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the baseline scenario what happened to the global economy and what we can do about it skip to content about 13 bankers white house burning read more follow us ← older posts soak the poor, feed the rich posted on march 7, 2017 by james kwak | 21 comments by james kwak after the dangerous clown show that has been the trump white house, it’s comforting to return to some good, old-fashioned conservative policymaking: bashing the poor to cut taxes on the rich. i’m talking, of course, about the republican plan to repeal and replace obamacare. health care financing can sometimes seem like a complicated topic. adverse selection, risk adjustment, blah blah blah. but it’s easy to understand the american health care act or, as it is sure to be known, trumpcare. in the medium term, financing policies have little effect on the price of health care. at most we can hope to “bend the [long-term] cost curve.” so health care policy essentially comes down to a single question: who pays? continue reading → 21 comments posted in commentary, syndication tagged health care, health insurance, obamacare, trumpcare review copies of economism posted on march 5, 2017 by james kwak | 1 comment by james kwak if you teach introductory economics or introductory micro, at either the high school or university level, and you’re interested in possibly using economism in your class, let me know and i’ll send you a (free) review copy. just email me at james.kwak@uconn.edu from your school account, tell me what class you are thinking of assigning the book to, and let me know your shipping address, and i’ll order a copy for you.* quick summary: the central theme of economism is that some of the basic models taught in “economics 101” have acquired disproportionate influence in contemporary society and are routinely and systematically misapplied to important policy questions. the problem is not that introductory models are wrong, but that too many people forget their limitations and believe that their simple conclusions can be reflexively applied to the real world. as paul samuelson said in the first edition of his textbook, the idea that “any interference with free competition by government was almost certain to be injurious … is all that some of our leading citizens remember, 30 years later, of their college course in economics.” in chapters on labor markets, taxes, trade, and other topics, economism first walks through the implications of introductory models before explaining how a richer understanding of economic reality, including empirical research, teaches different and more interesting lessons. if you worry that the typical first-year curriculum produces too many students who think unregulated markets are the answer to every problem, economism may be the antidote you need. in the financial times, martin sandbu wrote, “economics lecturers, take note: include [economism] on your syllabus and set aside ample time to discuss its arguments in class.” the book has also received praise from many economists including ian ayres (yale law school), jared bernstein (former chief economic adviser to vice president joe biden), heather boushey (chief economist, washington center for equitable growth), simon johnson (mit sloan; former chief economist, imf; and my frequent co-author), dani rodrik (harvard), and noah smith (bloomberg view). for more about the book, you can visit economism.net. the atlantic also published an excerpt. (it’s basically the first half of the labor market chapter, on the minimum wage; the second half of that chapter deals with the compensation of very high earners.) and again, email me if you want a review copy. (note: i’m not doing this for the money; i’m doing it to get the book in the hands of as many students as possible. i have donated all of my royalties from 13 bankers, white house burning, and economism to charitable organizations. i can’t anticipate my financial situation for the rest of my life, but i will donate all royalties from economism for at least the next five years.) * the fine print (updated): in the past twelve hours, the large majority of requests i’ve gotten have not actually been from people who teach introductory economics classes, so here are some clarifications: you know how publishers send you review copies of textbooks, hoping that you’ll assign them to your students? this is the same thing. that’s why i ask that you tell me what class you might use the book in. if it isn’t introductory economics or introductory micro, or if you don’t specify a class, i may send you a review copy, but only after seeing how many requests i get from people who are teaching those classes. i’m not actually going to try to check what your teaching schedule is, so this is on the honor system. but please remember that i’m paying for these books, not the publisher. let me know if you prefer hard copy or kindle. if the latter, i need to know the email address of your amazon account. non-u.s. requests: i can’t send hard copies outside the u.s. because i’m ordering the books individually from amazon. (it’s too much work for me to mail them individually.) i can send you a kindle copy. so please send me the email address of your amazon u.s. account; i don’t think the book is for sale from most other amazon subsidiaries, and in any case i’m buying the books with my amazon u.s. account. 