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over-proof opinion, smoothly aged insight
david warren on trump
american revolution redux
regimental sergeant major trump addresses the regiment
soros versus trump
reagan versus trump
america’s lying media—part 2
cliodynamics and projection of political instability
craft whisky
800-year financial perspective
“republicans to gut ethics office”, flavour added
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barrel strength http://www.barrelstrength.com/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/
david warren on trump http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/david-warren-trump/
my thoughts exactly, only warren  said them better. a tip of the hat to the prisoner in the high doganate. http://www.davidwarrenonline.com/2017/01/21/the-morning-after-the-night-before/
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/david-warren-trump/
dalwhinnie http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/dalwhinnie/
add a comment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/david-warren-trump/#respond
american revolution redux http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/american-revolution-redux/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/american-revolution-redux/declaration_independence/
linda sarsour http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/01/figrues-organizer-dc-womens-march-linda-sarsour-pro-sharia-law-ties-hamas/
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/american-revolution-redux/
rebel yell http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/rebel-yell/
add a comment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/american-revolution-redux/#respond
regimental sergeant major trump addresses the regiment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/21/regimental-sergeant-major-trump-addresses-regiment/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/21/regimental-sergeant-major-trump-addresses-regiment/rsm/
an extraordinary speech from the president: direct, short, and clear. http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/20/politics/trump-inaugural-address/index.html
peggy noonan  is apprehensive http://www.wsj.com/articles/president-trump-declares-independence-1484956174
rex murphy is more hopeful for trump http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/rex-murphy-trump-delivered-a-plain-serious-and-monumental-promise-to-give-washington-back-to-the-people
piers morgan wishes him well: ten minutes that shook the world. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4141556/piers-ten-stunning-minutes-talk-shook-world.html
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/21/regimental-sergeant-major-trump-addresses-regiment/
dalwhinnie http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/dalwhinnie/
add a comment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/21/regimental-sergeant-major-trump-addresses-regiment/#respond
soros versus trump http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/20/soros-versus-trump/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/2016/12/30/george-soros-analyzes-world-situation/soros/
an excellent article in city journal on george soros https://www.city-journal.org/html/connoisseur-chaos-14954.html
patrick buchanan, who must be revelling in finally being proven right about really large events, wrote: http://www.wnd.com/2017/01/new-president-new-world/#tdfpdkpftjw6ofza.99
the long list of villainy and evil promoted by soros is fully explored in the city journal article, “connoisseur of chaos”. https://www.city-journal.org/html/connoisseur-chaos-14954.html
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/20/soros-versus-trump/
dalwhinnie http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/dalwhinnie/
add a comment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/20/soros-versus-trump/#respond
reagan versus trump http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/17/reagan-versus-trump/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/17/reagan-versus-trump/trump-4/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/17/reagan-versus-trump/reagan/
globalization, national sovereignty and democratic politics”. http://www.barrelstrength.com/2016/12/07/globalization-national-sovereignty-democratic-politics/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/2016/12/07/globalization-national-sovereignty-democratic-politics/rodrik-trilemma/
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/17/reagan-versus-trump/
dalwhinnie http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/dalwhinnie/
add a comment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/17/reagan-versus-trump/#respond
america’s lying media—part 2 http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/14/americas-lying-media-part-2/
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/14/americas-lying-media-part-2/
rebel yell http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/rebel-yell/
3 comments http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/14/americas-lying-media-part-2/#comments
cliodynamics and projection of political instability http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/09/cliodynamics-projection-political-instability/
