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the baseline scenario what happened to the global economy and what we can do about it skip to content about 13 bankers white house burning read more follow us ← older posts conflicts and corruption posted on january 12, 2017 by james kwak | 21 comments by james kwak to be clear, the idea that donald trump will be president while he or his children effectively own a company that does business all over the world is preposterous. (quick primer on trust law: a trust is managed its trustees for the benefit of its beneficiaries. in this case, we know the trustees include two of trump’s children, and the beneficiary is likely to be either trump or his children.) if people, companies, and foreign governments want to pay bribes to the president of the united states, they need only give favorable deals to the trump organization. an in any of his official actions, the president will have the temptation to do what’s right for his company, not for the country. the point i wanted to make in my atlantic column today, however, is that this is just the most obvious and egregious example of the larger problem of corruption: government officials acting in the interests of themselves, their family and friends, or their business associates. the example i focus on is estate tax repeal, because that one thing alone would be worth more than $1 billion to the trump family. it’s a classic example of a president doing what’s in his own personal interests and the interests of his core constituency of gazillionaires, while pretending it’s for the good of the country. betsy devos is another great example, perfectly illustrated by this graphic from the afl-cio: the way american politics works is that people and organizations with money—today, largely billionaire families—invest in politicians and demand policies that favor their private interests. donald trump just eliminated the middlemen—not only winning the presidency, but also inviting fellow billionaires like devos into his cabinet. this is why, beyond the ongoing catastrophe that is the trump presidency (which technically hasn’t even started yet), we still need to fix our democracy, so everyone has an equal say in our government. for more, see the full article in the atlantic. 21 comments posted in op-ed tagged betsy devos, corruption, donald trump, estate tax, politics economism typo contest posted on january 10, 2017 by james kwak | 4 comments by james kwak today, you may be getting your copy of economism: bad economics and the rise of inequality in the mail. or you may even be able to buy it in a bookstore. but before you crack it open, i want to tell you something. i hate typos. i try to read each of my book manuscripts carefully before submitting them. i hire my own line editor to go through my writing for grammatical and stylistic errors. the publisher then does a copy edit. when i get the “galleys” back from the publisher, i hire my own proofreaders to scour them again for mistakes. but inevitably typos sneak into the published books. here’s one from 13 bankers: (that should be “economic policy,” in case you’re wondering.) furthermore, i am almost incapable of reading anything that i’ve written before. it’s just too boring when you already know what the next sentence is going to say; at best i can skim. so it’s very hard for me to catch mistakes in anything that i’ve published. out of sympathy to my fellow writers, i often circle typos when i find them in books that i am reading. sometimes i even email the author out of the blue with a list of mistakes, if there is still time to fix them in the paperback version. so, before you start reading, i’d like you to know about the economism typo contest. if you are the first person to find and tell me about a mistake, i will send you a limited edition, spiral-bound, 5×8 notebook with the jacket cover of economism on the front (signed on the inside if you like). or, if you prefer, i will pay you ten dollars in cash money. the detailed rules and instructions for submitting mistakes are over at the version of this post over at medium. thanks for your help. 4 comments posted in books tagged economism, typos, writing economism and the future of the democratic party posted on january 9, 2017 by james kwak | 25 comments by james kwak i haven’t written much about the election itself (except to point out that the same data can be interpreted in diametrically opposing ways). that’s because the election was so close that the fact that clinton lost can be explained by any number of but-for causes, and much of the democratic internet has been a cacophony of people insisting that their preferred cause (comey, russian hacking, not enough attention to african-americans, too much attention to minorities, not enough attention to the white working class, too much emphasis on trump’s personality, etc.) was the one true cause. i do think, however, that if democrats (a group in which include myself) want to return to power and change the overall political dynamics of this country, one thing we need to recognize is that republicans have been crushing us on the economic messaging front for decades. we have adapted by becoming republicans lite—no longer the party of jobs and the working person, but now the party of minimally intrusive market regulation, technocratic expertise, and free trade agreements. this is the subject of my article in literary hub today, “the failure of democratic storytelling.” now that democrats are out of power virtually across the board, we have the opportunity to develop a new vision, without having to compromise with joe manchin, arlen spector, and susan collins to squeak legislation through congress. the question is what we make of that opportunity. 