shieber (techcrunch)
defaults slash returns for online loan investors by peter rudegeair (wsj)
now facebook wants to be your weather app by michael grothus (fast company)
elon musk is really boring by max chafkin (bloomberg)
rob arnott says you’ll be sorry for ignoring smart beta warnings by dani burger (bloomberg)
oil producers promised output cuts. here’s the reality. by brian wingfield, samuel dodge and hayley warren (bloomberg)
it’s a moment of truth for u.s. companies by oliver renick (bloomberg)
u.s. flight cancellations, baggage problems fall to historic lows by david shepardson (reuters)
the rise and fall of a k street renegade by brody mullins (wsj)
le pen is on course to be france’s next president, fund manager says from ai analysis by everett rosenfeld and nyshka chandran (cnbc)
gop may cap insurance tax break as aca repeal bill nears by anna edney, billy house and arit john (bloomberg)
stephen miller is a ‘true believer’ behind core trump policies by glenn thrush and jennifer steinhauer (nyt)
q&a: melinda gates on the world’s missing data about women by megan murphy (bloomberg)
closer
bespoke market timing model
the closer
etf trends
etf trends
see bespoke’s full daily etf trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  click here to sign up with just your name and email address.
closer
the closer
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home products pricing free content about wealth management log in select page bespoke brunch reads: 2/19/17 feb 19, 2017 welcome to bespoke brunch reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week.  the links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well.  we hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week. baby boomers with $15 left in the bank, a baby boomer makes peace with less by timothy w. martin (wsj) the aging boomer cohort is no stranger to debt, a financial strategy which leads many of those later in life to cut it close during times of economic stress. [link; paywall] boomers stuck in a circular unfunded liability they will never break out of… by deux et vingt (macro ramblings from the ‘burbs) are low interest rates and high stock prices all the same trade, driven by a massive cohort that is desperately trying to save enough for long retirements? [link] food hot, sticky, & sweet by keaton lamle (bitter southerner) the culture and iconic status of fried dough with a sweet topping in across the south. [link] international relations how serious is the threat to global financial stability from a border-adjustment tax? by brad setser (council on foreign relations) regardless of its impact on the domestic economy (which is hotly debated as senators start to line up against the house’s preferred tax reform proposal), a bat could have significant repercussions across the global economy purely thanks to its financial markets effects. [link] about face: a history of america’s curious relationship with china, from nixon to clinton by james h. mann (foreign affairs) only nixon could go to china, and this week marked the anniversary of that remarkable pivot in us foreign policy during the cold war. [link] strange news blackstone ceo throws himself ‘the party of the century’ by emily smith (page six) camels, mongolian greeters (???), a custom-built temple, gwen stefani, and the celebration of stephen schwarzman’s birthday party in florida. [link] howard stern sued for broadcasting woman’s conversation with irs by eriq gardner (the hollywood reporter) does broadcasting 45 minutes of an irs agent’s call with a taxpayer make for good radio? we doubt it but that didn’t stop howard stern from airing it in 2015 and he’s now getting sued. [link; auto-playing video] real estate: the good, the bad, and the ugly how resilient is the u.s. housing market now? by andreas fuster, eilidh geddes, benedict guttman-kenney, and andrew haughwout (ny fed liberty street economics) a comprehensive review of the fundamentals of the housing sector, from ltvs to delinquency at both a national and regional level. [link] mortgage rates monday, feb. 13: higher; lower-credit borrowers discouraged by deborah kearns (nerdwallet) much of the post-crisis improvement in mortgage applicant fico scores is due to low-score borrowers not bothering to apply for loans in the first place. [link] are gains in black homeownership history? by laurie goodman, jun zhu, and rolf pendall (urban institute) after years of improvement in the lower rate of homeownership amongst blacks, gains started to reverse in the early 1990s and have dramatically underperformed other cohorts. [link] appconomy dopamine labs slings tools to boost and reduce app addiction by jonathan shieber (techcrunch) a new start up aims to use neuroscience to offer other app developers the key to hooking users, while trying to prevent pr disaster by also offering tools to reduce appdiction. [link] defaults slash returns for online loan investors by peter rudegeair (wsj) rising defaults and interest rate increases are dragging down performance for the investment funds that feed capital into many online platform lending players. [link; paywall] now facebook wants to be your weather app by michael grothus (fast company) as if we didn’t spend enough time collectively on facebook already… [link] elon musk is really boring by max chafkin (bloomberg) a traffic jam led elon musk to just start digging, thus reinventing an entirely not new form of transportation and earning himself a blooomberg businessweek cover. [link] investing rob arnott says you’ll be sorry for ignoring smart beta warnings by dani burger (bloomberg) more sturm und drang about the risks of smart beta, which can lead to concentrations and correlation risk for investors. [link] moments of truth oil producers promised output cuts. here’s the reality. by brian wingfield, samuel dodge and hayley warren (bloomberg) some nice charts on the share of proposed cuts that have actually been met by both opec and non-opec