peter urchin http://peterturchin.com/
cliodynamics http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/
stated the following http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7281/full/463608a.html
updated http://phys.org/news/2017-01-social-instability-lies.html
blame rich, overeducated elites as our society frays https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-11-20/blame-rich-overeducated-elites-as-our-society-frays
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/09/cliodynamics-projection-political-instability/
arran gold http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/arrangold/
3 comments http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/09/cliodynamics-projection-political-instability/#comments
craft whisky http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/craft-whisky/
balcones http://www.balconesdistilling.com/
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/craft-whisky/
arran gold http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/arrangold/
1 comment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/craft-whisky/#comments
800-year financial perspective http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/800-year-financial-perspective/
linked article, https://bankunderground.co.uk/2017/01/04/venetians-volcker-and-value-at-risk-8-centuries-of-bond-market-reversals/
- http://www.barrelstrength.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/chart-1.png
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http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/800-year-financial-perspective/
arran gold http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/arrangold/
1 comment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/800-year-financial-perspective/#comments
“republicans to gut ethics office”, flavour added http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/republicans-gut-ethics-office-flavour-added/
informs us http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38499284
politico informs us http://www.politico.com/story/2010/06/lawmakers-seek-to-gut-ethics-office-038345
wapo informs us https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/01/02/house-republicans-vote-to-rein-in-independent-ethics-office/?utm_term=.1275f569c672
http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/republicans-gut-ethics-office-flavour-added/
arran gold http://www.barrelstrength.com/author/arrangold/
2 comments http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/08/republicans-gut-ethics-office-flavour-added/#comments
2 http://www.barrelstrength.com/page/2/
3 http://www.barrelstrength.com/page/3/
4 http://www.barrelstrength.com/page/4/
5 http://www.barrelstrength.com/page/5/
6 http://www.barrelstrength.com/page/6/
7 http://www.barrelstrength.com/page/7/
next http://www.barrelstrength.com/page/2/
david warren on trump http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/david-warren-trump/
american revolution redux http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/22/american-revolution-redux/
regimental sergeant major trump addresses the regiment http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/21/regimental-sergeant-major-trump-addresses-regiment/
soros versus trump http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/20/soros-versus-trump/
reagan versus trump http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/17/reagan-versus-trump/
reagan versus trump - barrel strength http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/17/reagan-versus-trump/
globalization, national sovereignty and democratic politics http://www.barrelstrength.com/2016/12/07/globalization-national-sovereignty-democratic-politics/#comment-961214
america’s lying media—part 2 http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/14/americas-lying-media-part-2/#comment-958814
america’s lying media—part 2 http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/14/americas-lying-media-part-2/#comment-958742
america’s lying media—part 2 http://www.barrelstrength.com/2017/01/14/americas-lying-media-part-2/#comment-958732
julie nesrallah, would you please shut up? http://www.barrelstrength.com/2016/03/21/julie-nesrallah-please-shut/#comment-958609
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barrel strength over-proof opinion, smoothly aged insight david warren on trump my thoughts exactly, only warren  said them better. a tip of the hat to the prisoner in the high doganate. doesn’t smoke, doesn’t drink. admits to a germ phobia. works twenty hours a day. this might be a crazy man. or possibly an android. but androids aren’t vain. and besides, he admits that he is vain, unlike the previous android. prides himself especially on his “common sense.” he also seems to have a sense of humour, and to be capable of self-deprecation. but hasn’t made a habit of it. extreme self-confidence; comfortable among strong-willed people. he is very smart, very sharp, with that kind of intelligence that was made for survival on a stage. quick on his feet; knows when to duck. and unlike a politician, when not to. (as i mentioned in a recent post, the public are