25 comments posted in commentary tagged 2016 election, democratic party, economism, politics a change is in the air posted on december 30, 2016 by james kwak | 33 comments by james kwak there was one moment, when i was finishing up the manuscript of economism, that i thought someone had already said what i was trying to say in the book. this is what i read: “the beauty and the simplicity of such a theory are so great that it is easy to forget that it follows not from the actual facts, but from an incomplete hypothesis introduced for the sake of simplicity. … the conclusion that individuals acting independently for their own advantage will produce the greatest aggregate of wealth, depends on a variety of unreal assumptions … “individualism and laissez-faire could not, in spite of their deep roots in the political and moral philosophies of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, have secured their lasting hold over the conduct of public affairs, if it had not been for their conformity with the needs and wishes of the business world of the day. … “these many elements have contributed to the current intellectual bias, the mental make-up, the orthodoxy of the day.” continue reading → 33 comments posted in commentary tagged donald trump, economism, ideology, john maynard keynes, ray dalio the curse of credentialism posted on december 26, 2016 by james kwak | 12 comments by james kwak i just finished reading j. d. vance’s memoir, hillbilly elegy. i don’t feel like adding to the torrent of instanalysis of the “white working class,” however, so i’ll just comment on the description of yale law school—which, in the book, serves the dramatic function of introducing the author to the elite. photo by shmitra at the english language wikipedia (cc by-sa 3.0) there are a few details that seem unfamiliar to me—i can’t recall attending a single one of the “cocktail receptions and banquets” that vance describes as the school’s social rituals—but then again i was thirty-nine and married with a child when i started law school. but there is one thing that vance nails: the culture of credentialism. continue reading → 12 comments posted in commentary tagged credentialism, elite, yale law school larry kudlow and economics in the trump administration posted on december 23, 2016 by james kwak | 18 comments by james kwak noah smith (along with a fair section of the internet) has some concerns about larry kudlow as chair of the council of economic advisers: he’s overconfident, too much of a partisan, and fixated on nonexistent problems (e.g., inflation). i’m not so worried that he’s on team republican; after all, donald trump gets to pick the advisers he wants, and they shouldn’t be rejected solely because they take political sides. but i am worried about what kudlow’s appointment means for the relationship between economics and policy. the world is a complicated place. anyone who studies society in depth should learn to have respect for that fact. at any given moment, we have only a hazy understanding of what combinations of transitory phenomena and underlying structural factors produce what outcomes. (for exhibit a, see the election that took place on november 8.) this tweet at the beginning of game 7 of the cubs-indians world series, channeling the great french historian fernand braudel, is one of my all-time favorites: buck: will we see history tonight? smoltz: yes! braudel: no man can see history. this is the foam. the current of history is beyond our ken. — old hoss radbourn (@oldhossradbourn) november 3, 2016 continue reading → 18 comments posted in commentary tagged donald trump, economism, larry kudlow how not to invest posted on december 21, 2016 by james kwak | 5 comments by james kwak forty years after john bogle launched the vanguard 500 index fund, passive investment funds now account for about one-third of the mutual fund and etf market. you would think this would pose a threat to traditional asset managers that charge hefty fees for actively managed mutual funds, and this is true in part. on average, index funds charge 73 basis points less than active funds, and the average expense ratios for actively managed funds have fallen from 106 bp to 84 bp over the past fifteen years (investment company institute, 2016 investment company fact book, figure 5.6). continue reading → 5 comments posted in commentary tagged asset management, economism, investing, mutual funds ← older posts baseline scenario on facebook baseline scenario on facebook simonview baselinescene’s profile on twittersimon on twittermy tweetsour first book our second book search for: james’s new book jamesview jamesykwak’s profile on facebookview jamesykwak’s profile on twitterjames on twittermy tweets recent posts conflicts and corruption economism typo contest economism and the future of the democratic party a change is in the air the curse of credentialism larry kudlow and economics in the trump administration how not to invest jeb hensarling and the allure of economism economism: special holiday offer more on the deduction fairy economics 101, economism, and our new gilded age the deduction fairy archives archives select month january 2017 december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 october 2008 september 2008 links angry bear brad delong calculated risk econacademics.org econbrowser econlog economic principals economicsuk economist’s view economists’ forum at financial times ezra klein felix salmon free exchange (the economist) imfdirect interfluidity macroadvisers marginal revolution mit sloan experts money supply (ft) naked capitalism new deal 2.0 nouriel roubini npr planet money oecd insights oilprice.com paul krugman paul solman peterson institute: crisis watch rational irrationality real time economics (wsj) rortybomb sense on cents the epicurean dealmaker the pareto commons tobin project triplecrisis washington outside washington's blog all contents are copyright of the authors. the baseline scenario is a trademark of the authors. blog at wordpress.com. the baseline scenario blog at wordpress.com. post to cancel


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