nations following last fall’s deal. [link] it’s a moment of truth for u.s. companies by oliver renick (bloomberg) with sentiment indices surging, is now the time corporate capex will finally start to accelerate? [link; auto-playing video] congrats! u.s. flight cancellations, baggage problems fall to historic lows by david shepardson (reuters) in a rare bit of good news, airlines cancelled 1.17% of flights (a new record) and mishandled only 2.7 pieces of baggage per 1000 passengers. [link] politics the rise and fall of a k street renegade by brody mullins (wsj) the massive lobbying success, free-wheeling spending, and tragic downfall of a man that re-wrote the rules for corporations’ efforts to grab washington’s attention. [link; registration required] le pen is on course to be france’s next president, fund manager says from ai analysis by everett rosenfeld and nyshka chandran (cnbc) le pen’s poll numbers haven’t moved much but betting markets and some sort of “ai” (likely code for a series of linear regressions) are moving much more in her favor. [link; auto-playing video] gop may cap insurance tax break as aca repeal bill nears by anna edney, billy house and arit john (bloomberg) one of the most interesting possible policy options we’ve seen so far around aca repeal is the concept of corporate deductions on health care benefits, a source of significant distortion in us health care markets. [link; auto-playing video] stephen miller is a ‘true believer’ behind core trump policies by glenn thrush and jennifer steinhauer (nyt) a profile of one of trump’s closest – and most extreme – advisors. [link; soft paywall] women q&a: melinda gates on the world’s missing data about women by megan murphy (bloomberg) an interview with one of the world’s biggest philanthropists where she focusses on the challenges of improving outcomes for women when there is so little data to assess the lay of the land. also an interesting look at the bill and melinda gates foundation more broadly. [link; auto-playing video] have a great sunday! the bespoke report — 2/17/17 feb 17, 2017 the screen below is one of many graphics included in our just-published bespoke report newsletter (included weekly with all of our membership packages).  it shows the recent performance of various asset classes using our key etf matrix.  note that the mexico etf (eww) is up more than any etf in the entire matrix since trump’s inauguration on january 20th! if you’d like to read our thoughts on recent performance plus the rest of this week’s bespoke report newsletter, take advantage of our one-month bespoke premium free trial offer that includes our 2017 outlook report.  sign up now at this page. have a great weekend! the closer 2/17/17 – end of week charts feb 17, 2017 looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  in tonight’s closer sent to bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly commitment of traders report from the cftc, and provide our normal nightly update on etf performance, volume and price movers, and the bespoke market timing model. the closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks! click here to start your no-obligation free bespoke research trial now! etf trends: fixed income, currencies, and commodities – 2/17/17 feb 17, 2017 israel continues to outperform along with solar, bioetch, and pharma. turkey, the netherlands, and brazil also outperformed. on the losing side of the slate, natural gas prices have continue to drag lower while energy-related equities plunge. russia also suffered a painful week along with indonesia and mexico. bespoke provides bespoke premium and bespoke institutional members with a daily etf trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed etfs across all asset classes.  if you’re an etf investor, this daily report is perfect.  sign up below to access today’s etf trends report. see bespoke’s full daily etf trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  click here to sign up with just your name and email address. leading/coincident indicator rises in january feb 17, 2017 in january, the conference board’s leading indicator for the us economy rose 0.6% mom versus 0.5% mom expected.  while the absolute change in the leading indicator was certainly positive, we prefer to look at how the leading indicator performs relative to the coincident indicator index.  the level of this reading isn’t particularly important but its direction is a very good advance warning of approaching recessions.  as shown in the chart below, the ratio between the leading and coincident indicators tends to drop sharply immediately before and during a recession.  over the last few months, the ratio has started to turn upwards again after a period of stagnation since the post-recession high print of 1.098 in june 2015.  a new high print, which looks quite likely after the 1.097 level printed this month, would be an indicator that recession isn’t likely in the near term.  with a number of other pieces of economic data suggesting a ramp up in business activity and consumer spending, the leading/coincident indicator ratio adds to the case that a recession in us economic activity is still nowhere close. one down, 47 (or 95) left to go feb 17, 2017 given monday’s holiday for president’s day, today’s close will mark the end of president trump’s first month in terms of stock market returns. based on where the djia is currently trading, it was a very good first month.  as shown in the table below, the djia has gained nearly 4% during president trump’s first month in office.  somewhat surprisingly, relative to the 19 other presidents that have assumed office since 1900, the djia’s return during trump’s first month ranks as number six behind johnson, coolidge, taft, fdr, and bush i.  perhaps the most surprising performance of the presidents shown is johnson and coolidge, who saw gains of 7.11% and 5.69%, respectively.  