good at judging pretty faces on their tvs; not so good at estimating intelligence.) remarkably candid. doesn’t mind if you don’t like it. likes people in uniform, from generals to hotel cleaning staff. knows how to wear a tuxedo; or a babe on his arm. decidedly heterosexual. likes strong women, too. (women are discovering that sometimes a man is okay, for a change.) can do business with anybody, both in his imagination and in fact. bit of a temper on him: retaliates for slights. can recall, but does not nurse a grudge. people who have actually known him for a long time say he is a warm, loyal, generous friend, who remembers birthdays. (certainly well organized, in that way.) and i have seen interviews with him from years ago, in which his political views were solicited, before he became a professional politician. (once a hack, always a hack: i can’t stop myself inquiring into “background.”) those views have not changed: a “populist” then as now. doesn’t like wars. knows they cost a lot of money. would rather that no one got hurt. given to overstatement and wild exaggeration, but with enjoyment. needs coaching on the understatement side. basically honest, in a businesslike way. unlikely to commit crimes, once he knows what they are. i have no reason to believe he is a gangster, apart from the fact he’s been in real estate, and often talks like a gangster. also looks like a gangster, and dresses like one, and has a wife who looks like a moll, but i don’t think it’s fair to dwell on appearances. (too, she looks absolutely gorgeous in powder blue.) for that matter, most gangsters are refreshingly honest, when the stakes are low. gratuitous dishonesty is for the general population, who never take big risks. as protection rackets go, one is probably better off with gangsters than with minor-league bureaucrats, looking for something to enforce, if only to assuage their minor-league bureaucratic egos. gangsters are happy to overlook the small stuff. they get big by focusing on the “bigly.” we get small by focusing on the small change. fortunately for us, gangsters create employment, and don’t make a scene unless they have to. (however, little-league gangsters can be a pest.) moses gave ten commandments, by the way. only three are currently enforceable, and those only in carefully specified cases. but there are more than 10,000 felonies on the u.s. books today (i saw an estimate somewhere, of nearly 17,000) — from dwarf tossing (in florida) to slow dancing (in a national park). they are currently increasing faster than 1,000 a year: a few by statute, the rest through regulatory codes. goodness knows how many misdemeanours. nanny state can always nail you for something. nineteen in twenty convictions are by plea bargain; 97 percent of charges stick in some form (approximately the level in stalin’s russia). and this despite sometimes slovenly police. tens of millions of convicted felons; about 7 million currently in gaol or on parole; well over a million busy lawyers. just think if they had proper trials. so yes, the people in the inaugural crowd who shouted that hillary should go to gaol, had a point. and donald should surely go there, too. so should everybody. indeed, it is conventionally christian to observe, that we all deserve to hang. i listened carefully to the inaugural speech. you had to be a foreigner to appreciate it. to such an one, it sounded as if the new chief executive conceives of natted states merica as one yuge protection racket. as i said: better to be in than out. and on reasons hinted, i think this is for the best. the previous chief was a fusspot, a nickel-and-dime man, lacking the strategic vision. he was never sure whose side he was on. he set some sort of record for new laws. high time to simplify things. january 22, 2017 dalwhinnieadd a comment american revolution redux the media squirmed, the establishment fumed, and the ever-demented left took to the streets for violence and mayhem. a call to arms and a call to america to reclaim her heritage as the leading light of liberty in the world; to put her people to work, to reject identity politics and to cleave to all things the citizens of the nation have in common; and to learn loyalty, not only to the nation, but to one another. ….thus spake the donald. the donald delivered a remarkable speech at the inauguration, rejecting the creaking platitudes and oily pablum (aka obama’s “soaring rhetoric”), thereby placing the country firmly on a path toward reaffirming the nationality of america, toward re-employing american working people, and toward a new america on the world stage as a free nation, not an empire builder. true to his character of “never give a inch”, he gave them all both barrels. after eight years of obama’s corrosive policies eating away at the roots of the american nation and culture, president trump has set the stage for a house cleaning the country hasn’t seen in decades. racial divisions, fueled by the spiteful identity politics of the left must be swept away. the education system, poisoned by years of cultural marxism, must be thoroughly reformed, western civilization taught to students, standards invigorated, and the unholy racket of public service unions and