1 comment posted in books, syndication tagged economics 101, economism, teaching why is connecticut giving its employees’ money to the asset management industry? posted on january 30, 2017 by james kwak | 4 comments by james kwak in general, the state of connecticut offers pretty good defined contribution retirement plans to its employees. most importantly, it offers several low-cost index funds in institutional share classes. for example, you can invest in the vanguard institutional index fund institutional plus shares, which tracks the s&p 500 for just 2 basis points, or the tiaa-cref small-cap blend index institutional class, which tracks the russell 2000 for just 7 basis points. administrative fees are unbundled, and are only 5 basis points. for no good reason i can discern, however, you can also invest in actively managed stock funds like the jpmorgan mid cap value fund, which costs 80 basis points. as i’ve previously said, i have mixed feelings about target date funds. in principle, they do the reallocation and rebalancing for you, so they could be appropriate for people who want to make one choice and then forget about their investments (which, in many ways, is a good strategy). the hitch is that a target date fund is only as good as the funds inside it. fidelity, for example, puts twenty-five different funds inside one of its target date funds, including thirteen u.s. stock funds, eleven of which appear to be actively managed. this is just a clever way to sneak expensive active management back in through the back door. the connecticut retirement plans do have target date funds, but luckily they use vanguard’s versions, which are made up of index funds and only charge 14–16 bp (as opposed to 77 bp for the fidelity freedom 2040 fund) … until now. as of february, the connecticut defined contribution plans are switching away from vanguard to something called “goalmaker,” which takes your money and spreads it out among the various funds offered by the plan—including those expensive, actively managed funds. for example, if you say you have a moderate risk tolerance and want to retire in 2034, it puts your money in fourteen different funds—including six u.s. stock funds, three of which are actively managed. this is just fake diversification. on one level, it may seem more prudent to have money in both the vanguard s&p index fund and the fidelity vip contrafund portfolio (wow, “vip,” that must be special!). but mutual funds are already diversified—particularly index funds. if you have some reason for thinking that the vip contrafund portfolio will beat the index, then you might choose to invest in it—but, in fact, it’s trailed the s&p 500 over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. most likely, the people who are currently invested in vanguard target date funds will get shifted into goalmaker portfolios. they will pay several times as much in fees for basically the same thing, except with a little additional risk due to managers’ attempts to beat the market. it’s hard to see how this makes anyone better off—except the asset managers themselves. 4 comments posted in commentary, syndication tagged asset management, investing, retirement savings the right to have rights posted on january 27, 2017 by james kwak | 7 comments by james kwak there’s a story you hear often these days. the story is that america has too many lawsuits: too many lawyers, too many people filing frivolous suits, too many excessive damages awards by juries, and so on. this story is the reason for all the “litigation reform” in recent decades: the private securities litigation reform act of 1995, prison litigation reform act of 1996, the state-level tort reform movement, bell atlantic v. twombly, ashcroft v. iqbal, and so on. there are two problems with this story. the first is that it isn’t true. take medical malpractice, for example—a frequent target of tort reform advocates. only a tiny fraction—probably under 2%—of people harmed by negligent medical care actually file suit. of suits that are filed, according to an after-the-fact review by unaffiliated doctors, 63% involved errors by doctors, and another 17% showed some evidence of error. according to the most basic economic theory of torts, we want people harmed by negligence to sue, because otherwise potential defendants (doctors, companies, etc.) will not have sufficient incentive to make the efficient level of investments in preventing injuries. in short, it is highly likely that we suffer from not enough lawsuits, not from too many lawsuits. the second problem is more important, however. that problem is that while the costs of litigation are real—not just money but also defensive medicine, intimidation of startups by patent trolls, intimidation of the media by billionaires—the exclusive focus on costs overlooks the crucial role of litigation in our democracy. that is the focus of the new book in praise of litigation by alexandra lahav, a colleague of mine at the university of connecticut school of law. (the book is also where i got the statistics in the previous paragraph.) continue reading → 7 comments posted in books, syndication tagged books, inequality, law, litigation economism and economics posted on january 24, 2017 by james kwak | 11 comments by james kwak one point i try to be clear about in my new book is that economism—the assumption that simple economics 101 models accurately describe the real world—is not the same as economics. there are people who think that all of economics, or at least all of modern, mathematically inclined, “neoclassical” economics, is at fault for the growth of neoliberal capitalism and the increase in inequality in rich countries. i am not one of them. in my mind, the problem is knowing just a little bit of economics—the proverbial little bit of knowledge. (my favorite form of that proverb, despite its religious origins, is the following: “a little knowledge is apt to puff up, and make men giddy, but a greater share of it will set them right, and bring them to low and humble thoughts of themselves.”) when you learn more economics, you learn that the world has more than just supply, demand, price, and quantity. matt yglesias has even tried to argue that “on a whole lot of issues the basic