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the baseline scenario what happened to the global economy and what we can do about it skip to content about 13 bankers white house burning read more follow us ← older posts more on the deduction fairy posted on december 2, 2016 by james kwak | 5 comments by james kwak [updated with mnuchin’s position on charitable contribution deduction.] i wrote two days ago about the fairy tale that you can lower tax rates for the very rich yet avoid raising their actual taxes by eliminating those mythical beasts, loopholes and deductions. the basic problem with this story is that, at the very high end of the distribution, deductions and exclusions (with the possible exception of the deduction for charitable contributions) just don’t amount to very much as a percentage of income. therefore, eliminating those deductions may increase rich people’s taxes by tens of thousands of dollars, but that is only a tiny proportion of their overall tax burden, and not enough to offset any significant rate decrease. unlike me, daniel hemel and kyle rozema are actual tax scholars (hemel has a blog on medium), and their detailed research largely tells the same story. they have a forthcoming paper that analyzes the mortgage interest deduction (mid) and shows that, while it is worth more dollars to rich people than poor people (for all the well-known reasons—bigger houses, higher marginal rates, itemizing), the mid causes people in the top 1% to pay a larger share of the overall tax burden. therefore, eliminating the mid and using the increased tax revenue to reduce tax rates for everyone (what mnuchin proposed in concept) would be a large windfall for the top 0.1% and a small windfall for the rest of the 1%. the numbers are in the last column of this table: continue reading → 5 comments posted in commentary tagged inequality, taxes economics 101, economism, and our new gilded age posted on december 2, 2016 by james kwak | 11 comments by james kwak my new book—economism: bad economics and the rise of inequality—is coming out on january 10 (although, of course, you can pre-order it from your local monopoly now). if you’d like more information about the book, the book website is now up at economism.net. (i used medium instead of wordpress.com this time.) the post below, which is also the top story on the book website, summarizes the main themes of the book. income inequality is at levels not seen for a century. many working families are struggling to get by, only kept afloat by medicaid and food stamps. the federal minimum wage is just $7.25 per hour—below the poverty line even for a family of two. the bright outlook for corporate profits has driven the s&p 500 to record levels. surely it makes sense to raise the minimum wage, forcing companies to dip into those profits to pay their workers a bit more. but that’s not what you learn in economics 101. the impact of a minimum wage is blissfully easy to model using the supply-and-demand diagram that dominates first-year economics courses. continue reading → 11 comments posted in books tagged economics, economism, inequality the deduction fairy posted on november 30, 2016 by james kwak | 9 comments by james kwak incoming treasury secretary steven mnuchin promised a big tax cut for corporations and the “middle class,” but not for the rich. “any tax cuts for the upper class will be offset by less deductions that pay for it,” he said on cnbc. this is impossible. the tax cutting mantra comes in two forms. the more extreme one claims that reducing the overall tax burden on the rich will turbocharge the economy because they will save more, increasing investment, and will also work more, starting companies and doing all those other wonderful things that rich people do. the less extreme version is that we should lower tax rates to reduce distortions in the tax code, but we can maintain the current level of taxes paid by the rich by eliminating those famous “loopholes and deductions.” donald trump the candidate stuck with the former: his tax proposal, as scored by the tax policy center, gave 47% of its total tax cuts to the top 1%, who also enjoyed by far the largest reduction in their average tax rate. mnuchin’s comment implies that he favors the latter version: lowering rates but making it up by “broadening the base.” this math might work for the merely rich—say, families making $200,000–400,000 per year. take away the mortgage interest tax deduction, the deduction for retirement plan contributions, and the exclusion for employer-provided health care—which together can easily shield $50–75,000 in income—and you could probably fund several percentage points of rate decreases. (of course, it would be politically impossible to completely eliminate those tax breaks, but that’s another story.) continue reading → 9 comments posted in commentary tagged donald trump, inequality, steven mnuchin, taxes what you can do posted on november 17, 2016 by james kwak | 23 comments by james kwak several of my friends, some of whom i haven’t spoken with in a long time, have reached out to me over the past week to discuss what to make of last week’s election. i imagine this is happening with a lot of people. although i don’t have any simple answers, i do have some thoughts on what we can do in response to the prospect of donald trump and the republicans controlling the entire federal government, as well as a large majority of states. but first, we need a short detour—for a bit of perspective. maurice walker is a fifty-five-year-old man with schizophrenia whose only income is $530 per month in social security disability payments. on september 3, 2015, he was arrested by police in calhoun, georgia for being a “pedestrian under the influence”—something many of us have been guilty of at one time or another. if walker had been able to come up with $160 (something most people reading this blog could do in seconds), he would have walked free. instead, he was locked up in jail, without his medication. continue reading → 23 comments posted in commentary tagged civil rights, democratic party, donald trump, politics, schr narratives posted on november 10, 2016 by james kwak | 24 comments by james kwak [updated to add another headline leading with “white voters.”] two days later, some of the world’s leading newspapers—or their headline-writers, at least—are saying it was all or largely about race: the respective roles of race and class in this year’s election are a highly contentious issue. i’d like to add to that contentiousness as little as possible while pointing out that this race-based framing isn’t really supported by exit poll data. i want to get ahead of the vitriol by stipulating that the exit polls don’t provide conclusive evidence for either side. ok, here’s the data: those are vote shares in the presidential election by racial or ethnic group. the numbers at the right show you the shift from the previous election.