the democrat party broken. the immigration laws must be enforced and all criminal aliens deported. the years of lawlessness under the obama administration must end. “sanctuary cities”, or any institution that refuses to enforce federal law must be denied federal funding and prosecuted. attorney general sessions seems the man for job. at the root of it all is the idea that america is a nation, is a people, has a culture, and the government serves her citizens whose well-being is the prime responsibility of government. to be a conservative means to recognize these facts. without them, there is no nation or people or culture to conserve. while competition and free trade are, in moderation, advantageous to prosperity, they are not ends in themselves. like oxygen; too little, and the organism suffocates; too much, and the metabolism is poisoned. the art of good government is to balance the opposing forces, always with the objective of preserving the nation and its culture. the political class of the us has carried them to extremes, resulting in the impoverishment of much of suburban and rural america. this has led to the ruin of millions of families in america’s heartland and the enrichment of an arrogant and parasitic establishment in a few coastal cities and the corridors of washington’s halls of power. the bailout mania after the 2008 crash has only enriched the new york money power. the objectives of the political class have, until now, been to weaken and destroy all nation states and national democracies with political thought control, mass immigration of incompatible cultures through the big lie of multiculturalism, and the destruction of national cohesion by pushing identity politics everywhere—especially in schools. the pursuit of identity politics, where everyone is a hyphenated citizen, black, wimmin, queer, weirdo, (never white), only serves to divide all citizens into tribes and to destroy our common interests. thus divided groups harboring enmity to others make us easier to control by the forces of national disintegration. the pursuit of mass immigration, particularly of islamic immigration, is designed to import an unassimilable culture into the west. this misogynistic, anti-gay, anti-semitic culture, unreformed from seventh century arabia, is subversion of the values enshrined in the constitutions of many western states. allowing sharia law a foothold in any country is the first step toward surrendering our freedoms to a multicultural world order dominated by the oligarchies of the eu and the new york money power. islam is inimical to all the values that form the bases of the nations of western civilization—it is a totalitarianism similar to communism, but without the charm. the destruction of faith in the historic structures of western civilization is the object of multiculturalism—the death of free nations. any government of any free nation must put the safety and integrity of its citizenry prior to all other considerations. this is why the immigration issue is of paramount importance and why the establishment powers wish to suppress discussion of it at every opportunity. trump just blew all that out of the water. so, buckle up folks, it’s going to be a great ride. finally, a leader to take on the rotten establishments of the west and ready to inject some self discipline and self respect into the national and international discourse. no wonder the political class and its toady media are having a bad case of the vapors. and, as an addendum, the “wimmin’s march”, a parade of ill-mannered, lefty slags, perfectly illustrates why trump won the women’s vote too.  and guess who was one of the organizers—linda sarsour, a pro-palestine muslim activist who advocates sharia law in the west and has ties to the terrorist hamas.  a fine example of womanhood! suck it up, buttercup. rebel yell january 22, 2017january 22, 2017 rebel yelladd a comment regimental sergeant major trump addresses the regiment that was by any standard an extraordinary speech from the president: direct, short, and clear. the situation has been made intolerable. we are in dire straits. your leadership has failed you. but patriotism will see us through. patriotism will leave no room for whining, prejudice, or anything that divides us. cohesion to the whole will leave no room for private piques and quarrels. there is only one team, and one objective. make this regiment great again. we have been defeated in the past. we will no longer be defeated. we will prevail. we will win. whether you agree with trump, or with this interpretation of trump, you will be struck by how simple the message was. every private citizen can understand it. every guy in a bar, every woman loading the dishwasher, every kid above the age of seven: they have heard the message. get aboard. get with the message. this is one team, not twenty, only one team. abandon your separate little worlds and concerns: there is only one large concern. i summon you to your duty, americans. this is what is expected. was there anything i said that you did not understand? good. now get on with it. you have your orders. i can see why the left is in deep panic, because this guy means what he says, and what he says is that this place needs shaking up, and some discipline, and that the ideas of the left: multiculturalism, diversity, racial specialness -are the expression of dissolution, decadence, and destruction of a coherent political order. trump is not arguing this point. trump assumes it, and he expects you to assume it. i have always thought that “diversity” was a stalking horse for civilizational and cultural dissolution.  