econ 101 view supports the liberal position.” i think he’s exaggerating his point—on a whole lot of issues, economics 101 tells you that market failures are possible, but that doesn’t necessarily dictate a liberal policy outcome. but whatever is actually in an introductory textbook, the problem is that what people think they remember—or what people who never took economics think the subject teaches—is that competitive markets produce optimal outcomes. as paul samuelson wrote in the first edition of his textbook (and i never tire of quoting), the idea that “any interference with free competition by government was almost certain to be injurious … is all that some of our leading citizens remember, 30 years later, of their college course in economics.” the historical development of economism, and its divergence from economics, is the subject of chapter 3 of my book, and also of my new article in the chronicle review. the article also includes some of my thoughts on how the teaching of economics might be modified to give students a richer and more balanced understanding of the discipline. for more, head on over there. 11 comments posted in op-ed, syndication tagged economics, economism economism and the law posted on january 23, 2017 by james kwak | 2 comments by james kwak economism—the simplistic, unreflecting application of economics 101 models to complex, real-world issues—is particularly influential in the law, including both legal academia and actual court opinions that decide important questions. the "economism" that @jamesykwak talks about is at its worst in the legal profession: https://t.co/84ouonl49r — noah smith (@noahpinion) january 17, 2017 noah smith, for example, points to a paper by a law professor arguing that forced prison labor deters crime because it effectively raises the price of crime in a supply-and-demand model. the problem with this model is that it doesn’t accurately describe criminal behavior. smith quotes economist alex tabarrok on what happened when the united states dramatically increased the harshness of punishments: in theory, this should have reduced crime, reduced the costs of crime control and led to fewer people in prison. in practice … the experiment with greater punishment led to more spending on crime control and many more people in prison. continue reading → 2 comments posted in books, syndication tagged economism, ideology, law, richard posner economism and health care posted on january 20, 2017 by james kwak | 21 comments by james kwak a core feature of competitive markets, according to the basic model, is that they allocate goods to the people or companies that are willing to pay the most for them. in theory, and in many situations, this is a good thing: if i am willing to pay $1,000 for a custom portrait of my (daughter’s) dog, and you are only willing to pay $1 for it, then aggregate satisfaction is likely to be higher if i get the portrait. but not always: if i am willing to pay $10 for a turkey sandwich, but you are only willing to pay $1 because you only have $1, and have no borrowing capacity, then society may very well be better off if you get the sandwich. yet in an ordinary, healthy market, i get the sandwich. this problem is acutely apparent when it comes to health care. people place a high value on not dying, but when it comes to the allocation of medical treatment, they can’t bid more than their income allows. the obvious result is that markets deliver unnecessary procedures to rich people while denying essential care to poor people—because that’s what markets do. obamacare attempted (with mixed success) to mitigate this problem. the trump administration is rhetorically committed to deregulating health insurance; the question is whether they are willing to accept the political consequences of pricing millions of people out of not dying. this is the topic of my new guest post, “health care and john d. rockefeller’s dog,” on econbrowser (a fabulous economics blog, by the way, written by menzie chinn and james hamilton). for more, head on over there. 21 comments posted in commentary, syndication ← older posts baseline scenario on facebook baseline scenario on facebook simonview baselinescene’s profile on twittersimon on twittermy tweetsour first book our second book search for: james’s new book jamesview jamesykwak’s profile on facebookview jamesykwak’s profile on twitterjames on twittermy tweets recent posts soak the poor, feed the rich review copies of economism why is connecticut giving its employees’ money to the asset management industry? the right to have rights economism and economics economism and the law economism and health care conflicts and corruption economism typo contest economism and the future of the democratic party a change is in the air the curse of credentialism archives archives select month march 2017 january 2017 december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 october 2008 september 2008 links angry bear brad delong calculated risk econacademics.org econbrowser econlog economic principals economicsuk economist’s view economists’ forum at financial times ezra klein felix salmon free exchange (the economist) imfdirect interfluidity macroadvisers marginal revolution mit sloan experts money supply (ft) naked capitalism new deal 2.0 nouriel roubini npr planet money oecd insights oilprice.com paul krugman paul solman peterson institute: crisis watch rational irrationality real time economics (wsj) rortybomb sense on cents the epicurean dealmaker the pareto commons tobin project triplecrisis washington outside washington's blog all contents are copyright of the authors. the baseline scenario is a trademark of the authors. blog at wordpress.com. the baseline scenario blog at wordpress.com. post to cancel


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