* in this case, the democratic-republican gap among white voters shifted by 8 points toward the republican. that’s evidence that the election was about white voters, right? except those are the 2012 exit polls. the 8-point shift is relative to the 2008 exit polls. continue reading → 24 comments posted in commentary tagged donald trump, politics, polls the biggest voter suppression campaign of all posted on november 8, 2016 by james kwak | 13 comments by james kwak this election day, spare a thought for the largest group of citizens who aren’t eligible to vote: children. my four-year old just learned that he doesn't get to vote tomorrow and he burst into tears and i feel for him. — justin wolfers (@justinwolfers) november 8, 2016 when i was in high school, i believed strongly that there should be no voting age whatsoever. anyone should be able to vote, no matter her age. well, i still feel that way, particularly after watching my ten-year-old daughter knocking on doors and explaining to adults why she doesn’t want her school to be grade-reconfigured. and i feel that way even though i also have a four-year-old son whose vote could be bought for a lollipop. (whether he would stay bought is another question.) there are two main arguments against a voting age. the first is that any plausible justification for a minimum voting age could be better served by some other test—which would be illegal. many people think it is obvious that children shouldn’t be allowed to vote because they are uninformed, irresponsible, lack the necessary cognitive skills, are easily swayed by their parents, or something along those lines. (note that similar arguments were made about all the other groups that used to be unable to vote.) but if the point of a voting age is to ensure that the electorate is properly informed about the issues and the stakes, we could administer a test, which would do a better job than an arbitrary age cutoff. (who is the vice president? which house of congress approves judicial nominations? etc.) that test would violate the voting rights act, just like literacy tests. continue reading → 13 comments posted in commentary tagged politics, voting models of economic policymaking posted on october 30, 2016 by james kwak | 12 comments by james kwak the evening that he won the iowa caucus in january 2008, barack obama said this: hope is the bedrock of this nation. the belief that our destiny will not be written for us, but by us, by all those men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is, who have the courage to remake the world as it should be… . [the belief that] brick by brick, block by block, callused hand by callused hand, … ordinary people can do extraordinary things. that speech is at the opening of k. sabeel rahman’s new book, democracy against domination. it invoked one of the central mobilizing themes of obama’s 2008 campaign, which set him clearly apart from hillary clinton: the idea that the senator from illinois would usher in a new kind of politics, a more democratic, more inclusive approach to government as opposed to business as usual inside the beltway. well, that didn’t happen. whatever you think of president obama’s policy goals and accomplishments, he had little impact on how our political system works. plenty of blame for that goes to the republicans, who set out from inauguration day focused exclusively on making him a one-term president. but it’s also true that the new president did not make political reform a priority during those first two years when he had majorities in both houses of congress. continue reading → 12 comments posted in books tagged democracy, economic policy, politics, regulation ← older posts baseline scenario on facebook baseline scenario on facebook simonview baselinescene’s profile on twittersimon on twittermy tweetsour first book our second book search for: james’s new book jamesview jamesykwak’s profile on facebookview jamesykwak’s profile on twitterjames on twittermy tweets recent posts more on the deduction fairy economics 101, economism, and our new gilded age the deduction fairy what you can do narratives the biggest voter suppression campaign of all models of economic policymaking the last chapter problem time to vote; no on 5 ideas, interests, and the challenge for progressives structure and superstructure economic anxiety and the limits of data journalism archives archives select month december 2016 november 2016 october 2016 september 2016 august 2016 july 2016 june 2016 may 2016 april 2016 march 2016 february 2016 january 2016 december 2015 november 2015 october 2015 september 2015 august 2015 july 2015 june 2015 may 2015 april 2015 february 2015 january 2015 december 2014 november 2014 october 2014 september 2014 july 2014 june 2014 may 2014 april 2014 march 2014 february 2014 january 2014 december 2013 november 2013 october 2013 september 2013 august 2013 july 2013 june 2013 may 2013 april 2013 march 2013 february 2013 january 2013 december 2012 november 2012 october 2012 september 2012 august 2012 july 2012 june 2012 may 2012 april 2012 march 2012 february 2012 january 2012 december 2011 november 2011 october 2011 september 2011 august 2011 july 2011 june 2011 may 2011 april 2011 march 2011 february 2011 january 2011 december 2010 november 2010 october 2010 september 2010 august 2010 july 2010 june 2010 may 2010 april 2010 march 2010 february 2010 january 2010 december 2009 november 2009 october 2009 september 2009 august 2009 july 2009 june 2009 may 2009 april 2009 march 2009 february 2009 january 2009 december 2008 november 2008 october 2008 september 2008 links angry bear brad delong calculated risk econacademics.org econbrowser econlog economic principals economicsuk economist’s view economists’ forum at financial times ezra klein felix salmon free exchange (the economist) imfdirect interfluidity macroadvisers marginal revolution mit sloan experts money supply (ft) naked capitalism new deal 2.0 nouriel roubini npr planet money oecd insights oilprice.com paul krugman paul solman peterson institute: crisis watch rational irrationality real time economics (wsj) rortybomb sense on cents the epicurean dealmaker the pareto commons tobin project triplecrisis washington outside washington's blog all contents are copyright of the authors. the baseline scenario is a trademark of the authors. blog at wordpress.com. the baseline scenario blog at wordpress.com. post to cancel


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