by “diversity”, they do not mean diversity of thought or belief. they mean iron adherence to something hostile to civilized order. a free and liberal society requires an adherence to common standards. the very idea of common standards has been under  serious attack from the left and,  if i may say so, from the apostles of the 1%, who overlap with the left on many issues. do you agree with this view? if so, you suddenly have found someone who shares your views running the us federal government. this is why the left calls trump a fascist, which is their word for anyone not deceived by their claptrap, and not afraid to say so. the balls of trump, to call out the policies of five prior presidents sitting twenty feet from him! the effrontery, to condemn everything we have been doing for thirty-five years! he may grow as tiresome as thatcher became, but for the time being everyone has their orders. carry on! ____________________________________________________________________ commentary that i think hits the mark: peggy noonan  is apprehensive rex murphy is more hopeful for trump. the brevity of the speech had one unintended obscurity, or rather acted to obscure how momentous the trump ascendancy threatens or promises to be. just how much of a radical shift, a convulsion, that the moment of its occasion represented. trump has virtually cleared the table of politics as it has been practiced and played for over a generation. he has bulldozed the old verities of political practice. he has shattered the codes of party politics, routed the tired mages of the political panels, the think tanks and ngos. and he has utterly bypassed the hollow practices of virtue signalling and the insidious tribalism of identity politics. and as for the claustrophobic thought-amputations of political correctness, he has, correctly, shown nothing but scorn and dismissal. this is a wholesale reworking of the mode and understanding of modern american politics. piers morgan wishes him well: ten minutes that shook the world. january 21, 2017january 21, 2017 dalwhinnieadd a comment soros versus trump an excellent article in city journal on george soros illustrates the extent of the defeat of soros’ anti-national ideals by trump. as stefan kanfer writes: a few cases in point: last august, dc leaks, a group of adroit hackers, got into the soros files and released them. perhaps the most notorious of the disclosures concerned soros’s open society foundations, named in honor of sir karl popper. underneath its lofty rhetoric, the organization was clearly devoted to the eradication of national sovereignty. a key open society paper, hacked in its entirety, described the syrian refugee crisis as an opportunity to “shape conversations about rethinking migrations governance.” translation: use agitprop to flood europe and the u.s. with evacuees (among them some probable terrorists); make the old borders and institutions irrelevant; and, in the process, create a world liberated from the restraints of constitutionalism, american exceptionalism, free-market capitalism, and other obsolete isms. patrick buchanan, who must be revelling in finally being proven right about really large events, wrote: of brexit, the british decision to leave the eu, trump said this week, “people, countries want their own identity, and the u.k. wanted its own identity … so if you ask me, i believe others will leave.” is he not right? is it so shocking to hear a transparent truth? how could europe’s elites not see the populist forces rising? the european peoples wished to regain their lost sovereignty and national identity, and they were willing to pay a price to achieve it. the long list of villainy and evil promoted by soros is fully explored in the city journal article, “connoisseur of chaos”. january 20, 2017january 21, 2017 dalwhinnieadd a comment reagan versus trump the people who elected obama elected trump. more importantly, the people who elected ronald reagan elected trump. this is the more important contradiction in my mind. reagan and trump both threw down the gauntlet to their respective establishments in their times. both represented conservative insurrections. both came to power against all the weight of the media and the political establishments of their days. i remember the brouhaha of reagan coming to power in 1980, and it resembles the current frenzy about trump, though perhaps the trumpophobia is even more deranged than the anti-reagansim of the elites. in terms of policy reagan stood for the opening of markets, an invigorating and sincere anti-communism, a process of de-regulation from the policies set down by the new deal, and confrontation with the then soviet union. trump stands for almost the opposite, but not quite: an increased control of access to the us market, and an acceptance, within limits, of russia’s interests and legitimacy. in contradistinction to reagan and the soviet union, trump holds that russia is not the focus of evil in the modern world, and challenges the democratic party and security establishment line that russia is the prime enemy. each was elected as a candidate of the republican party.  