the first month of johnson’s tenure was the month that followed the assassination of a sitting us president (jfk), while coolidge’s first month followed the sudden death of another sitting president (harding).  apparently, the stock market’s ability to shake off shocking political news isn’t just a phenomenon confined to the last 12 months. get free access to all of bespoke’s research for 14 days (no credit card necessary) the first 100 days: an accessible rally feb 17, 2017 it has now been 100 days since president trump was elected last november and contrasting the headlines and appearance of turmoil in washington, us equities have seen one of the steadiest and strongest rallies for a newly elected president on record.  since election day last november, the s&p 500 tracking etf (spy) is up just under 10%, but what is really interesting about the rally is where the gains have taken place.  the chart below breaks down the returns of spy between market hours (9:30 am to 4:00 pm) and overnight returns (4:00 pm through the 9:30 opening bell).  often, when you see a big market rally, a lot of the gains come from ‘gaps’ where overnight news or events cause the market to open significantly higher, and unless you were long overnight, you miss out on the move. what is notable about the rally since the election is that the majority of the gains have come during market hours.  as shown in the chart, the cumulative gain of spy during market hours since election day has been a gain of 6.74%.  in other words, if you bought at the open and sold at the close every day, you would be up 6.74% and eliminated any possible risk of holding equities overnight.  conversely, if you bought at the close and sold at the open every day since the election, your cumulative gain would be 2.7%, which is less than half of the gain from being long during the trading day.  in addition to being one of the strongest and steadiest rallies following the election of a newly elected president, the rally of the last 100 days has also been one of the most accessible too! get free access to all of bespoke’s research for 14 days (no credit card necessary) bespoke morning lineup feb 17, 2017 highlights s&p 500 futures -29 bps realized correlation still very low (overview) singapore owns overnight headlines (asia) se cpi, uk retail sales, ez current account (europe) brazilian balance of payment, us data (americas) russell 1000 new 52-week highs russell 1000 new 52-week lows bespoke’s morning lineup is the top pre-market report on wall street.  we cover everything you need to know to get your trading day started, including international market moves and events, post-market and pre-market earnings news, upgrades and downgrades, dividends and splits, economic indicators and estimates, big stock movers, market internals and much more.  it’s all presented in the original and concise format that bespoke is known for so you can digest lots of information quickly and efficiently. see all of today’s morning lineup by starting a free trial to bespoke’s paid research.  no credit card is required. the closer — 44 charts & 2000 words — 2/16/17 feb 16, 2017 log-in here if you’re a member with access to the closer. looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  in tonight’s closer sent to bespoke institutional clients, we dissect a massive print from the philly fed’s business outlook survey, chart up quarterly consumer credit data compiled by the new york fed, break down monthly residential construction data from the us census, and take a look at quarterly housing starts by type of structure. the closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can see it and everything else bespoke publishes by starting a no-obligation 14-day free trial to our research! bespoke’s sector snapshot — 2/16/17 feb 16, 2017 we’ve just released our weekly sector snapshot report (see a sample here) for bespoke premium and bespoke institutional members.  please log-in here to view the report if you’re already a member.  if you’re not yet a subscriber and would like to see the report, please start a 14-day trial to bespoke premium now. below is one of the many charts included in this week’s sector snapshot, which highlights our trading range screen for the s&p 500 and ten sectors.  the black vertical “n” line represents each sector’s 50-day moving average, and as shown, all but two sectors are currently above their 50-days.  the s&p 500 and six sectors are now trading in extreme overbought territory. to see our full sector snapshot with additional commentary plus six pages of charts that include analysis of valuations, breadth, technicals, and relative strength, start a 14-day free trial to our bespoke premium package now.  here’s a breakdown of the products you’ll receive. « older entries categoriescategories select category annual outlook archives b.i.g. tips bespoke 50 bespoke briefs bespoke dividend income portfolio bespoke model etf portfolio bespoke model portfolio chart of the day earnings calendar earnings estimate revisions earnings season triple plays economic indicators etf cheat sheets etf trends fixed income weekly idea generator industry insights monthly headlines morning lineup podcasts pulse sector snapshot short interest report stock scores stock seasonality the bespoke report the closer think b.i.g. blog top stocks under $10 upgrades/downgrades weekly chart book archives archives select month february 2017 january 2017 december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 march 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 august 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 october 2008 september 2008 august 2008 july 2008 june 2008 may 2008 april 2008 march 2008 february 2008 january 2008 december 2007 november 2007 october 2007 september 2007 august 2007 july 2007 june 2007 may 2007 latest tweets tweets by @bespokeinvest twitter copyright © 2017 bespoke investment group, llc. all rights reserved. | legal


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