each was elected by voters who rebelled against the presumed truths of their social betters, the democrats and the media. both were elected by an older, whiter electorate than their democratic opponents obtained. both were seeking to change the conventional agenda. yet the net direction of the policies of trump and reagan may be opposite one another. how is this apparent contradiction to be reconciled? in one sense, what they are both seeking to preserve is the united states of america, but each had a different idea of the principal threat. for reagan, it was communism, which looked like it might have prevailed if matters had continued as they had under jimmy carter. for trump, it is the very concept of a united states itself. by this i mean that he may have foreseen that the path the us is on will lead to a pauperized working class west of the alleghenies and that unlimited  immigration would reduce the us to something like the southern confederacy, with wealth accruing to the top and a middle class wholly dependent upon the slave owners. to bring the message up to date, replace “slave” with “robot” and you get a rough idea of the expected outcome. i do not say he had exactly this image in mind, only that he does not like where de-industrialization is taking the us. i find myself returning to the piece i wrote before christmas, “globalization, national sovereignty and democratic politics”. trump has gone for a combination of national sovereignty and democratic politics. hillary was working for hyper-globalization and democratic politics. and reagan in his time may never have thought about hyper-globalization, though the forces unleashed by his administration have led to it. my argument is that the same  sorts of people who elected reagan elected trump. thirty seven years after 1980, the issues have changed. i have changed. my priorities have changed. and i would rather live in a coherent nation than live in the best hotel in the world, whether it be called canada or the united states. january 17, 2017january 17, 2017 dalwhinnieadd a comment america’s lying media—part 2 if you thought that the lying msm in the us could sink any lower than the gutter, you’re right! they’re now in the sewer. not satisfied with being the cheering squads for hillary rodent clinton, traumatized by their election loss to donald trump, they are now attempting, with the help of rogue spooks, to delegitimize the incoming administration. good luck with that. the scurrilous “dossier” (sounds more impressive than “document”) that purports to reveal dirt on trump is so obviously fake it would be an embarassment to a satirical site like the onion. the media have sunk to the big lie technique; if you’re going to lie, make it a biggy. the last shreds of their credibility have gone up in smoke. the establishment is set on provoking international tensions and war around the world. after the failure of their jihadi pals in syria, where they have been defeated by the russia/iran/turkey coalition, the american deep state is hell-bent on creating an atmosphere of hysteria against russia to justify further aggressive actions against any state that will not bend to their will. after the collapse of communism, nato (read the us) gave commitments to the russian federation not to move military assets up to the russian border. these commitments have been broken many times over. no wonder the russians are concerned. the us administration under the man-child obama has been woefully irresponsible in international affairs. the real “aggression” in the world is coming from the us. we now know the wmd propaganda about iraq was a pack of lies. iraq was destroyed and the ground laid for the rise of islamic state. libya was attacked and destroyed, its infrastructure devastated, and its leader murdered, all under the watch of hillary rodent clinton. and for what purpose? it is now a failed state riven by jihadist bandits and consumed by civil war. egypt was almost destroyed by obama’s support of the morsi regime, but here the egyptian army saved the day. another smack on the head for the us deep state. to say that russia is a threat to europe is nonsense—it was a cia-backed coup in ukraine that generated chaos on russia’s border. this is all a cover for more us meddling in the middle east, particularly as they have been outmaneuvered by the russians and iranians. in the us, the democrat party is now the war party, busily whipping up hysteria in their intellectually challenged supporters and their lapdog media. this could all backfire on them very badly. if further enquiries reveal underhanded attempts of bureaucrats in the intelligence services to subvert the incoming administration, it could give trump a golden opportunity to cut them down to size and remind them that the people rule in america. this is the importance of the trump presidency. president trump should immediately set investigations in motion on january 20th. political appointees from the obama years in the cia and nsa should be fired immediately and heads placed on spikes. clapper, the dni, already has a solid record of lying to congress (thank you edward snowden). brennan and others in the cia must also go. if investigations of their behaviors result in prosecutions, jail them. as for the media, trump’s first press conference should set the tone for the future. return their favor—show them no respect. he should radically reshape communications with the public, through more youtube presentations, townhalls, social media and invite more citizen participation in questions. other than that, let the media sink into the swamp they have created; they will not be missed. after the glorious inauguration on the 20th, he should act swiftly, extensively and ruthlessly. real americans will love him for it. rebel yell january 14, 2017 rebel yell3 comments cliodynamics and projection of political instability peter urchin is a scientist, author and founder of a new transdisciplinary field of cliodynamics (from clio, the muse of history, and dynamics, the study of why things change with time), which uses the tools of complexity science and cultural evolution to study the dynamics of historical empires and modern nation-states. it is the “area of research at the intersection of historical macrosociology, economic history/cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.” in 2010 he stated the following: quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political instability (p. turchin and s. a. nefedov secular cycles princeton univ. press; 2009). in the united states, we have stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, and exploding public debt. these seemingly disparate social indicators are actually related to each other dynamically. they all experienced turning points during the 1970s. historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of looming political instability. very long ‘secular cycles’ interact with shorter-term processes. in the united states, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020. we are also entering a dip in the so-called kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles. this could mean that future recessions will be severe. in addition, the next decade will see a rapid growth in the number of people in their twenties, like the youth bulge that accompanied the turbulence of the 1960s and 1970s. all these cycles look set to peak in the years around 2020. he has since updated his views. my research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. my model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s… my model tracks a number of factors. some reflect the developments that have been noticed and extensively discussed: growing income and wealth inequality, stagnating and even declining well-being of most americans, growing political fragmentation and governmental dysfunction (see return of the oppressed). but most social scientists and political commentators tend to focus on a particular slice of the problem. it’s not broadly appreciated that these developments are all interconnected. our society is a system in which different parts affect each other, often in unexpected ways. furthermore, there is another important development that has been missed by most commentators: the key role of “elite overproduction” in driving waves of political violence, both in historical societies and in our own (see blame rich, overeducated elites as our society frays). as i wrote three years ago, “increasing inequality leads not only to the growth of top fortunes; it also results in greater numbers of wealth-holders. the ‘1 percent’ becomes ‘2 percent.’ or even more. … from 1983 to 2010 the number of american households worth at least $10 million grew to 350,000 from 66,000. rich americans tend to be more politically active than the rest of the population. … in technical terms, such a situation is known as ‘elite overproduction.’ … elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class. this happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. a large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions.” january 9, 2017january 9, 2017 arran gold3 comments craft whisky now that every young hip urban metrosexual is drinking “craft beer” made by a “hobbyist” with distinctly anti-trump views in a “microbrewery”, you don’t have to be left behind if you are older and wiser. beckon the rise of “craft whisky”! in particular, balcones from texas. after a tumultuous two years between the founders and the money, their new operation in waco is up to speed producing great whisky and a bourbon with texas corn. the old single malt that won all the awards, is what is being shipped now and it was made under the railroad trestle at the old location. the new production, in their historic warehouse property, will start shipping sometime in the summer. january 8, 2017january 8, 2017 arran gold1 comment 800-year financial perspective the linked article, “venetians, volcker and value-at-risk: 8 centuries of bond market reversals” by paul schmelzing, a financial historian atharvard university, delves into the esoteric details of the fixed income market but some stated facts are relevant for general discussion. paul schmelzing, harvard universitythe economist eugen von böhm-bawerk once opined that “the cultural level of a nation is mirrored by its interest rate: the higher a people’s intelligence and moral strength, the lower the rate of interest”. but as rates reached their lowest level ever in 2016, investors rather worried about the “biggest bond market bubble in history” coming to a violent end. the sharp sell-off in global bonds following the us election seems to confirm their fears. looking back over eight centuries of data, i find that the 2016 bull market was indeed one of the largest ever recorded. history suggests this reversal will be driven by inflation fundamentals, and leave investors worse off than the 1994 “bond massacre”. chart 1: the global risk free rate since 1285 chart 2: length and size of bull markets since 1285 as chart 2 shows, over 800 years only two previous episodes – the rally at the height of venetian commercial dominance in the 15th century, and the century following the peace of cateau-cambrésis  in 1559 – recorded longer continued risk-free rate compressions. the same is true if we measure the period by average decline in yields per annum, from peak to trough. with 33 bps, only the rallies following the war of the spanish succession, and the election of charles v as holy roman emperor surpass the bond performance since paul volcker’s “war on inflation”. the article goes on to conclude, “on balance, then, more than to a 1994-style meltdown, fixed income assets seem about to be confronted with dynamics similar to the second half of the 1960s, coupled with complications of a 2003-style curve steepening. by historical standards, this implies sustained double-digit losses on bond holdings, subpar growth in developed markets, and balance sheet risks for banking systems with a large home bias.” january 8, 2017january 8, 2017 arran gold1 comment “republicans to gut ethics office”, flavour added once again bbc hyperventilates about the misdeeds of republicans and informs us of the following. republicans have ditched a plan to gut the independent body that investigates political misconduct after a backlash. the lawmakers’ surprise vote to strip the office of congressional ethics of its independence prompted public uproar and a dressing down from donald trump… the secretive move, which overshadowed the first day of the 115th congress, was reversed in an emergency meeting. perhaps some background material is in order to put this in perspective. jun 10, 2010 (recall that during this period democrats controlled the house and the senate). liberal publication politico informs us of the following: lawmakers seek to gut ethics office the office of congressional ethics, a powerful symbol of democrats’ promise to “drain the swamp” in washington, is in danger of having its power stripped after the midterm elections. members of the congressional black caucus have led the charge, airing complaints about the aggressive, independent panel in a private session with house speaker nancy pelosi last month, and they’ve drafted a resolution that, if approved, would severely curtail the panel’s power. jan 2, 2017. liberal publication wapo informs us of the following: the 119-to-74 vote during a gop conference meeting means that the house rules package expected to be adopted tuesday, the first day of the 115th congress, would rename the office of congressional ethics (oce) as the office of congressional complaint review and place it under the oversight of the house ethics committee. under the proposed new rules, the office could not employ a spokesman, investigate anonymous tips or refer criminal wrongdoing to prosecutors without the express consent of the ethics committee, which would gain the power to summarily end any oce probe. the oce was created in 2008 to address concerns that the ethics committee had been too timid in pursuing allegations of wrongdoing by house members. under the current house ethics regime, the oce is empowered to release a public report of its findings even if the ethics committee chooses not to take further action against a member. the move to place the oce under the ethics committee’s aegis stands to please many lawmakers who have been wary of having their dirty laundry aired by the independent entity, but some republicans feared that rolling back a high-profile ethical reform would send a negative message as the gop assumes unified control in washington. a bit of a different perspective than bbc, don’t you think? on top of that, this perspective is from liberal publications, which highlights how out of touch bbc has become. january 8, 2017january 8, 2017 arran gold2 comments 1 234567next secured with sitelock recent posts david warren on trump january 22, 2017 american revolution redux january 22, 2017 regimental sergeant major trump addresses the regiment january 21, 2017 soros versus trump january 20, 2017 reagan versus trump january 17, 2017 recent commentsreagan versus trump - barrel strength on globalization, national sovereignty and democratic 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